There is no need for a revolution yet

By the way, what really impresses me personally in the work of our current government is its almost deliberate everyday life.

No, it’s not that its leaders can do without what is called “high style” - after all, a large state has corresponding tasks.

This means that the style is not going anywhere.

But the fact that not every practical step, sometimes even successful, and large-scale, and quite significant, is perceived by these people as a kind of "historical event" (to be honest, there was such a thing behind the previous cabinet) - there is a certain style, and this, thank God, is already a fait accompli.

Judge for yourself: as recently as last Saturday, the government of the Russian Federation approved draft general schemes for the development of the oil and gas industries in Russia until 2035. In general, it is obvious that the work by the relevant departments is quite serious. And even a few years ago, this might have been the number one economic event in the country, if not a year, then this month, for sure: the oil and gas authorities would cheerfully report on their successes on TV and make no less vigorous plans for the near and distant future. And it would be more or less clear in terms of money (more precisely, the movement of funds) in both industries: most of the earned by the structure-forming “breadwinners” would safely replenish the national budget both in the form of taxes and in the form of dividends. Something like nowpartly went into additional exploration and updating of the production base.

And what was not found by the fiscal authorities, or recognized by them as relatively legal and available for distribution among beneficiaries, would be ground up with offshore millstones, in order to then emerge both in the global and domestic economies in the most unexpected and intricate combinations.

And it was neither good nor bad: with the given role of our God-saved Fatherland, carefully defined by our, Lord, forgive me, "civilized partners" as a "gas station country", even in their original habitat (in the same "civilized world") no one did not argue much.

Well, except for the "shale revolutionaries", but this is a rather specific topic, we will leave it for the next time.

On the whole, this role of Russia in the international division of labor more or less suited everyone - from “partners” to managerial and business elites within the country.

Well, except for the population of this very country, but for the time being no one particularly asked him questions on this topic.

According to the Constitution, no one asked him even about who the subsoil belonged to, what could be said about the “unshakable laws of the market”.

And somehow everything once again - very casually, but at the same time quite rapidly - changed.

Speaking at a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers even before the approval of the document, on Thursday, May 13, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin simply boringly informed interested parties that the presented general schemes provide possible scenarios for oil and gas production in the country until 2035.

It also shows the ways for the development of oil refining (which is especially important, but this is again a separate topic, to which we will definitely return in one of the following materials) and, accordingly, the transportation of energy raw materials.

In addition, in the documents adopted on Saturday, judging by the message on the official website of the government, the main directions of innovative development and import substitution are determined: in the light of the latest trends in the economy, as well as the requirements of the president, it is a quite reasonable approach.

As a matter of fact, it was Mishustin who formulated the basic tasks in his speech, of course, on the basis of the “general schemes”.

This must be quoted verbatim.

“We have to solve a serious task: to create products and services with fundamentally new characteristics, to maintain high competitiveness in traditional energy markets and a worthy place in our economy,” said the head of the Russian Cabinet of Ministers.

And here it is very important to pay attention to this combination at the level of, as they say, setting goals: competitiveness in traditional markets (and this is primarily the export of crude oil, what can we hide here).

Plus "products and services with fundamentally new characteristics", which speaks of plans for deep processing, and this is very important to keep in mind when analyzing the overall situation in the industry.

This is with regard to oil.

Gas is even easier.

It is enough to pay attention to the following figures: gas exports from Russia (including both pipeline and LNG supplies - all together) are planned by 2035 in the range of 330-472 billion cubic meters - the figures are very solid.

But at the same time, the consumption of natural gas in Russia itself by 2035 is also planned from 535.9 billion cubic meters under the low scenario to 603.5 billion - under the high scenario, that is, even for producing structures, domestic markets will be at least no less interesting than external ones. ...

And this is despite our rather aggressive strategy, at least in the LNG markets (the total volume of LNG supplies from Russia to foreign markets by 2035 is planned at 88.2-156.5 billion cubic meters, depending on the scenario).

And also for pipeline projects in different stages of implementation, both in the western and eastern directions.

As an example - quite strategic Nord Stream 2 and Power of Siberia 2, the implementation of which has not yet been cut out from the plans, everything is going as it is, in full accordance with the plans and despite some roughness in implementation.

With such a scale and with such a long-term project, there are quite acceptable errors and time delays.

Quite.

What conclusions can be drawn from what is happening?

First of all, the authorities are not planning any special “revolutions” with explosive growth in production and aggressive policies on foreign markets.

And (at least from the point of view of the Russian state), in general, even in hypothetical fantasies, this state itself is not required in principle for the chosen strategy of economic development.

But the intensification of work in the domestic markets, apparently, will now be more than a real priority. And the point here is by no means only, as it is fashionable to say now, in the "life-giving presidential kick." It is no coincidence that the same Mishustin in his recent speech spoke not only about refining, but also about the need to just at least (quote) "increase the production of high-quality gasoline, kerosene and diesel fuel at Russian refineries." And the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak, in turn, reported that the roadmap in the gas industry makes it possible to conduct an accelerated pre-gasification of Russian regions until 2023. This is not surprising: domestic markets are becoming very attractive economically, although in order for people to understand this, sometimes - yes, unfortunately, the president must directly put the brains on the performers.

It's just that in the new economic realities, the basic task of oil and gas production is not so much “the production of hard foreign currency for the state” (it’s not that hard, as it turns out, this very foreign currency), but the provision of an energy base for its own internal growth, for economic and, possibly, technological breakthrough within the domestic economy itself. And, of course, this “new understanding of the specifics” will be very difficult to implement, despite the quite intelligible strategy: there is a very specific identity of our business elites, and not always clear tax regulation in the same “oil industry”. Directly, for example, stimulating the export of crude oil and tying raw materials in the domestic market not to domestic, but to world prices - the nonsense is quite obvious here,one has only to remember the endless "gasoline crises" of the last few years.

But these are all problems, albeit complex, but quite local and, there is hope, can be solved. As they say, the eyes are afraid, but the hands are doing. And they do - we emphasize again - without any revolutions, especially in this rather conservative and traditional industry. By the way, there is nothing particularly revolutionary about the "general schemes" approved by the government. However, this is just in the style of Mishustin's office, there is nothing to be surprised at: a rather calm and everyday work both for the short and medium-term historical perspective. The work is very boring and, if so, from the outside, very painstaking, sometimes even more reminiscent of coordination than classical management. Well, it will be very interesting to watch its implementation, although on one thing we with the government, of course, agree right now, as they say, at the entrance:there is no need in our country for any revolution.

Even in the energy sector.

We have exhausted the limit of any "revolutionism".

Here, for sure - let everything go as it goes.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.