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The massive outbreak originating in Mallorca, which already has more than 1,100 associated cases, is perhaps the largest that has been identified in the world in a year and a half of pandemic, but it is also unusual for other reasons. Its origin is distributed in various parties and places, and has caused infections with at least two different variants: Alpha and Delta. It has been so inopportune, to mark the beginning of a summer in which we play a lot, as, deep down, expected: what were all those people doing there together?

The macro outbreak has been a compendium, and also a warning, of the risks we face in the second Covid summer. The young population has not yet been vaccinated, on holidays there is more mobility and the variants, which did not exist a year ago, could complicate the situation. During April and May, the incidence in the United Kingdom ranged from around 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days. But, in recent weeks,

the Delta variant has become dominant in this country

and transmission has skyrocketed to 250 cases.

The evolution of Spain had been the opposite: the incidence had been falling since April 26, until, last Wednesday, it rose again, driven in part by the macro-outbreak: its more than 1,100 associated cases increased the rate by more than two points per 100,000 inhabitants. "

We are facing an outbreak of outbreaks,

" says Joan Caylà, spokesperson for the Spanish Epidemiology Society and president of the Barcelona Tuberculosis Research Unit Foundation, referring to the multiple origin of infections, spread over different places, times and celebrations .

“We have to remember that it is a very contagious infection. If there is no physical distance and there are no masks, there are infections, ”says Caylà. Some communities (Basque Country, Galicia)

have found the Delta

, or Indian,

variant

in some of the people affected by the macro-outbreak, although the version of the virus that has been identified for the most part has been Alpha, or British. Both currently coexist in Spain, but it is foreseeable that Delta, more contagious, will continue to gain ground.

An example: if 10% of the 1,100 cases of the macro outbreak were due to Delta, and if the uncontrolled scenes that we have seen had been prolonged for three more weeks,

the infections with this variant could have approached 40,000

, assuming that the reproductive number R for Delta can reach seven, as estimated by the Public Health of England (PHE). That is, each positive would infect, without measures or vaccines, another seven: in a week, 770 young people could have been infected; in two, 5,390; and in three weeks, 37,730.

Apart from the outbreak in Mallorca, the incidence in Spain could experience a new increase in the coming days linked to this variant, Caylà warns: "In tourist places, especially, they should be very strict. If the incidence increases a lot in one place, tourists will go to another ", he warns, and clarifies:" Not only have there been end-of-year parties in Mallorca. "It is possible, therefore, that similar super contagion events appear."

It is to be expected, I do not know if it will happen or not, that there are more outbreaks of this type,

"he advances.

"We started badly, we are repeating last year's mistake," Caylà laments about the start of summer: "At the end of June last year, the incidence was less than 10," he recalls.

"About 10 times less than now."

It also warns against what it considers an "

unjustified euphoria

", linked not only "to the success of the vaccination", but also "to the idea that it is no longer necessary to wear a mask" outdoors.

"Without vaccines, the mortality would be impressive"

The macro outbreak in Mallorca, therefore, could be the symptom of a general problem: «Last year, the euphoria led us to forget the recommendations, we increased the incidence and tourism was affected, no one came. If now, at the beginning of July, the cases begin to increase, we will lose a lot of tourism », reasons Caylà. “The luck is that the older population is vaccinated, and

vaccines limit the severity of these outbreaks

. If not, what would be happening is that young people would infect their parents, grandparents ... The mortality would be impressive.

The upward trend in incidence, which is mild in the country as a whole, is

much more pronounced among the young population

, less vaccinated and more given to moving. Hospitals are emptied, thanks to good weather and, above all, vaccines. But transmission is still high, and it is tempting to forget - as early last summer, fall, winter or spring - that virus circulation is a problem in itself.

Among other reasons, due to the variants, a threat that had not yet emerged in the summer of 2020 and that began to manifest itself in October, when more contagious and problematic versions of SARS-CoV-2 emerged at the same time and in different parts of the globe. .

"

It is best to eliminate the virus as soon as possible

", concludes Caylà.

"Because, if not, we give it probabilities."

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