In the midst of a series of heavy rain disasters, the Japan Meteorological Agency's study group has compiled a draft report stating that research institutes and private businesses should also be allowed to forecast floods and sediment-related disasters that only the national government has been able to issue. I did.
If realized, it is expected that it will lead to information dissemination in a narrow area and a call for earlier evacuation, but on the other hand, concrete examination for operation such as how to prevent confusion with the forecast of the existing country will be an issue.
Experts such as disasters participated in the meeting of the study group held on the 24th, and a draft report based on the discussions so far was presented.
According to this, in order to promptly issue evacuation information and prepare for the forecast of floods and sediment disasters from municipalities and companies, information longer than the current forecast provided by the government, factories and companies He points out that there are various needs such as information that is more specific to the area, such as the location of the city.
In order to respond to these, we concluded that it is effective to allow research institutes and private businesses to forecast floods and sediment-related disasters and provide information based on the latest research.
On the other hand, in order to prevent confusion with the forecasts of the countries that are already in operation, the information is provided to local governments and companies, and it is limited to users who understand the characteristics and precautions of the forecast and conclude a contract. The conditions of are included.
Since the simple procedure that can be done with an application such as a smartphone may not be fully understood by the user, it does not fit into the "contract", and the framework that can provide the forecast to the general public is forgotten. rice field.
From next month, the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism will receive reports from the study group to discuss specific operational methods such as ensuring accuracy and preventing confusion with national forecasts.
Why flood and mudflow forecasts to research institutes and private companies
In the first place, why did you decide to allow non-national research institutes and private companies to forecast floods and mudflows?
Forecasts for earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic tsunamis, meteorology, floods, etc. are based on the "Meteorological Service Act" enacted in 1952, about 70 years ago. You are obliged to receive it.
Of these, the forecasts for floods and landslides that inform river flooding are currently difficult to predict accurately due to various factors such as river conditions and the susceptibility of slopes to collapse. Forecast is not accepted.
Currently, forecasts by the Japan Meteorological Agency are directly linked to the evacuation behavior of residents, so based on the idea of transmitting highly accurate information, they are announced for a period of several hours for each municipality or river.
The idea is to emphasize the accuracy of forecasts so that inaccurate information does not cause confusion in society.
For example, regarding floods, the Japan Meteorological Agency has published a "flood forecast" for large rivers in collaboration with the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism or prefectures, but the water level is forecast up to 6 hours ahead.
However, in response to the flooding of rivers and sediment-related disasters caused by heavy rains in recent years, local governments may target more detailed areas or a few days ahead of the current situation in order to provide early evacuation information and prepare staff. There are increasing calls for forecasts.
Under these circumstances, some universities and research institutes are also conducting research to predict the danger of floods from a stage more than a day ago using the latest simulation technology.
For this reason, the study group has been discussing how to set technical standards and how far the forecasts can be provided, with a view to permitting forecasts to private businesses.
As a result, forecasts of floods and sediment-related disasters have a large social impact, such as being directly linked to disaster prevention measures by residents. However, it was concluded that only specific users such as local governments, factories, and facilities would be allowed.
In addition, the report recommends that the national government and prefectures should play a central role in providing disaster prevention information, and that the national government should actively utilize the technologies of research institutes and private businesses to advance the sophistication of forecasts. doing.
Information utilization of private sector and research institutes Good direction
Professor Katsuya Yamori of the Institute for Disaster Prevention, Kyoto University, who is a member of the study group, said, "There are various needs for forecasting as disasters intensify. I think this is a good direction. However, since forecasts related to disaster prevention are important information related to human life, they should be handled carefully, and their accuracy must be reliable. "
On top of that, "Public institution forecasts have been mainly for wide areas in prefectures and municipalities, but private forecasts are for villages and more local, such as what is the danger of this cliff and what will happen in 30 minutes. It is expected that even short-term disaster phenomena can be captured. It would be great if we could make forecasts for the private sector in a way that complements national information. "
Private meteorological company "Draft report is a nice move"
Regarding this draft report, Mr. Dai Ishikawa of the forecast center of the private weather information company "Weathernews" said, "Although we have called for the risk of heavy rain, the prediction technology is advanced for the specific risk of inundation and sediment-related disasters. However, I was very happy because I couldn't tell because of legal restrictions. "
On top of that, "If forecasts can be made for specific users, we will meet the needs of the recipients of information such as local governments and companies. By providing detailed information, we will take early measures to minimize damage. I think we can get it taken. "
On the other hand, he said that the provision to an unspecified number of residents should be carefully considered. "Now, we are in an environment where anyone can easily access various information on the Internet. Flood forecasts are also regulated. I feel that it is necessary to move to increase literacy at the same time by making it possible for people who want to get information, rather than being ordinary. "The river near your house is dangerous" or "The mountain behind your house" It is dangerous, ”he said, and I would like to provide forecasts that will lead to the early evacuation behavior of the general public.”
Expert "A big step towards providing flood forecasts"
Professor Kei Yoshimura of the Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, who is conducting research on flood forecasting, said, "I think this is a big step in the sense that the door has been opened toward the provision of flood forecasting. Is becoming more and more rigorous, and we can expect technological advances. "
On that basis, what kind of standards will the Japan Meteorological Agency set when examining flood forecasts for research institutes and private businesses, and whether it will be possible to realize the "utilization of various forecasting technologies to the extent possible" required by the proposal. I want to pay attention.
Also, regarding the publication of forecasts to the general public, which was to be discussed continuously, "Even if the accuracy of forecasts is improved, it is meaningless unless information is transmitted. It is necessary to continue to discuss how to communicate, such as whether to organize it. "