Chinese Communist Party celebrates 100 years of ideological disunity

Audio 03:31

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) celebrates 100 years.

© AP / Andy Wong

By: Sylvie Noël Follow

16 mins

" 

Follow the Party, Forever

 " is the official slogan of the festivities that will be held in July to celebrate the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

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This anniversary is accompanied by a return to Maoist roots with an emphasis on the cultural revolution, even if it means turning his back on the vision of Deng Xiaoping who had known how to combine economic openness and maintenance of the Communist Party's monopoly.

A rewriting of history at the initiative of Xi Jinping which provokes tensions and hushed criticism.  

Interview with Alex Payette, Chinese party-state specialist, co-founder and CEO of the Cercius group, a strategic and geopolitical intelligence consulting firm

RFI: In what arrangements is the CCP celebrating its 100th anniversary?  

Alex Payette 

: If we look at what has happened since 2013, we can say that the party has had a little sunnier days, shall we say.

Currently, with the revival of the anti-corruption campaign and its share of purges, the struggle of factions around the person of Xi Jinping, the conditions are not met for a celebration.

The party will seek to hide this during the festivities during the month of July.  

What does the Chinese Communist Party want to hide?  

These are family problems that we always try to put under the rug.

The concern is that we are facing a situation that has not arisen for a long time: absence of succession, return of a more ideological discourse that we were nevertheless trying to avoid since the period of Deng Xiaoping. and even Jiang Zemin which runs until 2015.

More frequent references to the Cultural Revolution and the Maoist years that some did not want to see resurface and which create unease within the State Party.

Unfortunately, this further isolates a Xi Jinping already very lonely at the top of the party-state and questions the reaction that could be his.

This ideological reorientation in favor of the cultural revolution (1966-1968) is done at the initiative of Xi Jinping?

Yes, largely on the initiative of Xi Jinping, but it was not necessarily him who led the reflection, even if he wanted a turn to the left, towards Maoist ideals.

Rather, you have to look among the people who have written Xi Jinping's speeches since the 1980s and 1990s, such as Wang Huning and Li Shulei.

Wang Huning is the current ideologue of the Communist Party and architect of the ideas that are deployed within the party.

He is one of those who structured the turn to the left, brought up to date speeches reminiscent of those of the 1960s and 1970s, a romantic period in the minds of some.

The CCP has experienced periods of rupture throughout its long history, for example with the Cultural Revolution, the combination of economic openness and the maintenance of the party's monopoly by Deng Xiaoping.

It is the cultural revolution that is being put forward today.

Is the objective to give a coherent and unified vision of the history of the party? 

It is certain that at the dawn of the centenary, it is absolutely necessary to re-centralize the history of the party, to reunite around a single narrative.

Controlling its history is extremely important, because it allows to exclude those who do not agree, to identify possible pockets of resistance inside the party.

But the problem is that this return to Maoist ideas is more present in speeches than in reality.

Today we will no longer see someone with the presence of a Mao.

Xi Jinping does not have the panache for this.

So the cultural revolution is highlighted, idealized in the speeches, but without real concretization, because the social situation has completely changed.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has led the country since 2013 © AP / Sam McNeil

Is it because of this tension that the publication by former Premier Wen Jiabao of an article titled " 

My Mother

 " received so much attention?

Wen Jiabao is, however, a political retiree who has lost his influence, but the article published in Macau was censored in Beijing. 

In short, the tensions between Xi and Wen Jiabao date from Xi's entry into the Politburo in 2007. The two men were already clashing over the interpretation of the Cultural Revolution.

In his article published on March 25, Wen Jiabao recounts what his mother and father had to endure during the Cultural Revolution.

Admittedly, the criticism is indirect, but when he writes that he does not agree with the style of leadership, with the ideas conveyed, between the lines, it is a criticism of the Cultural Revolution and he directly targets Xi Jinping.

Xi Jinping cannot admit that former Politburo members suddenly start criticizing the party leadership and even the party itself.

It is unacceptable to him.  

In this letter, Wen Jiabao writes "

 China should be a country filled with equity and justice, where the will of the people is respected 

. 

"

It's not the first time he's said it, he already did, I think, in 2010 and even in 2012, before leaving politics.

These are the ideals of former reformers, who knew people like Zhao Ziyang, former prime ministers such as Hu Yaobang, 1980s officials who were in Tiananmen, who were part of the reform fringe.

