If the number of people increases after the declaration is lifted, there is a possibility that the number of infected people will increase during the Olympics.

Groups such as Kyoto University will simulate the infection situation in Tokyo when the state of emergency is lifted on the 20th of this month, and if the number of people increases after the declaration is lifted, the effects of the mutant virus confirmed in India will be affected. Even if it is small, we have announced the results that the number of infected people may increase to the level of the state of emergency again during the Olympic period.

This simulation was shown at an expert meeting of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare held on the 16th by Associate Professor Yuki Furuse of Kyoto University, Tohoku University, and a group of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases.

In the simulation, if the declaration is lifted on the 20th of this month, the number of infected people per day in Tokyo will change due to the influence of the Delta strain of the mutant virus confirmed in India, assuming that the number of people will increase. I calculated whether to do it.

As a result, even assuming that the impact of Delta shares confirmed in India is relatively small, a 10% increase in headcount after declaring the declaration would result in a 10% increase in headcount in August, even without an increase in headcount during the Olympics. In the first half, the number of people exceeded 1,000 per day, which is the level of the state of emergency again.

Also, if the number of people increased by 5% during the Olympic Games, it would have exceeded 1000 people at the beginning of August during the Olympic Games.

If the number of people increased more than this, the pace of increase in the number of infected people would be even faster.

On the other hand, if there is no effect of Delta shares confirmed in India, if the increase in the number of people after the declaration is lifted can be suppressed to about 15% or less including during the Olympics, it will be possible to avoid exceeding 1000 people. There is a possibility.

At a press conference after the expert meeting of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Chairman Takaji Wakita said, "For the future outlook, two points are important: how much the flow of people will increase and the effect of the mutant virus. If vaccination progresses, it can be expected to reduce the number of severely ill people, but it cannot be expected to immediately suppress the spread of infection. It is necessary to take measures to control the flow of people and prevent the spread of the mutant virus. "