At a monitoring conference in Tokyo, experts pointed out that the rate of increase in the number of new positives in Tokyo has risen significantly, "it is thought that the infection is spreading again."
If the current rate of increase continues, the number of people will exceed 1,000 a day in four weeks, showing a strong sense of crisis about the rapid spread of the infection.
During the meeting, experts maintained the infection status and medical care provision system in Tokyo at the highest alert level of the four levels.
The 7-day average of new positives was about 503 as of June 30, 1.2 times more than a week ago and June 23, which was about 418.
The rate of increase in the number of new positives has risen sharply for three consecutive weeks, experts pointed out that "the infection seems to be re-spreading."
If the current rate of increase continues, two weeks later, on July 14, there will be about 724 people a day, almost the same level as in late April when the third state of emergency was declared, and another four weeks. Later, on the 28th of this month, we analyzed that the number will exceed 1000 and will reach about 1043, which is almost the same level as the third wave of the new year.
Given the increase in the number of people and the effects of the highly infectious mutant virus, he expressed a strong sense of crisis when there was concern about the rapid spread of infection beyond the third wave.
On the other hand, as of June 30, the number of inpatients was 1553, an increase of 252 from the 23rd of last month, a week ago.
He also pointed out that the number of seriously ill patients increased by 3 to 47, which is a high value.
Experts say that if the number of new positives increases, a certain percentage of middle-aged and middle-aged patients will need to be hospitalized, and the number of patients who will become more severe will increase. He expressed a sense of crisis that there was a risk.
Expert "Very likely to be sick, quite vigilant"
After the monitoring meeting, Masataka Inoguchi, Vice Chairman of the Tokyo Metropolitan Medical Association, said that he could never be optimistic about the future outlook for the medical care provision system in Tokyo, "given the speed of Delta infection."
He added, "We are still not sure about the severity rate of Delta strains. If it is high, it is very likely that the bed will become tight at once with the speed of infection, so we are very cautious." He expressed strong concern.
In addition, "The hospital that examines patients infected with the new coronavirus is inoculating individual vaccines and mass inoculations, and is also inoculating occupational areas, so there is not enough capacity. Please take this into consideration and reduce the number of infected people." He called for thorough measures against infection.
"Controlling the number of people at night is an important aspect"
At the monitoring meeting, Atsushi Nishida, director of the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Medical Research, Social Health Medicine Research Center, said that the number of people in the downtown area of Tokyo at night had reached the level around the end of March when the fourth wave was entered. The re-spread of the infection may soon exceed the fourth wave. It will be a very important phase to control the number of people at night. "
According to Director Nishida, the number of people in seven downtown areas in Tokyo during the 10 days from the cancellation of the state of emergency to June 30 increased by 21.5% at night, around the end of March when the fourth wave entered. It means that it has reached the standard.
In addition, in Tokyo, we have shifted from a state of emergency to priority measures such as prevention of spread, and it has become possible to provide alcoholic beverages.
Under these circumstances, according to Director Nishida, the number of people increased significantly from the evening to 8:00 pm, and although restaurants were requested to shorten the business hours until 8:00 pm, from 8:00 pm It is said that the increase will be noticeable in the time zone until midnight.
In addition, the number of people in the daytime has increased by 5.1% since the state of emergency was lifted.
Director Nishida said, "The infection situation may worsen at a faster pace than the 4th wave. If the increase continues this week, there is a possibility that the infection will spread again over the 4th wave, and the increase in the number of people will be accelerated. We need to stop it. "
"It will be a very important phase to reduce the number of people at night," he said.
This is the analysis result of the infection situation and medical care provision system in Tokyo shown at the monitoring meeting on July 1.
Infection status
Confirmation of new infections averaged 502.7 for 7 days as of June 30, an increase of approximately 84 from 418.0 a week ago and as of June 23.
The rate of increase was about 120% of the previous week, a significant increase for the third straight week.
The percentage of people in their 20s who were confirmed to be infected in the week leading up to the 28th of last month was 29.0%.
Following the previous week, the number of people in their twenties was the highest.
This was followed by
▽ 30s 19.3%,
▽ 40s 15.9%,
▽ 50s 12.5%,
▽ teens 10.7%,
▽ 60s 4.5%,
▽ under 10s 4.1%,
▽ 70s 2.3% ,
▽ 80s was 1.4%,
▽ 90s and over was 0.3%.
Those in their 50s or younger account for about 92% of the total.
In addition, the proportion of teenagers and younger increased by 4 points from the previous week to about 15%, and experts pointed out that "it is urgent to thoroughly implement infection control measures in nursery schools and schools." did.
On the other hand, the number of elderly people aged 65 and over was 184 this week, an increase of 14 from the previous week, but the percentage decreased by 0.9 points to 5.4%.
Among those who know the infection route, infection from people living together was the most common at 50.9%, followed by workplaces at 14.7% and infections at facilities such as elderly facilities, hospitals, nurseries and schools at 14.3%.
