At a monitoring conference in Tokyo, experts said that the number of new positives in Tokyo has not fallen sufficiently, and that the number of people has increased significantly after the re-extension of the state of emergency, and the infection has re-expanded. He pointed out that the risk seems to be high and called for the need to curb the flow of people and implement basic infection control measures.
During the meeting, experts maintained the infection status and medical care provision system in Tokyo at the highest alert level of the four levels.
The 7-day average of new positives was about 389 at 9 days, down from about 485 to 80% of the 2 days a week ago, but not enough to fall to the third. We analyze that it has remained at about the same high level as before the explosive spread of the wave.
Furthermore, after re-extending the state of emergency from the 1st of this month, he pointed out that the number of people in the downtown area has increased remarkably and the risk of re-expansion seems to be high, showing a sense of crisis.
He also called for the need to curb the flow of people and implement basic infection control measures to prevent re-expansion.
On the other hand, as of the 9th, the number of inpatients was 1626 and the number of severely ill patients was 57, which are decreasing, but still high, and the burden on medical institutions is prolonged. did.
He pointed out that there is concern about the spread of infection by a virus with a mutation of "L452R" found in India, and that the rapid increase in new positives may put a strain on the medical care provision system.
Atsushi Nishida, director of the Center for Social Health Medicine, Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Medical Research, said, "If the flow of people continues to increase, the number of effective reproductions will increase about two weeks in advance, and the number of infected people will remain flat. There is a possibility that it will bottom out. "
On top of that, "If the population staying at night continues to increase, the risk of re-spreading infection will increase significantly. At this very important stage, it is necessary to curb the population staying at night and the flow of people for leisure purposes on Saturdays and Sundays. There is. "
Masataka Inoguchi, Vice Chairman of the Tokyo Metropolitan Medical Association, said, "When the infection of" Delta strain "spreads, the medical care provision system will be tightened at once. Now, medical workers are being driven out by vaccination, and there is really no spare capacity. I would like to ask for your cooperation so as not to spread the infection. "
Governor Koike "Continues to be aware that strict caution is required"
After the monitoring meeting, Governor Koike of Tokyo said, "We need to be aware that the number of new positives in Tokyo is still at a high level and has not fallen sufficiently. With the addition of the factor of increase, I would like to continue to be aware that strict vigilance is needed, pointing out that the re-emergence of the infection can occur at any time. "
After asking for teleworking, staggered work, and three-cs avoidance at work, he said, "Since the way you spend the night and weekends will have a big impact on the infection situation in the future, please refrain from going out unnecessarily and urgently." I did.
In addition, Governor Koike said on the 9th that Prime Minister Suga expressed his intention to work to ensure that all those who wish to complete the vaccination from October to November. I want to give a sense of speed. I want to work with the wards, cities, towns and villages so that the citizens of Tokyo can receive the vaccine as soon as possible. "
Monitoring meeting Expert analysis results
This is the analysis result of the infection situation and medical care provision system in Tokyo shown at the monitoring meeting on the 10th.
Infection status
Confirmation of new infections averaged 389.4 for 7 days on the 9th, about 95 less than 485.1 on the 2nd a week ago.
The rate of increase was approximately 80%.
Experts analyze that "it has been around 80% since the end of last month and has been high without falling sufficiently."
He also pointed out that the level was the same as before the explosive spread of infection in the third wave. It has expanded. Given the effects of highly infectious mutant viruses, it is necessary to drastically reduce the number of new positives and prevent re-explosion. "
The percentage of people who were confirmed to be infected in the week leading up to the 7th of this month was
27.9% for those in their
20s
,
followed
by 20.9% for those in their
30s, 17.0% for those in their 40s, and
▽ 50s. 11.9%,
▽ teens 6.2%,
▽ 60s 5.0%,
▽ under 10s 4.5%,
▽ 70s 4.0%,
▽ 80s 2.2%,
▽ 90s and over 0.4%.
The total of people in their 20s to 40s accounts for about 65% of the total.
