Every morning, Nicolas Beytout analyzes political news and gives us his opinion.
This Thursday, he is interested in the decision of the Republicans who will order a large poll of the right-wing electorate, with the aim of finding the candidate who will manage to get everyone to agree.
The Republicans met this Wednesday their Strategic Council to discuss a subject that divides the party: the method of appointing a presidential candidate.
The good news is that there is a Republicans Strategic Council, which suggests that there is therefore a strategy.
The bad news is that in reality there are several competing strategies, just as there are several divergent ideological lines.
The party has been divided for months on how to nominate its candidate for the next presidential election.
However, in the life of a political movement of this importance, this race for the supreme office must be an outcome.
The question is therefore: primary or not primary?
And if there is primary, then when and with which voters?
All of these questions are legitimate, and depending on the answer given to them, it is one candidate who is advantaged over another.
Between Bruno Retailleau, Valérie Pécresse, Xavier Bertrand and now Laurent Wauquiez who is reaching the end of his ambition, the struggle for influence is in full swing, under the sidelong glance of François Baroin, who is no longer a candidate but could perhaps become it again.
A real puzzle.
And how do we get out of it?
Within the Republicans, we make a finding: the two parties which have, to date, the best chances of winning, have already nominated their candidate. They are Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. And these two are already in the countryside. There is therefore a risk that the Republican right will be quickly left behind in the race for the Elysee. The logic would have been to accelerate. Well no, at the instigation of Christian Jacob, the Strategic Council decided to postpone everything until the fall. And to rely on a survey of activists who will be asked if a candidate naturally stands out from the crowd. If so, bingo, he will be the one who will wear the colors of the Republicans in the race for the Élysée. The democracy poll had already invaded our daily life, it weighed permanently on the decision-making of the governors;this time it is the choice of a candidate that could be made by survey. It is a small victory of the politics of appearances against that of ideas, a victory of the image over the debate. So, of course, it's a clever way to get around the divergences of political lines that cross the Republicans, to hide them under the carpet: we care less about finding a line than an image.
What if no one comes off?
If no candidate comes out clearly at the top of the poll?
So the Republicans will launch in October-November a primary among their militants.
It will be late, very late, it will relaunch an internal competition and a battle of ideas just a few months before the election.
A clear risk of internal discord.
Basically, maybe instead of a Strategic Council, the Republicans would need a Tactical Council more.