Infections at institutions are increasing this week, with multiple reports of infections, especially in elementary and junior high schools and high schools.
Infection in the facility
▽ For teens, it increased by 12.7 points from the previous week to 42.2%, and for
teens, it increased by 15.7 points from the previous week to 45.4%.
On the other hand, among those infected at the facility, those in their 80s and above decreased by about 35 points to 25.7%.
In addition, although the dinner rate was almost flat at 7.3%, experts said, "There were cases where all the participants were infected by participating in the dinner without masks and cases where multiple people were infected by participating in the barbecue. He called on him to be wary of infections at dinner, where he often takes off his mask.
The 7-day average of people who do not know the route of infection, which is regarded as an "indicator that reflects the spread of infection," was 300.9 as of June 30, an increase of about 40 from the previous week.
The rate of increase was 115.4% as of June 30, an increase of 6.2 points from the previous time.
Experts said, "The number of people who do not know the infection route has been increasing for three consecutive weeks. There is concern about the potential spread of infection that the infection route cannot be followed. The infection has spread again and it is necessary to be vigilant about future trends. "
On top of that, "In order to avoid re-spreading, it is necessary to further reduce the rate of increase in people who do not know the infection route. It is necessary to suppress the increase in the flow of people more than ever and to thoroughly implement infection control measures. I called for caution.
The percentage of people who did not know the infection route was about 59%, which was flat compared to the previous week.
By age group, it exceeds 50% in the 20s to 50s and 70s.
Experts said, "It remains difficult to keep track of contact history through active epidemiological surveys at health centers. As a result, the proportion of people who do not know the infection route may remain high." I'm pointing out.
Medical care provision system
The 7-day average test positive rate was 5.1% as of June 30, up 0.5 points from the previous week's June 23.
The number of hospitalized patients was 1553 as of June 30, an increase of 252 from June 23, and experts said that the L452R, which is said to be even more infectious than N501Y, was screened for mutant viruses. The positive rate is also rising, "he said." In the future, "the rapid increase in the number of new positives may put a strain on the medical care provision system."
Looking at inpatients by age group, those in their 60s or younger account for about 80% of the total, and experts analyze that "it is on an upward trend from about 65% about a month ago."
By age group, about 20% are in their 50s, followed by about 19% in their 40s.
In addition, those in their 30s or younger account for about 30% of the total, and experts said, "Since June, the proportion of young and middle-aged people has increased. If this trend continues, middle-aged and young people will have moderate disease. The number of patients may increase, and the number of seriously ill patients may increase later. There is a strong awareness that all generations are at risk of infection, the chances of contact between people are reduced, and basic infection prevention measures are taken. We need to educate them to be thorough. "
As of June 30, the number of seriously ill patients, which was calculated based on the Tokyo standard, was 47, an increase of 3 from June 23.
By gender, there are 34 males and 13 females.
By age group,
▽ 50s and 70s were the most common, 15 respectively,
▽ then 60s 8 people,
▽ 80s 4 people,
▽ 40s 3 people,
▽ 20s 2 people. ..
Experts point out that "every generation needs to be aware of the risk of infection."
In addition, the number of people who are likely to need mechanical ventilation or ECMO treatment soon was 178 as of June 30, a decrease of 27 from June 23.
However, experts point out that "a rapid increase in the number of critically ill patients will put a strain on the medical care provision system, including ordinary medical care, so it is necessary to be very cautious."
In addition, comparing the medical treatment status of those who became positive as of June 30 with the medical treatment status as of June 23,
▽ the number of people who are receiving medical treatment at home increased by 242 to 954,
▽ hotels secured by the capital, etc. The number of people who are receiving medical treatment in Japan has increased by 253 to 1134,
and the number of people who are adjusting whether to be hospitalized at a medical institution or
to receive
medical treatment at a hotel or home has increased by 97 to 793, which
is an increase in all cases.
The total number of "people in need of medical treatment" increased by 844 to 4434 as of June 30, experts point out that "it is still at a high level."
In the week leading up to June 28, 29 people infected with the new coronavirus died.
Of the 29 people who died, 25 are in their 70s or older.
Governor Koike Calls for thorough countermeasures remotely
Governor Koike of Tokyo, who was discharged on June 30, attended the monitoring meeting on July 1 remotely and called for thorough infection control measures with a faint voice.
Governor Koike, who had been hospitalized since June 22 due to excessive fatigue, was discharged on June 30 and has been conducting public affairs by telework since July 1 without going to the office.
I attended the meeting of the day remotely from home.
Governor Koike said in a faint voice, "While in the midst of measures against corona, I had to leave public affairs, causing concern and inconvenience to many people."
On the other hand, based on the expert's point that "the infection is considered to be re-spreading", the residents and businesses were told "to prevent further re-spreading, especially at night. , Thorough implementation of basic infection control measures, and cooperation with telework again. Let's fight in a total war. "