For Wen Jiabao, it is natural to claim more universal values, but the simple fact of writing it means, if we take it at face value, that the concerns of the fight against poverty, the fight for social equity claimed by Xi Jinping since 2013 are only for display.

Former Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in 2017 at the opening of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) Congress.

© AP / Mark Schiefelbein

China has been presented as a threat, on several occasions in recent days, following the NATO summit, the G7 meeting, in particular. Beijing retaliated by saying China was not the threat described. What is at stake is the image of China on the outside. We noted the remarks made on June 1 by Xi Jinping. He called for " 

a reliable, kind and respectful image of China

 ." We wondered about the meaning of this statement. Should this be seen as a questioning of the diplomacy of "wolf fighters", the aggressive foreign policy in force for about 4 years? 

Not necessarily. When you face a structure as imposing as the Leninist state, or what you might call the Chinese party-state, you have to understand that when you launch a program, you cannot go back. Because of this heaviness, no speech from Xi can be followed by a drastic change. On the other hand, you have to be interested in the words spoken.

In a way, he says " 

we did a good job defending China, but we went too far

 ".

He explains that we could do better by helping people understand the party, the Chinese model.

But from there to saying that it was too much, that we must apologize, that is not possible.

So there might be adjustments to bring a different kind of narrative to the international stage, but no sudden change of course… that would be amazing.  

But the diplomacy of the "wolf fighters" is not unanimous among Chinese diplomats.  

Indeed, but once again the diplomats are third-class party cadres, if I can put it that way, who relay the elements of language provided to them.

Whether they agree or not, the structure and mechanisms of promotion make loyalty prevail otherwise the chances of advancement diminish.

Within the Politburo, it is certain that there are members who do not agree and who point the finger at Wang Huning.

For example, during the trade war with the United States, he was criticized for his lack of practical experience in management, administration of politics.

Its legitimacy has been questioned.

This kind of talk is still floating around today.

Within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a number of diplomats are approaching retirement age.

Should we expect changes in the near future? 

The trade war with the United States has muddied the waters of the transition within the Department of Foreign Affairs.

The decision was taken at a time of tension to keep in place the people with the institutional memory, considered to be more adept at dealing with cases.

The concern is that things did not go as planned.

With war diplomacy, the turn to the left, the Trump-Biden transition, it is certain that the party was taken aback, did not have time to make the envisaged changes.

These promotions which did not take place cause a traffic jam.

We expect a transition either a little before the fall 2022 congress, because it could facilitate promotions to the Politburo, or in March 2023, date of the big cabinet reshuffle.

But there are traffic jams, people who needed to be promoted, who were not, and that is causing tension.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visiting Washington in 2018 © AP / Andrew Harnik

You were referring to it, the CCP congress is scheduled for fall 2022 and is already causing tension.

For Xi Jinping, the choice open to him is threefold: to retire, give up one of his seats or accept a third term, which would be unprecedented. A dilemma, because each choice presents its corollary of difficulties.   

Absolutely, if he stays, he blocks the system, derails the whole promotion mechanism, and annoys those awaiting advancement, even within his close entourage. If he were to separate from just one seat, which is possible, or even two, he could either keep the Central Military Commission, like Jiang Zemin or even Deng Xiaoping, which might be ideal for him, or keep the party headquarters and give the other posts to Li Qiang or Chen Min'er (Communist Party leader in Chongqing city-province) considered as potential successors.

But at the same time, can he leave everything at once? The answer is no, because the anti-corruption campaign has aroused discontent. However, to leave with peace of mind, you have to make sure that people are not too angry with you. In this case, it is understandable that Xi Jinping finds himself in a delicate situation. If he leaves, the dissatisfied people could cause a swing back, if he partially leaves his posts, those who will ensure the transition could be victims of internal tensions within the party or not strong enough to hold the line.

If he decides to stay, he will cause tensions within the party which will put his relations with those around him to the test.

We are already seeing test balloons with information appearing out of nowhere concerning Xi's entourage, but also Liu He and his son.

But his choices are limited by those made in 2013, so he finds himself a prisoner of the structure.  

Is Joe Biden's willingness to convince US allies to take a hard line on China another source of tension?  

It is certain that if the Europeans were to form a united front with Joe Biden it would become even more complicated for Xi, especially since there is no consensus on the line to be taken.

So some punish others and vice versa, we call that

the tango of the offended

, which has the effect of isolating China more and more.  

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