The number of elderly people aged 65 and over was 251 this week, a decrease of 154 from the previous week, and the percentage decreased by 8.8%.
Among those who know the infection route,
▼ infection from people living together is the most common at 53.8%,
followed by
▼ workplace at 19.5%.
▼ Infections in facilities such as facilities for the elderly, hospitals, nurseries and schools accounted for 9.4%, and ▼ dinners accounted for 6.9%.
This week, institutional infections were 6.9 points lower than the previous week, and the rate of institutional infections among people in their 70s and above was also significantly reduced.
Experts warned that "this week there are some cases of infection in school-related facilities such as elementary and junior high schools and universities. In addition, there have been reports of more than a dozen people infected at the same workplace at once." It was.
Of the 2867 new positives in the week leading up to the 7th of this month, 16.5%, or 474, were asymptomatic.
The 7-day average of people who do not know the route of infection, which is considered to be an "indicator of the spread of infection," was 238.1 as of 9th, a decrease of about 48 from the previous week.
The rate of increase was 83.1% as of the 9th, and experts said, "This month it has been around 80%. After the 2nd and 3rd waves, the rate of increase has stopped declining at around 80%, and the 3rd The waves have been on a gradual uptrend and then rapidly re-expanded, so great care must be taken. "
He added, "In order to avoid re-expansion, it is necessary to further reduce the rate of increase. It is necessary to reduce the flow of people and the chances of contact between people, and to take thorough infection control measures."
The percentage of people who did not know the infection route was about 60%, which was almost the same as the previous week.
Experts said, "It continues to be difficult to grasp the contact history through active epidemiological surveys at health centers. As a result, the proportion of people who do not know the infection route may remain high. Elementary and junior high schools If a new positive person occurs in a facility for the elderly or in a facility for the elderly, infected people may accumulate in the same area and the infection may spread to the surrounding area. "
Medical care provision system, etc.
The 7-day average test positive rate was 4.3% at 9 days, down 1 point from the 2 days of the previous week.
The number of inpatients was 1626 on the 9th, a decrease of 306 from the 2nd, but experts point out that "it is still high."
"Medical institutions have been busy treating patients with the new coronavirus for about a year and a half. Now that they are also vaccinated, the burden is increasing," he said.
Looking at inpatients by age group, those in their 60s or younger account for about 67% of the total. The most common was around 17% in their 50s, followed by around 16% in their 70s.
The number of seriously ill patients as of the 9th, which was calculated based on the Tokyo standard, was 57, a decrease of 16 from the 2nd of this month. By gender, there are 44 males and 13 females.
By age group,
▼ 70s had the most 21 people,
followed by
▼ 60s 16 people,
▼ 50s 10 people,
▼ 40s 5 people,
▼ 80s 4 people,
▼ 90s 1
person.
It was a person.
Approximately 54% are in their 60s or younger, experts point out that they are "still high."
In addition, 259 people were likely to need mechanical ventilation or ECMO treatment soon, down 28 from last week.
Experts said, "The number of critically ill patients is about the same as at the end of last year before the peak of the third wave. While the number of newly infected patients is declining, the number of critically ill patients and the number of patients equivalent to severely ill patients remain high. And we need to be very vigilant. "
In addition, comparing the medical treatment status of those who became positive as of the 9th,
▼ the number of people who are receiving medical treatment at home decreased by 341 to 835,
▼ they are receiving medical treatment at hotels secured by the capital. The number of people decreased by 221 to 767,
and the number of people adjusting whether to be hospitalized at a medical institution or to receive medical treatment at a hotel or home decreased by 79 to 511.
The total number of "people in need of medical treatment" decreased by 947 to 3739 as of the 9th, but experts point out that "it is still at a high level."
In addition to inpatient medical care, it is necessary to enhance and strengthen the accommodation and home medical care systems in preparation for the significant spread of infection in the future.
In addition, 56 people infected with the new coronavirus died in the week leading up to the 7th of this month. There are 18 more people than last week. Of those who died, 50 were in their 70s or older.