Occupation governments usually collapse with their first withdrawal, so the government installed by the occupation becomes completely naked, as he realizes that he has been building only palaces of sand and paper throughout the years of his occupation, and mangoes are planted in Siberia, the American occupation did not dispute the issue of whether the Kabul government will fall or not ?
Rather, he was arguing - and he made a mistake in his assessment - about the expected period of its fall, so he expected it at first two years and then 6 months, only to be surprised by its fall before the completion of his withdrawal, which he set himself, and changed his timing more than once.
The Russian-Chinese interest is being strengthened today in Afghanistan to capture the historical moment and win the Afghan prize by filling the void left by the departure of the Western alliance.
In light of the rising stock of blame and accusations between the poles of the Western alliance, specifically between America, Britain and France, then between American institutions such as intelligence, defense and the White House, and finally between the partners of the former Afghan government, the opponents of the West were strengthening their positions and weaving relations with the Taliban, and even seeking to market and polish them as the case Russia and China. Here the big question arises: Will the new Afghanistan, under the shadow of Taliban rule, resort to the policy of axes? Or will it remain faithful to the history of the Afghan state by being keen on neutrality, and distancing itself from the policy of regional and international axes.
The Russian-Chinese interest is being strengthened today in Afghanistan to capture the historical moment and win the Afghan prize by filling the void left by the departure of the Western alliance. Most surprisingly, the latter seeks to deepen this vacuum in favor of its political and international opponents when it attacks the Taliban; Thinking that he avenge his defeat by thwarting whoever was the cause of it. This alliance does not know that it is presenting the future Afghan government and the future Afghanistan on a silver platter to its strategic and even historical opponents and enemies.
The important regional powers of Afghanistan - namely Russia, China, and possibly Pakistan - are in agreement on a policy of genuine cooperation with the Taliban and the future Afghan government. Russia and China are quite clear that they were assured by the Taliban of visiting the movement's officials before the fall of Kabul, and their pledge to them to control the groups required for both countries residing on their lands. This is in addition to guaranteeing China’s investments, whether with regard to the coal mine southeast of the capital, which is estimated to be worth about 3 billion dollars, or with regard to the oil field that China seeks to extract in Faryab, northern Afghanistan, with a value of 400 million dollars, a field that it has the right to invest for a period of time. 25 years. There is also a power plant in Sari Pul in northern Afghanistan, which is scheduled to produce 300 megawatts, valued at $400 million, a project that will greatly alleviate power outages in the country.
As for Pakistan, it gained strategic depth with the arrival of its ally the Taliban, and deprived its enemy India of the depth it was enjoying in Afghanistan. She expelled her from her soft borders. Therefore, Pakistan is now fully concerned with marketing the movement, despite its fears of the presence of the Pakistani Taliban movement hostile to it on Afghan soil. There is Iran, which adopts a policy of caution and caution, and its silence is due to the desire of its regional allies - China and Russia - to deal with the Taliban, as the Iranian setback is huge in Afghanistan, and its investments for decades have evaporated today with the departure of all its local allies from the leaders of the Hazara Shiites from the Afghan scene, In addition to weakening its other allies from the forces of the Afghan Northern Alliance.
India remains, and despite the caution it is trying to show, its joining the "Pimp" organization that it includes with Australia, America and Japan to confront China according to the American strategy made it the subject of criticism from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. India is taking the hostile position of the Taliban and the new approach, as a result of deep historical accumulations. The name of the "Hindu Kush" mountains known in Afghanistan means the mountains of "Indian killers", and the famous Indian proverb says "Oh, our gods, save us from the poison of cobras, and the revenge of the Afghans." And the Indians do not forget the day Sultan Mahmud of Ghaznawi entered New Delhi and insisted on destroying Samunat, the largest idol worshiped by the Indians, without paying attention to all the temptations presented to him, until I reached the point of giving him the weight of the idol in gold. grandson of its seller.
During the days of the Pakistani separation from India in 1947, the Afghan Pashtun tribes had the greatest role in seizing the two-thirds of present-day Kashmir, which is today under Pakistani control. More recently, after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989, the latter played an important role in launching the Kashmir uprising in 1989, as most of the Kashmiri armed groups received their training in Afghanistan. All of this pushes India to oppose any Afghan government with an Islamic orientation, especially if the Taliban is at its head and it enjoys strong and historical relations with Pakistan, India's opponent.
It is clear that, in light of the Afghan-Afghan negotiations - which practically moved from Doha to Kabul - and their meetings with the Afghan opposition forces, such as the leader of the Afghan Islamic Party, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, former President Hamid Karzai, and the head of the reconciliation committee Abdullah Abdullah, the Taliban are sending messages to the West as well. Those who depended on them - specifically the last two - will be present in the next government. This helps the movement in marketing it to the West, especially since the Taliban is fully aware that the new Afghanistan is not the Afghanistan it left on the day it was deposed from power in 2001; The country's economy is linked today to the economy of the West, and Afghanistan cannot be managed in the old Taliban way through the shadow economy, with banks and money changers on the streets, and the salaries of huge state employees, in addition to the freezing of $9 billion in American banks.With all this, the movement finds that it is in its interest to maintain the relationship with the West, and not to be drawn into the policy of the axes, despite the necessity of benefiting from it and maneuvering between it.
The West, despite its defeated and defeated exit from Afghanistan, will still need it, specifically with regard to stopping or preventing the flow of Afghan refugees, which will exhaust it and its allies in the region.
Therefore, it is in his interest to stabilize the situation there, in a way that prevents people from leaving. In addition to the file of the armed groups required of him, residing in Afghanistan, which forces him to deal with the Taliban to control these groups, and not allow them to use the state against the outside, which is what the movement pledged. Perhaps what the British Chief of Defense Staff Nick Carter indicated is important when he said, “We have to hold our nerve, give them a chance to form a government, and give them plenty of time to show their potential, maybe this Taliban is different from the Taliban of the nineties that people remember.” But just as Afghanistan Today is different from Afghanistan yesterday, and the Taliban today is no longer the Taliban of yesterday. Will the West today be different from the West of yesterday, so that it cooperates with the next government, and does not seek to thwart it, so that the region and the world pay the price of new adventures?!