On August 5, 2021, Ibrahim Raisi, the cleric who led the Iranian judicial system, officially became President of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

At 17:00 Iranian time, the inauguration ceremony of the newly elected president began in the parliament (Majlis).

Security measures are amazing: empty streets and closed shops are okay.

But for security reasons, the sky and airports in the provinces of Tehran (with the country's main airport and international flights), Alborz and Qazvin were closed over Iran for three hours.

The inauguration ceremony was broadcast on all state television channels in the country and became one of the main world news.

Because the new president of Iran, unlike his predecessor Hassan Rouhani, does not at all bring hope and good signals to the Western hemisphere.

Moreover, Iran's missile and nuclear program, as well as the activities of Iranian proxies in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, Latin America and even Africa, are so strong that it became a serious stumbling block for a return to the JCPOA 2015 nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) , which was actively worked on by the Biden and Rouhani administrations.

Ibrahim Raisi is also the first ever Iranian president to come under US sanctions for violating human rights long before he took office.

Today, 115 officials from 73 countries of the world attended the 13th inauguration ceremony, including ten heads of state, 20 speakers of parliaments, 11 foreign ministers, ten other various ministers and special envoys.

A close examination of the composition of the participants can provide insight into the future foreign policy of Iran under President Raisi.

The EU is quite representatively represented - albeit not the first persons, but the Vice President for Foreign Affairs of the EU Enrique Mora, Stefan Clement is the EU Ambassador to Vienna, Bruno Scholl is the head of Iran's support service in the EU.

By the way, let us note that the rear of Tehran in the EU is Austro-German.

An important touch: the ceremony was attended by the special representative of the Pope Christophe Zakia Alcassis, the Vatican's ambassador to Pakistan.

Yes, of course, there will be no representatives of the United States at the inauguration - but this is not surprising, because diplomatic relations between the countries have been severed since 1979, since the taking of hostages at the American embassy, ​​and, despite the latest Obama-Ruhani warming, everything is all over again returned to normal - in the nuclear winter.

But it seems that the spiritual leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, does not regret this at all, for, having proclaimed his new motto "XXI century belongs to Asia!"

By those who have expressed their desire to come to it, we can see with whom the new government of Raisi will (and will not) work.

So, Iran will be focused on the nearest neighbors in the region and the Asian region (Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, South Korea, Bangladesh).

The EU and international organizations - the UN and OPEC.

To the Eurasian space and cooperation with Russia, Latin America (Venezuela and Brazil) and - which may surprise some - with Africa.

Of the most interesting: the "pro-American" head of the Afghan government, Ashraf Ghani, flew to Tehran to fight the Taliban *, whom Iran and the IRGC seem to support.

Bashar al-Assad did not arrive, sending the speaker of the Syrian parliament Hammuda Sabbag and Prime Minister Hussein Arnus to Tehran.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kazimi did not come, although Iraq is perhaps Tehran's most important foreign policy priority today, as the Iranian route to Syria and the Mediterranean lies through it.

The fact that instead of the prime minister - the main one in terms of influence and status in the hierarchy of the Iraqi government - rather formal President Barham Saleh flew in, is a harbinger of a future confrontation between Baghdad and Tehran and possible imminent attempts by the Iranian ayatollahs to remove Prime Minister al-Kazimi (this forecast is supported by the many-day visits of the head Iranian intelligence MOIS Mahmoud Alawi in July in Baghdad and meetings with the same Saleh, speaker of parliament and head of Iraqi intelligence, bypassing the prime minister).

Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the outgoing State Duma, flew out to represent Russia at Raisi's inauguration.

In the State Duma, which will be elected in September 2021, Volodin will no longer be speaker.

The most widely represented continent at the inauguration of the eighth president of Iran is, believe it not, Africa.

Tanzania, Ghana, Nigeria, Zanzibar, Senegal, African Union representative, Kenya, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau, South Africa and others.

Lovers of luxury can smile: Louis Vlavonu, Speaker of the Benin Parliament, will be present at the inauguration.

Which once again underlines the fact that Iran is focused on African lands rich in rare earth metals, ores and minerals, expanding the expansion of its main military-political external asset - Hezbollah.

By the way, the vice-president of the Lebanese Hezbollah Sheikh Naim Qasim is among the invited top officials.

And it is understandable: Hezbollah is the striking force of the Iranian regime, providing Tehran's expansion not only to the Mediterranean Sea, but also a military-political-economic presence in Latin America (getting closer and closer to the United States) and Africa, which is rich in resources.

The author of this column could not miss this memorable and great historical event and therefore decided to congratulate Mr. Raisi personally - when will there be such a luxurious occasion?

You may ask: who are you to address personally the Iranian President?

In order to congratulate the president, you probably need to at least know who you are.

For it looks strange, you must agree: you write congratulations in a serious edition to someone who does not know you, and you also call your column a "congratulatory letter."

A letter is generally something personal.

Well, don't worry about that.

Mr. Raisi knows exactly who I am.

On October 3, 2019, almost two years before his triumph, his subordinate ordered my temporary arrest in the courtroom of the prison for Iranian political prisoners, Evin.

