At a monitoring conference in Tokyo, experts evaluated that the number of new positives in Tokyo had stopped declining, and pointed out that there is a possibility of a rapid spread of infection beyond the third wave.
On top of that, he urged us to control the flow of people more than ever and take thorough infection control measures.
During the meeting, experts maintained the infection status and medical care provision system in Tokyo at the highest alert level of the four levels.
The 7-day average of new positives was about 376 as of 16th, 97% of the 9th of this month, a week ago, which was about 389, experts rated as "stopping down."
And in the future, we analyze that there is a strong concern that the rate of increase will exceed 100%, that is, it will start to increase.
Furthermore, in the "third wave" from the end of the year to the beginning of the year, the number of new positives was about 400, which is almost the same as this time, and after about 3 weeks, the infection re-expanded, considering the influence of the mutant virus. , Expressed a sense of crisis that there is a possibility of rapid spread of infection beyond the third wave.
On top of that, he urged us to control the flow of people more than ever, take thorough infection control measures, and prevent re-expansion.
On the other hand, as of the 16th, the number of inpatients decreased to 1346 and the number of severely ill patients decreased to 45, but the values are still high, which increases the burden on medical institutions that devote a large number of human resources to vaccination. I explained that.
He pointed out that there is concern about the spread of infection by a virus with a mutation of "L452R" found in India, and that the rapid increase in new positives may put a strain on the medical care provision system.
Expert "Beware of rebounds, numbers that never go unnoticed"
The seven-day average number of new positives in Tokyo was about 300 in March when the second state of emergency was lifted, but as of the 16th, it was more than 380.
Under these circumstances, regarding the cancellation of this state of emergency, Mitsuo Kaku, a specially appointed professor at Tohoku Medical and Pharmaceutical University, who is the chairman of the "Expert Board" in Tokyo, said, "The effect of the declaration can be maintained for a long time. I think that the government decided, including people's consciousness. In terms of numbers alone, we must consider that it is still in a very difficult situation. I think that it is a number that should never be taken care of. Therefore, even if the state of emergency is lifted and priority measures such as prevention of spread are taken, rebound must be really vigilant. "
Monitoring meeting analysis results
This is the analysis result of the infection situation and medical care provision system in Tokyo shown at the monitoring meeting on the 17th.
Infection status
Confirmation of new infections averaged 376.3 for 7 days as of 16th, a decrease of approximately 13 from 389.4 as of June 9th, a week ago.
However, about 97% of the previous week, the rate of decline has shrunk by 17 points from the previous week.
Experts pointed out that "there is a strong concern that the rate of increase will exceed 100% in the future."
The percentage of people confirmed to be infected in the week leading up to June 14 by age group was
▽ 20s, which was the highest at 33.4%, an increase of 5.5 points from the previous week.
Next,
▽ 30s is 19.5%,
▽ 40s is 15.8%,
▽ 50s is 11.2%,
▽ teens is 6.8%,
▽ 60s is 5.1%,
▽ under 10s is 3.1%,
▽ 70s is 2.9 %,
▽ 80s was 1.7%,
▽ 90s and over was 0.5%.
The total of people in their 20s to 40s accounts for about 69% of the total.
On the other hand, the number of elderly people aged 65 and over was 181 this week, 70 less than the previous week, and the percentage decreased by 7.0%.
Among those who know the infection route,
▽ infection from people living together is the most common at 52.2%,
followed by
▽ workplaces at 19.1%,
▽ dinners at 8.3%,
▽ facilities for the elderly, hospitals, nurseries and schools. Infection was 5.6%.
While institutional infections have decreased this week, dinner-related infections have increased by 1.4 points from last week.
Experts said, "Even outdoors, there are many opportunities to remove masks at drinking parties in parks and on the streets, and at barbecues. In some cases, people get infected by having dinner at home or at a friend's house, and there is a risk of getting infected. It is necessary to repeatedly enlighten the high level. "
In addition, workplace infections have been flat at around 19% since last week.
Thirteen cases of confirmed infections from one to two or more have been reported in the week leading up to June 9.
Of the 2,595 new positives during the week leading up to June 14, 360, or 13.9%, were asymptomatic.
The 7-day average of people who did not know the route of infection, which is regarded as an "index reflecting the spread of infection," was 238.6 as of the 16th, an increase of 0.5 from the previous week and remained unchanged.
The rate of increase was 100.2% as of the 16th, up from the previous 83.1%.
Experts said, "Even in the 2nd and 3rd waves, the rate of increase started to rise from around 80%, and in the 3rd wave, the infection re-expanded rapidly after a gradual upward trend of over 100%." He pointed out that caution is needed.
He added, "In order to avoid re-expansion, it is necessary to further reduce the rate of increase. It is necessary to curb the increase in the flow of people more than ever and take thorough infection control measures." ..
The percentage of people who do not know the route of infection was about 64%, an increase of 4 points from the previous week, and experts point out that it is "slightly on the rise."
By age group, more than 50% of people in all age groups, except those in their teens or younger, do not know the infection route, and in particular, those in their 20s to 40s account for nearly 70%.
Experts said, "It continues to be difficult to grasp the contact history through active epidemiological surveys at health centers. As a result, the proportion of people who do not know the infection route may remain high. If a new positive person occurs in a facility for the elderly or in a facility for the elderly, infected people may accumulate in the same area and spread to the surrounding area. "
Medical care provision system, etc.
The 7-day average test positive rate was 4.1% at 16 days, down 0.2 points from June 9 of the previous week.
The number of inpatients was 1346 as of 16th, a decrease of 280 from June 9th, but experts point out that "it is still high."
Looking at inpatients by age group, those in their 60s or younger account for about 69% of the total.
The most common were in their 50s and 40s, about 17%.
Experts said, "The proportion of inpatients in their 60s and younger is on a gradual uptrend. They are strongly aware that all generations are at risk of infection, reduce opportunities for person-to-person contact, and are basic. It is necessary to educate people to take thorough infection control measures. "
The number of seriously ill patients as of June 16th, which was calculated based on the Tokyo standard, was 45, a decrease of 12 from June 9th.
By gender, there are
36 males and
9 females.
By age
group, 22 people were in their 70s,
followed
by 14 people in their 60s
, 3 people in their 50s, 3 people in their
40s
, 2 people in their 80s
, and
1
person in their
90s. It was a person.
Approximately 44% are in their 60s or younger, and experts point out that they are "still high."
In addition, the number of people who are likely to need mechanical ventilation or ECMO treatment soon was 215 as of 16th, a decrease of 44 from June 9th.
"Although the number of critically ill patients is declining, new outbreaks are still on the alert level. We need to be very vigilant not to overlook the signs of an increase," said an expert. I am.
In addition, comparing the medical treatment status of those who became positive as of June 16 with that of June 9,
▽ the number of people receiving medical treatment at home decreased by 154 to 681,
▽ medical treatment at hotels secured by the capital. The number of people who are
in the hospital
increased by 11 to 778,
and the number of people who were adjusting whether to be hospitalized at a medical institution or to receive medical treatment at a hotel or home increased by 86 to 597.
The total number of "people in need of medical treatment" decreased by 337 to 3402 as of the 16th, but experts point out that "it is still at a high level."
In addition, "it is necessary to maintain, enhance and strengthen the system of inpatient medical care, accommodation medical treatment and home medical treatment in preparation for the significant spread of infection in the future."
In the week leading up to June 14, 48 people infected with the new coronavirus died.
Eight more people than last week.
Of those who died, 34 were in their 70s or older.