(Economic Observation) The increase in housing prices in large and medium-sized cities has dropped across the board. Is China's property market ushering in an "inflection point"?
China News Service, Beijing, August 16th. Title: The increase in housing prices in large and medium-sized cities has dropped across the board. Is China's property market ushering in an "inflection point"?
China News Agency reporter Pang Wuji
The signs of cooling in the Chinese property market have further emerged.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on the 16th, in July, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 51 cities saw a month-on-month increase in new house prices, and 41 cities saw a month-on-month increase in second-hand house prices, both of which hit a new low during the year. .
In the same month, the average month-on-month increase of new homes and second-hand homes was 0.3% and 0.1%, which were also the lowest levels this year.
The property market.
Photo by Sun Rui
Cooling is not a local phenomenon.
Official data show that in July, the month-on-month growth of new and second-hand housing prices in first-, second- and third-tier cities fell, and even declined.
Housing prices "turning point" looming
While the growth rate of new homes has fallen, second-hand housing prices in many parts of China have taken the lead in a substantial decline in July.
Official data show that among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities where second-hand house prices fell in the month reached 26, that is, nearly 40% of the cities' second-hand house prices fell.
Among them, the sales price of second-hand housing in third-tier cities fell from a month-on-month increase to a decrease of 0.1%.
The second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen, which had the largest increase in second-hand housing prices, have also fallen year-on-year for three consecutive months.
Experts believe that the rare strong financial supervision and administrative control at the same time have promoted the continuous cooling of housing prices.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, pointed out that in July, Shanghai implemented the second-hand housing listing price verification, Xi'an, Shaoxing, Wuxi and other cities issued second-hand housing guidance prices, and Chengdu announced the second batch of second-hand housing guidance price communities, and the regulation of second-hand housing guidance prices The effect is released quickly.
In addition, banks have tightened even more mortgage loans for the second-hand housing market.
This makes the effect of regulation in the field of second-hand housing more significant.
Take the first-tier city of Shenzhen as an example. In July, the price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen fell by 0.4% month-on-month, and the decline further expanded.
The year-on-year growth rate of second-hand house prices in Shenzhen has narrowed to 7%, and is no longer in the “leading” position.
The decline in market enthusiasm is not only reflected in housing prices.
According to calculations by the China Index Research Institute, in a single month in July, affected by the continuous tightening of the property market control policies, the sales area and sales of commercial housing nationwide fell 8.5% and 7.1% year-on-year respectively.
This is the first time that the sales data during the year showed negative growth year-on-year in a single month.
During the year, the property market was regulated 380 times
The decline in market enthusiasm is related to the continued increase in regulation.
On the 16th, Dalian City increased regulation of the property market.
The local New Deal stipulates that in the 5 districts of Dalian, newly purchased commercial houses need to be listed and traded at least 5 years from the date of online signing and filing; second-hand houses need to obtain the "Real Property Certificate" for at least 3 years before they can be listed and traded.
The New Deal also restricted the premium rate of residential land transfer in Dalian.
According to the statistics of the Shell Research Institute, in July, Beijing, Chengdu, Dongguan, Foshan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Hefei, Nanjing, Xiamen, Shanghai, Shaoxing, Shenzhen, Wuxi, Wuhan, Xi’an, Chongqing and other places issued 28 real estate regulation policies. The frequency is higher than that in June, and most of the policies are the strengthening of the previous control policies and the checking of deficiencies.
Taking Shanghai and Shenzhen as examples, the purchase restriction policies have been introduced for divorce purchases to increase the rigor of the policy. This is also the main reason for the recent market enthusiasm that has continued to weaken.
According to statistics from the Centaline Real Estate Research Center, since 2021, various departments and localities have issued more than 380 real estate-related policies, with an average of more than 50 relevant regulations issued per month.
The frequency of this regulation has exceeded 2020 and 2019.
Some cities with high housing market enthusiasm, such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, Dongguan, etc., have repeatedly increased regulation.
On the basis of local and city-specific policies, the supervision and interviews of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have become the "baton" for regulation and control since the beginning of this year.
Recently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development interviewed five cities: Yinchuan, Xuzhou, Jinhua, Quanzhou, and Huizhou.
These five places have seen a significant cooling in second-hand housing prices in recent months.
The data picture shows the high-rise buildings in Chongqing.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Chao
The first "restriction order" issued during the year
Among the numerous "price limit" and "limit increase" policies, a "limitation order" issued by Yueyang City has attracted attention.
The local New Deal stated that the actual transaction price of commercial housing sales shall not be higher than the record price, nor shall it be lower than 85% of the record price.
Experts believe that this sends two major signals: First, the big rises and falls are not the purpose of regulation.
Control policies need to maintain the steady development of the real estate market, and house prices will remain sideways or fall slightly for a certain period of time, so that the income level of residents will slowly catch up with the increase in house prices.
This will not only maintain market stability and create conditions for reforms, but also slowly reverse the economy's excessive dependence on real estate and resolve risks.
Second, at present, the turning point of the real estate market has slowly appeared.
When housing prices in hot cities "do not move", some third- and fourth-tier cities will face greater adjustment pressure. At this time, rationalizing inventory and preventing the property market from falling too quickly are also important policies.
Is there still a chance in China's real estate market? Different people may have different opinions. Those who attempt to arbitrage through real estate speculation will feel that the risk is increasing; it is also difficult for high-debt real estate companies to continue to expand rapidly through high leverage; but companies that transform and operate down-to-earth may find themselves in new areas such as urban renewal and rental housing. New profit margins. The housing needs of ordinary people will be more protected by policies. (Finish)