"Afghanistan's budget remains more than 60% dependent on foreign aid"
Audio 06:03
Taliban fighters in Kabul on August 17 © HOSHANG HASHIMI / AFP
By: Stéphane Geneste Follow
13 mins
While the United States left Afghanistan on August 31, 2021 as promised, the Taliban now has a free hand in the country.
But the group must deal with trends within itself for the exercise of power.
Interview with Firouzeh Nahavandi, professor at the Free University of Brussels, specialist in South-West Asia and author of
Afghanistan
(Editions de Boeck).
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RFI: Let us first recall that there are different tendencies within the Taliban movement. And this is where the main challenge lies: to meet or, at least, to work together ...
Firouzeh Nahavandi
:
Yes, of course.
In the Taliban, there is a more radical group than the others: the Haqqani group.
He
comes from the group that was already fighting under the Soviets
.
Then there are those who say they are more inclined to work with the West.
Finally, there is above all the base of the Taliban which, for its part, is not completely controlled and which does not necessarily follow all the directives of the leaders.
We will therefore have to deal with all these people in order to be able to face the major problems that remain to be resolved and which, in any case, are those that any government taking power in Afghanistan would encounter.
One of the main problems is to feed the Afghan people.
Yes.
For me, the number one security issue is human security.
And in these problems, there is poverty and the fact that 50% of the population lives below the poverty line,
that there will be a problem of malnutrition that already exists
.
Nearly 25% of children at least are malnourished.
As winter will soon arrive, there will be, as every year, problems of food, heating, health ... A government must already be formed.
But whatever it is, these issues must be addressed.
Especially since Washington has made it known that the Taliban would not have access to assets held by the United States. So the Taliban are alone in front of themselves.
Indeed.
This is also probably why they do not cut all ties with the outside world.
Hence the importance of discussing also ...
Absolutely.
They are helped by China, Iran, Pakistan, Russia ... But they still
need the assets that have been frozen
.
And this is not nothing, because the revenues of Afghanistan and the budget of Afghanistan were and remain more than 60% dependent on external aid.
Without this aid - which should cease - without these assets, there will always be drug trafficking which is another plague in this country.
►
To read also:
Afghanistan: terrorism, "a new challenge for the Taliban in power"
The UN estimates that the Taliban's criminal activities earn them between $ 300 million and $ 1.5 billion a year. How to combine these narcotraffics that you evoke and the normalized global economy
?
This is
the problem with drug trafficking
.
Falling into another system is very difficult, especially since it is relatively easy money.
This influences the political system, which raises the issue of corruption, an equally important topic in Afghanistan.
It also generates easy income in the countryside where many peasants prefer to take care of the poppy cultivation rather than kill themselves at work in very difficult environmental conditions.
In this context,
how to gain or regain the trust of the populations
?
If I really had the answer, it would be settled.
This is going to be difficult, because anyway the Taliban may have supporters all over the place who are hoping that they will restore peace and stability.
There is nevertheless a very big mistrust of the population of the cities - in particular Kabul -,
of intellectuals, artists, women
.
To reassure them, it will really be necessary to give them a lot of pledges.
Can we also be afraid of the “
brain drain
”, if it does take place
?
Yes quite.
The Taliban have also tried to use this argument to prevent the West from exfiltrating certain Afghans, such as the few brains who remain or who have been trained in recent years.
It is also going to be a huge problem that any future government will have to face.
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See also:
Afghanistan: opium, the main remedy in the face of the crisis
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