Since the last NATO summit, the Afghan file has become the most prominent topic of Turkish-US relations after the Turkish President announced his country's readiness to keep its forces in the capital, Kabul, to secure and manage its international airport.

NATO and Afghanistan

After 20 years of war against it after the attacks of September 11, 2001, the United States of America agreed to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan following an agreement it concluded with the Taliban movement last year.

After a long period of stalled negotiations, Washington concluded an agreement with the Taliban on February 29, 2020, described as historic, providing for the withdrawal of US forces from the country within a period of 14 months, the exchange of prisoners and confidence-building measures between the two sides, as well as the launch of dialogue and negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government.

After Trump lost and Biden won the presidency, the new US president did not repudiate the agreement, but he saw that the timetable for withdrawal is not practical, promising to complete it on the anniversary of the attacks, that is, on the 11th of next September.

Washington wants to get out of Afghanistan for many reasons, including the results of its intervention, the priorities of its foreign policy and some internal dynamics, but it certainly does not want to lose it completely or lose the role and influence completely, which requires a party to perform this task, and it seems that Turkey was the most appropriate option.

This is because the Afghans - including the Taliban themselves - do not look at Turkey as they look at the United States, as it is neither an enemy nor an adversary for them, on the one hand, because it is a Muslim country, and on the other hand, because the roles it played in Afghanistan over the past years were far from combat missions.

In this regard, Istanbul was chosen to complete the path of "peace negotiations" between the Taliban and the Afghan government, and to host a conference in this regard sponsored by Turkey in partnership with Qatar and the United Nations, last April. However, the Turkish Foreign Ministry announced the postponement of the conference to complete the arrangements for the participating delegations in light of talk about The Taliban refused to participate.

In this context, the United States and NATO attach special importance to Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, considering it the gateway to Afghanistan from abroad, and making it a safety valve for diplomatic missions and international bodies residing on and frequenting Afghan soil, especially in light of the recent worsening field developments that prompted a number of of countries to close their representations there.

Turkish vision

In October 2001, the Turkish parliament approved the government's sending of troops to Afghanistan, and with the Security Council's decision to establish the International Security Assistance Force "ISAF" in Afghanistan in December, Turkey participated in the mission with 260 soldiers within NATO forces.

For many years, especially after the transition to the "Resolute Support" mission in 2005, the Turkish forces carried out non-combat missions focusing on training and managing some projects, ensuring security in the vicinity of Kabul, as well as their presence at Hamid Karzai Airport and managing the military part of it in the years The last six, and still maintains there about 500 soldiers.

After his meeting with Biden in the middle of last month, Erdogan expressed his country's initial approval to keep its forces in Kabul to manage and secure the airport, stressing that it needs support from Washington in this regard.

This was later detailed by Defense Minister Hulusi Akar as "political, logistical and financial" support, including covering the expenses of managing the airport and leaving some of the American forces' equipment after the withdrawal.

Ankara has a primary desire to remain in Afghanistan to manage and protect Kabul Airport, but the final decision will depend on 3 main factors, namely Washington's response to Turkish requests/conditions, the situation on the ground and the Taliban's position, as well as the internal Turkish opposition.

The American desire apparently met with a similar Turkish desire, but with different bases and motives, as the presence of its forces there represents a continuous role for it in a region of exceptional importance beyond the borders of Afghanistan, and what has to do with East Asia and Central Asia on the one hand, and competition with global and regional powers such as China and Russia and Iran, as well as at the level of relations with the United States.

Washington's rhetoric toward Ankara changed markedly after the last NATO summit, which focused on the Afghanistan file, among the many contentious files between the two sides. A newspaper like the Wall Street Journal suggested that Ankara would use this file as a negotiating paper with Washington. To obtain concessions or flexibility from them in other files, foremost of which is the Russian S-400 deal.

The Turkish vision of the idea of ​​keeping its forces in Afghanistan is summarized in 3 main pillars:

The first is that it should not be a Turkish presence, but rather an international presence on its behalf or managed by Turkey, which constitutes an international political cover, or at least an Atlantic one for it.

The second is that Ankara does not remain there alone, but with other partners, and it has determined its preferences in Pakistan and Hungary. The first is because of its neighborhood, influence and role in Afghanistan, and the second is symbolically as a European country and a member of NATO, and it does not necessarily have the same negative impression on the Afghans/Taliban as the United States and some countries In addition, it - like Pakistan - has good relations with Turkey recently.

Third, to ensure the safety of its forces in Kabul, which passes through two paths, NATO's commitment to provide the necessary support, especially in the event the situation on the ground deteriorates, and the Taliban accept this or turn a blind eye to it at least, and perhaps it is the heaviest factor in the balance of Turkish decision-making, which He explains Erdogan's saying that "the reality of the Taliban" in Afghanistan "cannot be ignored".

Challenges and obstacles

In conclusion, Ankara has a primary desire to remain in Afghanistan to manage and protect Kabul Airport, but the final decision will depend on 3 main factors, namely Washington's response to Turkish requests/conditions, the situation on the ground and the Taliban's position, as well as the internal Turkish opposition.

With regard to the expected response of the United States, it is not expected that Washington will reject entirely what Ankara considers necessary conditions for the survival of its forces and ensuring its security. This alone will not lead to Turkey's rejection.

Despite the wide powers that the Turkish president has in his country in light of the presidential system and the weakness of the opposition in general, the refusal of the parties weighing the matter pushes the presidency to make all efforts to try to secure the soldiers and not leave them vulnerable to harm, to withdraw the pretext from the opposition.

Most of the opposition parties previously supported the government in sending troops to Syria, Iraq and Libya as a matter of national security, and supported Azerbaijan for national and geopolitical reasons, but they do not consider staying in Afghanistan a necessity for the country's national security.

The most important factor, in our view, is the final position of the Taliban regarding the survival of Turkish forces in Afghanistan, especially after their recent remarkable field progress, in addition to the fact that the state of instability is not encouraging for any party to stay on Afghan soil.

The Taliban issued positions rejecting this, but the statements of its spokesman, Muhammad Naim, positively referred to Turkey and expressed its desire to establish good relations with Turkey in the future.

Therefore, Ankara is expected to do its best to try to soften the position of the Taliban and convince them that its stay there is not to implement an American or NATO agenda, but rather to "support the stability of Afghanistan and help its people," as Turkish officials say.

The previously postponed conference is one of Ankara's tools in communicating with the Taliban and mediating between it and the Kabul government, as well as trying to convince it of Ankara's position, as well as supporting friendly third parties with ties to the movement such as Qatar and Pakistan.

Accordingly, it is likely that Turkey will be able to reach a formula in which it will keep its forces at Kabul Airport, because of its interests, especially if it is able to form a political and field protection network for it through its relations with the United States and NATO on the one hand and guaranteeing the tacit approval of the Taliban On the other hand, otherwise, the initial Turkish approval may not turn into a practical reality after the withdrawal of US forces.