On Saturday, October 5, 2019, the next court hearing was to take place, which would determine my fate.

The papers in my case were handed over to the judge by the IRGC officer who participated in my seizure at the hotel.

Along with the papers, words in Farsi flew to the judge's table, among which I heard his name: "Raisi".

- Oh, Raisi?

- the judge meaningfully and respectfully accepted the papers, nodded his head while reading them, and soon the translator, at my persistent request, translated the essence of the accusation to me: “Working for the MOSSAD and the State of Israel”.

My shock was so deep that for a minute I could not move or say even a word.

I was in Israel for only a few days on an assignment for Komsomolskaya Pravda in 2004, and in my very first letter to the Iranian embassy in 2013, I clearly stated the circumstances of this trip, specifying whether they were an obstacle to a possible visit to Iran.

And I never went to Israel again, did not have relatives there or an Israeli passport.

To hear such an accusation six years later, being captured by Iranian commandos at night in a hotel, without notifying relatives, without providing a consul or a lawyer, wearing a black hijab and wearing a mask over our eyes, was a very extreme experience.

When the speech came back to me, I asked the judge (subordinate Mr. Raisi) and investigators from the IRGC.

- Tell me, during these two days that I am in Iran, has something happened in friendly Russian-Iranian relations?

They all laughed.

- No, we are friends with Russia, so we will judge you as an Israeli spy.

So I became the first Russian citizen in history to be arrested and imprisoned in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

My arrest made a lot of noise in Iran - in a word, Mr. Raisi knows exactly who I am, so I hope my congratulations will definitely reach the addressee.

So, Mr. Raisi, please accept my congratulations on your assumption of office as President of the Islamic Republic!

You are hosting the country at a very difficult time - during Iran's paused negotiations on a return to the nuclear deal, which should unlock billions of assets in the country, against the backdrop of numerous "water" protests that escalated into social strikes of workers in the petrochemical industry, and more.

Despite your public statements that you want to lift sanctions on Iran and the JCPOA 5 + 1 nuclear deal, it is known that the Iranian Security Council recently rejected the draft deal with the United States.

Many critics of the Iranian regime rejoiced: you will not get a deal with the Americans and the next four years of your rule will be marked by a deep economic crisis, worsening social problems and growing protest moods.

But you and I know how cynical the West is.

Therefore, everything is not as unambiguously gloomy as it seems at first glance.

In recent days, the American Republicans in their media and social networks have been quoting spiritual leader Ali Khamenei, who addressed the Biden administration and the collective West with a laconic message: "We will bury you."

One of your fiercest enemies - Mark Dubovitz of the Democracy Defense Fund, one of the co-authors of Trump's sanctions policy against Iran - wrote on Twitter about your Security Council's rejection of the deal with the United States: “Raisi knows she can squeeze more out of Rob Mally (Biden's special envoy for Iran. -

Yu.Yu.

).

Khamenei understands: why not try?

As time drags on with the deal with the Americans - new or old - we all know very well that Iran is rapidly approaching its cherished goal of joining the club of nuclear powers.

I have written more than once about Iran's achievements in the nuclear industry and about Iran's ambitions to become the No. 1 in Western Asia in the field of nuclear medicine.

We know about the opening of the first specialized innovative nuclear center in July this year.

But now we are talking about something else.

That it is highly likely that by the end of 2021 Iran will have a nuclear bomb and you will become the first president of a nuclear power in the history of the Islamic republic.

Here I want to cite the American edition of the National Review from 03/19/2021, which writes:

“We warned back in February 2016 that Iran probably already has nuclear weapons that can be delivered using missiles and satellites. <...> Based on reports from the IAEA and other sources, we estimate that, prior to 2003, Iran produced nuclear weapons components such as bridged detonators and neutron initiators, conducted non-fissionable explosion experiments using an implosive nuclear device (hello earthquakes!) and worked on the design of a nuclear warhead for the Shahab III missile. <...> When our WWII Manhattan Project reached this stage, the United States was only a few months away from the creation of the first atomic bombs. This was the status of Iran 18 years ago. <...> Thus, by 2003 Iran was already a threshold nuclear missile state.For the past decade, the intelligence community has estimated annually that Iran can develop nuclear weapons in one year or less. On the other hand, less than a month ago, independent analysts from the Institute of Science and International Security estimated that Iran had only three months for the first nuclear weapon and five months for the second. "

Earlier, when I listened to fragments of Mr. Khamenei's sermons, I did not understand why he always, over and over again, like a mantra, mentions the hypocrisy of the West.

I seem to be getting closer to understanding now.

Just last week, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said: “The Vienna talks cannot go on forever.

Washington will see if Tehran is ready to make the necessary decisions. "

That is, the US publicly coerces Iran into a deal, warning of the closing of the "window of opportunity" and holding the multibillion-dollar Iranian assets blocked.

But at the same time, the United States turns a blind eye to the record for seven months of 2021, Iranian oil exports to China.

In July, its exports amounted to 843,233 official barrels per day only!

