The spread of the Delta variant raises fears of a new epidemic outbreak, as the incidence rate of Covid-19 cases is on the rise in France.

But at this stage, the impact of this new contamination on the hospital system still remains zero. 

The progression of the Delta variant in France could be accompanied by new health limitation measures. On Friday, the Elysee Palace announced that Emmanuel Macron would speak on television Monday evening, from 8 p.m. But already, the executive advises against French travelers to travel to Spain and Portugal where the epidemic rebound has pushed local authorities to take certain restrictive measures. But what about French indicators for monitoring the epidemic? Are we already witnessing a new outbreak?

At the start of the week the incidence across France was 29.5 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, a figure which has risen by more than 50% in the previous seven days.

The incidence is increasing more particularly in the West, that is to say in New Aquitaine, in the Pays de la Loire and in Brittany, but also in Occitanie, Corsica, Île-de-France and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur.

It is especially the 15-44 year olds who are affected by this increase in contamination. 

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Contamination in festive contexts

These new contaminations are occurring more and more in people who have frequented restaurants, bars, private parties, in short, so many places where we tend to drop the mask.

And yet, vaccination remains insufficient to stop the spread of the virus without barrier gestures.

"If this trend continues, the impact on the hospital system seems inevitable. The burden of serious cases would be borne disproportionately by unvaccinated risk subjects", alert to Europe 1 Daniel Lévy-Bruhl, epidemiologist at Public Health France.

But for now, hospitalizations still continue to decline, the number of patients in intensive care fell below 1,000 on Wednesday, a figure that had not been reached since September 23.

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A fourth wave potentially as strong as the previous ones

According to projections by the Institut Pasteur, a peak in hospitalizations equivalent to that of last fall is quite possible at the start of the school year if vaccination coverage does not increase rapidly. For the scientific council, it would now be necessary to reach 90 to 95% of people immunized or vaccinated to keep the control of the epidemic.