Who will win next May 27, 11:07
It took less than a month to announce the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election.
The "summer capital decisive battle" has had a great influence on the subsequent national affairs many times.
For this reason, the efforts of each party are not limited to the election of one prefectural assembly.
Of course, this time too.
The next House of Representatives election, which will expire in October, is just around the corner.
Each party plans to face the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in the same manner as the national election.
So what really influences the whereabouts of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election?
The keywords are "Governor Koike" and "Olympic Games / Para".
(Ryo Narizawa, Masaru Nishiura)
"How does the governor work?"
The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election will be held on June 25th (Friday) and July 4th (Sunday).
In our interview, there are questions asked by political party officials and city executives in the same voice.
"How does the governor move?"
Yuriko Koike, who was re-elected in the Tokyo Governor's election last July and entered the second term, is currently in the position of "special adviser" to the local political party "Tomin First no Kai". ..
In the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election four years ago, Koike was the governor and at the same time was the "representative" of the local political parties, leading the breakthrough of the Tomin First no Kai.
However, immediately after the election, he retired as a representative, saying, "I want to concentrate on the duties of the governor of Tokyo."
However, to be honest, it should be natural to support Tomin First no Kai.
At the regular press conference on May 21, I asked him straight whether he would support the Tomin First no Kai again.
Then, after emphasizing that "I am now focusing on measures against corona," the following answer was returned.
"Tomin First no Kai members have a lot of experts in second-hand smoke prevention measures, IT, 5G, etc., and the fact that they are members of the Diet also means that they will brush up Tokyo and the metropolitan government, and they will receive various suggestions. However, it has played a very important role.
First of all, I would like to send a yell to the reformers who act with the citizens of Tokyo first
.
"
I felt a certain amount of appreciation and expectations for the Tomin First no Kai, but there was no clear statement of support, and I was impressed by the cautious wording.
"Swing width" is large
4 years ago, 2017 Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election.
Koike, who became the representative of the local political party, caused a whirlwind as the voting date was approaching one month.
Of the 50 people supported by Tomin First no Kai, 49 were elected.
Including the additional official approval, he won 55 seats and rushed to the first party of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly.
On the other hand, the Liberal Democratic Party, which was positioned as an "old parliament" by Koike, reduced the number of seats from 57 before the election to 23, which is less than half, and was a historic defeat that greatly fell below the record low.
It was exactly the shape that was blown away by the whirlwind.
The recent Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election has a wide range of fluctuations.
Twelve years ago, in 2009, the Democratic Party (at that time) won 54 seats and became the first party, and with that momentum, it won the House of Representatives election in August.
The peaceful transition of power was achieved.
Eight years ago, in 2013, with the momentum of regaining power at the end of the previous year, the Liberal Democratic Party won an overwhelming victory in which all 59 people who supported it were elected and became the first party.
Created the flow of the Abe long-term administration.
In the last three Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections, the phenomenon that the party with the most momentum at that time is expanding its seats at a stretch continues.
"The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election is a barometer for the subsequent national affairs."
That is the reason why each party puts as much effort as the national election.
Of course, it will be directly linked to the subsequent administration of the city.
Tokyo executives explained why Koike has not yet clarified his attitude toward the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election.
"The governor is good at assessing public opinion trends. The composition of election cooperation between political parties is also different from the previous one. Looking at the power map of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly after the election, analyze the situation to the last minute and decide the response. Isn't it? "
The speculation of each party
How do the major political parties with seats in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly see Koike's movements?
As a matter of course, the Tomin First no Kai of the 1st Party expects Koike's full support this time as well.
In the Mayor of Chiyoda election in January, the candidate who quit the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly of the Tomin First no Kai and challenged, defeated the candidate recommended by both the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party and was elected.
Koike seemed to put effort into riding an election car around the ward and giving a speech on the street on the final day.
A member of the Diet said, "" Koike's popularity "is alive and well."
On the other hand, Tomin First no Kai has been suffering from turmoil.
After the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election four years ago, the number of members of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly decreased from 55 to 46 due to a series of withdrawals and expulsions. There are also incumbent Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly members who do not run for this time.
Tomin First no Kai wants to push Koike to the front as the "face" of the party. For the past four years, he has taken pride in promoting reforms as "two wheels of a car" in collaboration with Koike.