Since January 21, Iran has delivered 139 million barrels to China, which exceeded the indicators of 2020 and gave Tehran about $ 8.5 billion to earn.

In July, we tracked Iran's oil exports at 843,233 BPD.

#China again was the biggest importer.

Since Jan 21 #Iran has shipped 139 mil barrels to China, surpassing the figure for the whole of the previous year, and benefitting Iran to around $ 8.5 billion.

@ UANI # UANIShipping # OOTTpic.twitter.com / H5bgm562Ka

- Claire Jungman (@claire_jungman) August 2, 2021

Yes, the deal is dragging on, but the almost official US representation in the Middle East - the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - has been secretly negotiating with you through Iraq for almost a year to become a wholesale buyer of Iranian oil at a discount and sell it at market prices.

In exchange for the security of their oil infrastructure from the Yemeni Houthis.

Well, in general, if the White House asked bin Salman to help Iran and allows him to open an Iranian embassy in Riyadh, it means that Washington, in fact, not in words, will help you survive the sanctions.

Mr. Raisi, I - forgive that in advance - I also want to congratulate you on the fact that it is you who are destined to renew diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, and the opening of their embassy in Tehran.

I would not be surprised that Saudi billions of dollars will be invested in Iran's oil infrastructure in four "your" years, and this will help the country survive the sanctions (unless, of course, you make a new deal, which I personally would not be surprised at all).

While the British The Guardian hypocritically recalls your sins of 1988, accusing you of “systematically sending up to 3,000 people to the slaughterhouse,” I quote: “At the time of the massacres, Raisi was 28 years old, he was Tehran's deputy prosecutor Morteza Eshraghi, and acting on the orders of the then spiritual leader Khomeini, the death committee, of which Raisi was the youngest member, agreed to liquidate the imprisoned members of the MEK movement (Shah's opposition to the mullahs -

Yu.Yu.

). The extent of the massacre is outlined in a 13-page report written by London-based human rights lawyer Geoffrey Robertson, QC. "They were hung from cranes by four people or six at a time from a rope hanging from the front of the assembly hall."

At the same time, the Foreign Office in London swiftly changes its ambassador after your victory in the presidential elections and sends to Tehran Simon Sherkliffe, who previously worked in Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Pakistan and Yemen. That is, a specialist in Iranian proxies and the very Africa where Iran is being reoriented under your rule.

You and I perfectly understand everything about Western hypocrisy and pragmatism, when at the very time when the British and American media are savoring the details of these terrible executions, Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin calls you to congratulate you on your election, and says the following: “Today, to create peace and stability in the world, we have an important challenge: to work together to witness a peaceful atmosphere in the world. According to the teachings of the Abrahamic religions, Iran and the Vatican must support the oppressed peoples of the world and resist tyrannical forces. "

It is possible that you wanted to answer it this way: "Was it then, in 1988, and further, in 2009, in 2019, we did not create that very" peaceful atmosphere "together with you?"

But you, knowing the West perfectly well, with which you will have to work in the closest way for these four years, answer, as the president is supposed to answer: "The protection of human rights is the basis of the policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran."

Mr. Raisi!

Your official biography says that you come from a poor family, were born in Mashhad, like Ayatollah Khamenei, into the family of a Shiite cleric, and when you were five years old, your father died.

  • Ibrahim Raisi's childhood photo

  • © Wikimedia commons

One can only imagine how much you loved him and how much you missed him if, in honor of your father, Seyed Haji Rais al Sadati, you made your father's name your last name.

During your election campaign, you often repeated the phrase: "I learned from childhood what poverty is."

Due to the personal circumstances of my life, I know how important the figure of a father is for a boy.

And how the emptiness of his absence hurts the soul.

Unlike the Western press, I am not inclined to consider you personally guilty of the tragedy of 1988 or other errors of the system, to which I include my arrest and the false accusation against me, which could have cost me the life and orphanhood of my children.

Rather, I tend to agree with the famous German-American philosopher of Jewish origin (I hope you have nothing against this?) Hannah Arendt, who came in one of her most famous works, The Banality of Evil.

Eichmann in Jerusalem "to the conclusion:" The problem with Eichmann was precisely that there were many like him and many were neither perverts nor sadists - they were and are terribly normal. "

Your youth fell on a difficult historical period of the breaking of eras and revolution.

I, too, was born in a country where the revolutionaries were not distinguished by a good disposition and adherence to humane values: in 1918, they executed the entire royal family, along with small children.

I was born in a country where another seminary student ruled for almost 30 years and built one of the most powerful concentration camp systems in the world.

Yes, we cannot change the past - but we can change the future.

I want to wish you not only a solution to the socio-economic problems with which you are accepting Iran today, but also that the people of Iran not only fear you, but also love you.

I wish you to carry out not only many deep economic reforms, but also many pardons and revisions of sentences on political articles.

I ask you - as a person who faced the injustice of the Iranian justice and almost became one of its victims - to release as many innocent as possible and those who have already served part of their punishment and need mercy, a gesture of broad will, the mercy of a loving father. ...

* "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.