At 60, Ebrahim Raïssi, who was invested Thursday August 5 by the Iranian Parliament, takes the reins of the country with immense challenges to meet, but little room for maneuver.

First challenge, undoubtedly the one on which this protege of the Supreme Guide is the most awaited: to recover the Iranian economy.

He takes the head of a country affected by a violent economic and social crisis, amplified by the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Iran, which was already suffering from structural economic problems, plunged in 2018, when the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, before reinstating sanctions against Tehran.

Lift sanctions on the Iranian economy

To reverse the trend, the new president has a first lever, that of diplomacy. If it manages to bring the nuclear negotiations that are being held in Vienna between Iran and the West to a successful conclusion and to lift the American sanctions, Tehran could again export its oil, the volume of which has fallen by 2 million barrels. gross per day before 2018 to 500,000 today. A good way for Ebrahim Raïssi to quickly get money into the state coffers. 

With the possible lifting of sanctions, "we will have a stabilization of the macroeconomic environment with an acceleration of growth and a fall in inflation", details Thierry Coville, specialist in the Iranian economy at the Institute of Relations international and strategic (IRIS) in Paris. But it will be necessary to support the expectations of the population because "one of the risks is that people think that everything will improve immediately and find themselves very disappointed", warns the researcher.

On Iranian nuclear power, Ebrahim Raïssi has already set the tone. Tehran's new strongman says he is ready to continue negotiations, but not at any cost: "We will certainly seek to obtain the lifting of oppressive sanctions. But we will not tie the living conditions of the Nation to the will. foreigners, "he warned from his induction speech Tuesday.

His line is that of the Iranian ultraconservatives, hostile to any rapprochement with the West, in particular with the United States.

Yet for Pierre Berthelot, director of the review "Strategic Orientations", interviewed by France 24, it is above all a "posture".

"By choosing an ultraconservative at its head, Iran sends a sign that negotiations with the West on nuclear power but also on Iran's regional influence will be very tough. But the regime wants the lifting of the sanctions which are very penalizing for the Iranian economy, so it is likely that we will eventually reach the parameters of a balanced negotiation, even if it will be difficult and long. Iran will be much more demanding and more suspicious ". 

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The fact remains that for Ebrahim Raïssi, as for all Iranian presidents who preceded him, foreign policy decisions are subject to the approval of the Supreme Leader.

The room for maneuver is delicate.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sets the tempo in this matter, including for the nuclear negotiations, and Ebrahim Raïssi performs the score.

The crisis with Israel, the Taliban in Afghanistan

Another burning issue in progress: relations with Israel. Ebrahim Raïssi takes office in the midst of escalating tensions. The Hebrew state accuses Tehran of being behind a drone attack on an oil tanker owned by an Israeli billionaire in the Arabian Sea on July 29. The attack killed two of the crew. A serious incident that could tip the two countries into a "cold war", according to experts in Iranian-Israeli relations.

In the case of Israel, although Iranian foreign policy is dictated by the Supreme Leader, the speeches of the Iranian president and the tone adopted by him can, in either case, fuel tensions or extinguish them. embers. In 2012, former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who called to "wipe Israel off the map", caused one of the worst crises in history between the two countries.

Finally, in the region, Tehran has cause for concern.

The Taliban are advancing at high speed in neighboring Afghanistan, where they are very likely to seize power within a few weeks.

"They have fairly normal relations at the moment, but once they are in power in Afghanistan, the Taliban could turn against Iran, since Iran is a Shiite theocracy and for the Taliban [who target the Shiites in their own country], the Shiites are not Muslims ", explains on France 24 sociologist Farhad Khosrokhavar, director of studies at the School of Higher Studies in Social Sciences (EHESS).

Ecological challenge

Far from foreign policy, the new Iranian president must also face one of the most severe droughts that Iran has known in decades. An ecological challenge that Iran can no longer afford to neglect. "The environmental crisis in Iran is a reality", notes Thierry Coville, but so far, "one has the impression that the government is not able to put in place a comprehensive policy".

The successive water cuts this year fueled the anger of the Iranians, who denounced a distribution system plagued by corruption through demonstrations violently repressed in July, in particular in the province of Khuzestan, on the border with Iraq. "Water resources are exhausted," said reformist journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi, also mentioning "the destruction of natural resources" under pressure from certain economic activities. "Unfortunately," he laments, "if it rains twice is enough for those in charge to forget about it completely."

But according to Clément Therme, associate researcher at the European University Institute in Florence, "the causes of the problem [are outside the scope of the president's competence" because the protection of natural resources in Iran goes against the "economic interests of companies. "of the parastatal sector which represents 20 to 30% of the Iranian economy. However, the latter are beyond the control of the executive.

In particular, the Guardians of the Revolution - a force responsible for defending the ideals of the Islamic Republic - which own many public works, logistics and major urban development companies (dams, roads, ports, etc.).

Companies that operate as parastatal entities without clear traceability, "escaping the control of the President of the Islamic Republic as well as tax and benefiting from preferential places during calls for tenders", explained in June to France 24 Jonathan Piron , historian specializing in Iran for the Etopia research center in Brussels.

Fight against corruption

For Ebrahim Raïssi, who presented himself throughout his campaign as a champion in the fight against corruption, the challenge seems almost impossible to meet.

However, he is expected at the turn by the Iranians.

If he manages to score points by limiting the privileges, the new president could regain the confidence of the people, a big bet.

"The crisis of confidence [vis-à-vis the authorities] is deep and widespread," warns reformist journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi.

This is evidenced by the presidential election in June, which saw the lowest turnout (48.8%) in such an election since the proclamation of the Islamic Republic in 1979.

The tragedy of the Ukrainian airliner (176 dead) shot down in January 2020, and for which the authorities only recognized their responsibility after three days of denial, as well as the bloody repression of two waves of protests, in the winter 2017-2018 and in November 2019, have left their mark.

"What has caused the most problems is the people's confidence which has been damaged", had himself recognized Ebrahim Raïssi during his enthronement, aware of the stakes.

With AFP

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