By appealing as "the power that supports the governor," he wants to capture the Koike supporters.
On the other hand, the Liberal Democratic Party, the second party, hopes that Koike will not join the Tomin First no Kai as much as possible.
In fact, the Liberal Democratic Party has shown a confrontational stance since taking office as governor of Koike, but since last year, it has been slowly approaching.
In March of last year, the city's initial budget, which had been opposed for the second consecutive year, turned in favor for the first time in three years. Even in the Tokyo Governor's election last year, Koike has begun to show unprecedented movements, such as making a direct request to the Liberal Democratic Party Toren in formulating the national budget.
Liberal Democratic Party officials explain the intention of approaching, saying, "Continuing to be seen as'the enemy of Koike'may work against the election."
On the other hand, there is also an analysis that "Koike also thinks that it is necessary to maintain a good relationship with the ruling party in order to carry out stable metropolitan administration, and it is not a good idea to continue the confrontational relationship."
Will a “win-win” relationship be built for both parties?
In this Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, the Komeito chose the most different response from the previous one.
The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election is one of the most important elections for the Komeito, and all the candidates who have supported it seven times in a row have been elected.
Last time, the Komeito signed an election cooperation with the Tomin First no Kai from the standpoint of supporting Koike, but this time the election cooperation partner is the Liberal Democratic Party.
Behind this change in response is the next House of Representatives election.
In the single-seat constituencies in Tokyo where the Komeito has candidates, veteran lawmakers will change generations to younger ones.
In addition, it has been pointed out that the number of votes obtained by proportional representation has decreased in recent years, making it difficult to maintain the current two seats in the Tokyo block.
The people concerned said that the Liberal Democratic Party's strategy of "selling favors" in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election was to protect the seats in the House of Representatives election, as the Komeito's strong local community did not proceed as expected. I will explain.
Many people think that this self-public cooperation is one of the major factors that Koike does not reveal his attitude.
This is because if Koike fully supports the Tomin First no Kai and the two parties become the majority of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, it will be difficult to manage the city administration thereafter.
A Liberal Democratic Party official said, "I'm getting the environment for Koike to'sleep'(= don't move), but I don't know what to do. I still don't hide the color of caution.
Among these three parties, the Communist Party, the fourth party of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, and the Constitutional Democratic Party, the fifth party, want to break in.
Both parties are proceeding with the unification of candidates, mainly in the one-person and two-person districts. The emphasis is on the axis of opposition to Koike.
The Communist Party, which has decided to support 31 people so far, criticizes the Tomin First no Kai, the Liberal Democratic Party, and the Komeito Party as "following the governor," and argues that there is no difference in the positions of the three parties.
I would like to bring the composition of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election into the form of 3 parties vs. the Communist Party.
Meanwhile, the Constitutional Democratic Party has officially recognized 27 people so far, aiming for the second party of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly.
He wants to play that role, saying that the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly needs to perform a check function in order to achieve sound metropolitan administration.
He wants to build a foothold in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly and gain momentum for the upcoming House of Representatives election.
In addition, the Nippon Ishin no Kai will have nine members.
Shun Otokita, who ran for the last Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election from the Tomin First no Kai and then left the party after criticizing the party's management, now belongs to the House of Councilors.
In addition, the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly insists that "the current Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly has no political party to criticize and to support," and to approach Koike Tosei with a "relentless" attitude.
Three people are scheduled to run for the Tokyo Seikatsusha Network.
Last time, we cooperated with the Tomin First no Kai led by Koike, but this time we will cooperate with the Constitutional Democratic Party.
With the slogan of "Making Tokyo a Town of Life," we aim to increase the number of seats from the existing one, with the aim of enhancing housing and employment, medical care, long-term care, and education.
What each party is aware of in common is the sense of distance from Koike.
Each party is watching Koike's movement with a sigh.
Is the Olympics / Para held or canceled?
The stance on the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics has suddenly emerged as a major focus.
As the severe infection of the new coronavirus continues, the differences between the parties' claims regarding whether to "hold" or "cancel" are becoming clearer.
When asked what kind of form they think the event should be held in the NHK poll in May, 49% said it would be canceled.
2% said they would do the same as before, 19% said they would do it with a limited number of spectators, and 23% said they would do it without spectators.
