The new Iranian president, Ebrahim Raïssi, is due to take office in early August after being elected on Friday, June 18, with nearly 62% of the vote after a ballot marked by record abstention in Iran.
In less than six weeks, the ultra-conservative and close to the Supreme Leader will become the new face of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the international stage.
Under the leadership of this traditionalist cleric with austere reputation, Tehran's tone towards the West could harden, even if it will continue to negotiate to relaunch the historic 2015 nuclear deal, as it happens. is very clearly engaged during his campaign. Thus, from his first press conference on Monday, June 12, Ebrahim Raïssi called for fruitful negotiations on the nuclear issue, while warning that he would not allow "negotiations for the sake of negotiating". "Any meeting must produce results (...) for the Iranian nation," said the president-elect.
While his predecessor, the moderate Hassan Rohani had opted for an openness towards the West by favoring among other things the 2015 agreement, Ebrahim Raïssi replied with a firm "no" to the question of an American media asking him s 'he intended to meet with United States President Joe Biden in case the talks in Vienna lead to sanctions easing and in order to "settle" the problems between the two countries, enemies for more than 40 years. years.
According to Iranian and Western officials, however, it is unlikely that the arrival of this new president will change Iran's position in these negotiations aimed at relaunching the 2015 nuclear deal, initiated with the agreement of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on the most important issues. In addition, a Supreme National Security Council is also responsible for determining Iranian foreign policy. And although this body is headed by the Iranian president, it is the Supreme Guide who must validate his positions. But the Iranian president still has a certain leeway, which can influence the course of negotiations with the West.
A conclusion of the nuclear negotiations before the inauguration of Raïssi
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However, the change of Iranian president comes at a key moment in the nuclear negotiations.
These talks enter a decisive phase this summer.
A sixth round of indirect talks just ended Sunday between Tehran and Washington and delegates gathered in Vienna returned to their respective capitals for consultations, negotiators having failed to resolve their differences, according to Iranian and European officials.
According to diplomats, the break in discussions should last about ten days.
For David Rigoulet-Roze, editor-in-chief of the journal Strategic Orientations and researcher specializing in the Middle East, the situation is very delicate. "We are getting to the point of these negotiations. So far the Americans, with the Europeans serving as intermediaries, have been negotiating with an Iranian team that they have known well and for a long time. Either they will seek to accelerate the movement for fear of 'obstruction by a new team of even less conciliatory negotiators, or the process could seize up because of the last stumbling blocks - the Iranian ballistic program and Iran's regional influence. 'red lines' for the Iranian power, even if the latter shows the wish to continue the current negotiations. "
Vincent Eiffling, Iran specialist at the Center for the Study of Crises and International Conflicts, agrees: "There was hope on the part of the West to be able to reach broad discussions with Iran on other subjects like the question of ballistic missiles, Iran's support for its militias across the Middle East. But these will not be possible discussions with a president like Ebrahim Raïssi ".
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On the Iranian side, some officials do not exclude that Tehran might have an interest in pushing for the conclusion of an agreement before the departure of Hassan Rouhani. This would allow Ebrahim Raïssi to shift responsibility for any concessions to the West to his predecessor, a senior Iranian official close to the talks told Reuters on the sidelines of Sunday's talks. With two birds with one stone, once the agreement is signed by the Rouhani administration, it is the new executive who would gain the fruits: the lifting of sanctions and the revival of the Iranian economy.
The United States is fully aware of this.
According to the New York Times, for US negotiators, the next six weeks before the inauguration of the new Iranian president offer a "unique window of opportunity" for a deal to be struck.
Economy, diplomacy
: towards standardization with the Guardians of the Revolution line
Partisan of a "statist" vision, Ebrahim Raïssi should not however plead for the massive opening of the Iranian economy to foreign investors in the event of the lifting of American sanctions, but rather favor "the religious foundations that he knows well and the Revolutionary Guards [who also own many companies] ", analyzes economist and Iranian specialist Thierry Coville. Several researchers estimate that these parastatal actors currently represent more than 50% of the Iranian economy, but that the phenomenon remains difficult to quantify because these companies do not present "clear traceability" and operate in a "clientelist system".
Close to the line of the Supreme Guide, Ebrahim Raïssi is also "closer to the Revolutionary Guards [the ideological army of the Islamic Republic] than Hassan Rohani, whose Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was the 'bête noire'" , believes David Rigoulet-Roze, which could lead to more intransigent positions on the part of the new president on the Iranian ballistic program or the Iranian military engagement in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. During his campaign, he made no secret that the interaction of the Islamic Republic with neighboring countries would be his priority.
Moreover his victory was immediately greeted by the regional allies of Iran, the Lebanese secretary general of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah who called on him to continue supporting the "resistance" carried out since the Islamic revolution against the " aggressors "Israeli and Western, to the Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, who congratulated him, while calling on him to ensure the governance of Iran in the spirit of" the Islamic revolution (...) in the face of the plans and external pressures.
In Iraq, pro-Iranian Shiite militias have also "applauded" this victory on social networks, "saying that there would finally be revenge after the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani," said Lucile Wassermann, correspondent for France 24 in Baghdad, for whom the victory of an ultraconservative at the head of Iran will influence the situation in Iraq. "There will be a certain standardization between the Iranian government policy and that encouraged by the Revolutionary Guards, which is intended to be much more aggressive. This standardization will have an influence on the behavior of the militias in Iraq," she explains. .
But Raïssi is careful not to close the doors of Iranian diplomacy with a double turn, affirming during the press conference on Monday that there was "no obstacle" to the resumption of diplomatic relations - broken since 2016 - between the Sunni kingdom of Saudi Arabia, regional rival of the Islamic Republic, Shiite.
A heavy past in terms of human rights
Finally Ebrahim Raïssi will have to lead the country while assuming an unflattering pedigree. The president of the Islamic Republic is usually the one who travels abroad, where he represents the country. However, a major problem arises for the elected president, given that he appears on the blacklist of Iranian officials sanctioned by Washington for "complicity in serious human rights violations", accusations deemed null and void by Tehran.
His name is associated with the mass executions of hundreds of left-wing detainees in 1988, when he was deputy prosecutor at the Revolutionary Court in Tehran. Amnesty International has denounced his election as president, saying he should be investigated for "crimes against humanity" and "brutal repression" of human rights. "In terms of image, it will not be easy to manage and it is not impossible that this will hamper his international travel, insofar as Washington would have to agree to lift the sanctions that target him personally for example. "he is able to go to the UN General Assembly as part of his new functions. This is far from certain," said David Rigoulet-Roze.
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