About half of the respondents "stop".
The Tokyo Olympics will start on July 23rd.
The ballot counting date on July 4 is just before that.
The Communist Party said, "It is clear that holding the tournament and measures against corona are incompatible," and insists that the tournament should be canceled immediately and that all efforts should be focused on measures against corona.
(1) Vaccination is not in time, (2) In serious infection situations around the world, athletes from all over the world do not compete fairly under the same conditions, and (3) Doctors and nurses from the medical field for the competition The reason is that it is not realistic to tear it off.
"While facing the fourth wave of the spread of corona infection, saying'Don't come to Tokyo', the Olympics have a contradictory attitude of'Come to Tokyo'," he criticized Koike's response.
The Constitutional Democratic Party is also cautious about holding the tournament, as Edano has indicated that he will have to cancel or postpone it if he cannot secure a sufficient medical system as the corona infection spreads.
On the other hand, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party repeatedly insist on "holding a safety and security tournament."
The Liberal Democratic Party is steadily preparing for the event based on the current infection situation in Tokyo, such as thorough measures against corona based on scientific knowledge and establishment of a medical system that minimizes the impact on regional medical care. I want the city to go.
The Komeito will also take measures at the water's edge to prevent the spread of the infection, and will do its utmost to realize a safe and secure tournament.
The Tomin First no Kai has a similar attitude at this point.
At the moment, the people involved in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly who support the event also point out this.
"It is very difficult to explain the Olympics and Para to voters in a situation where it is not decided whether it will be held with no spectators or with spectators. In the end, no one knows how to fall. I can't see the infection situation, so I'm trying not to mention it in my speech now. "The
Japan Restoration Society is
still in
a position to promote the Olympics and Para, but its response to Corona is fluid. Yes, it is necessary to determine the status of infection.
On the other hand, the Tokyo Seikatsusha Network issued a statement, saying, "Vaccination has just begun when we are under threat from mutant strains," and urged us to decide to cancel the event as soon as possible. There is.
The key is the 1st and 2nd person ward
More than 11 million voters in Tokyo will determine the claims and policies of each party and choose the voting destination, but it is the victory or defeat of the one-person or two-person wards that greatly influences the outcome of the entire Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election. I can say.
In particular, in the last three elections, the results have been replaced like an Othello game.
Looking at the seven single-person constituencies, 2009 was "Democracy 5, Liberal Democratic Party 1, Independent 1", 2013 was "Liberal Democratic Party 7", and 2017 was "Tomin First 6 Liberal Democratic Party 1". , The party that became the first party has won the most.
Even in the two-person district, the party that became the first party has obtained more than half.
There is no doubt that the key to winning or losing the entire Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election will be how to secure seats in these one-person and two-person wards.
Which party is the momentum ...
Immediately after the Governor's regular press conference on May 21, which was about a month before the announcement of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election.
Koike appeared at the Prime Minister's Office and faced Prime Minister Suga.
A 30-minute meeting that even raised concerns from executives in the city of "relatives," saying that "visiting at this time is likely to cause various speculations."
After the talk that the main exchange of opinions was on corona measures and vaccination, Koike told reporters about the Olympics and Paralympics, "We are working together to make the Games safe and secure by taking measures against corona. It was a story like this, "he said, and revealed that he had agreed to cooperate with the government for the event.
Both the government and the capital are premised on holding the Olympics and Paras.
Which party's "momentum" will be linked to Koike's trends and the pros and cons of holding the tournament?
Some executives in the city say, "I want the city to become a stable city council with little fluctuation," but the future is difficult to predict.
What kind of colors and gradations will the 127 seats, which are responsible for rectifying the many issues such as measures against corona, responding to the super-aging society, and preparing for the earthquake directly under the capital, show?
The summer battle is just around the corner.
(Honorific title omitted in the text)
# "Yuriko Koike" is dug deep in the NHK political magazine article
Metropolitan area bureau reporter
Ryo Narizawa
Joined in 2004.
After working at the Kobe Bureau and the Political Department, he has been in charge of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government since 2018.
My hobbies are baseball, watching sports, and weight loss, which I used to play until college.
Metropolitan area bureau reporter
Masaru Nishiura
Joined in 2006.
After working at the Hiroshima Bureau, he has been in charge of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government since the summer of 2019.