Tokyo Monitoring Conference Analysis “Infected people remain at a high level”

This is the analysis result of the infection situation and medical care provision system in Tokyo shown at the monitoring meeting on the 6th.

Infection status "Transition at a high level"

Confirmation of new infections averaged 768.1 for 7 days as of the 5th.

Compared to 727.0 people as of April 28, a week ago, the increase rate is about 106%, and experts point out that it has remained at a high level.

If the rate of increase continues at about 106%, the number of new positives per day

is estimated to be

1.12 times about 863 after 2 weeks

and 1.26 times about 970 after 4 weeks. It was.

He also pointed out that the number of new positives during the Golden Week holidays and after the holidays may be affected by the decrease in the number of tests and the delay in reporting due to the medical institution's leave, so care must be taken not to underestimate. did.

In addition, the percentage of viruses with the highly infectious "N501Y" mutation was 57.0% in the week leading up to April 25, an increase of nearly 12 points from the previous week.

On the other hand, the percentage of people who were confirmed to be infected with the new coronavirus in the week leading up to May 3

was 27.1% in their

20s

, followed

by 18.3% in their

30s and 16.7% in their 40s.

▽ 12.6% in their 50s

▽

7.8% in their

teens ▽ 5.7% in their 60s

▽

4.3% in their 70s

▽

3.7% in their under 10s

▽ 2.6% in their 80s

▽ 1.2% in their 90s and above.

Experts analyzed that the proportion of people in their teens to 40s is still high, accounting for about 70% of all new positives, and said, "The third wave begins with an increase in the number of young people infected. The infection has spread to the elderly, who are prone to become severe. Not only is there a risk of spreading from young people to other generations, but there is also a risk that the aftereffects will be prolonged even in young people and there is a concern that the infection will be aggravated by the mutant virus. " I am.

Of the new positives, the number of older people aged 65 and over was 614 this week, up 53 from the previous week, while the percentage was 10.4%, almost flat.

Among those who know the infection route,

▽ infection from people living together is the most common at 53.0%,

followed by

▽ infection at facilities such as facilities for the elderly, hospitals, nurseries and schools 16.2%

▽ workplace 15.1%

▽ The dinner was 5.8%.

This week, educational institutional infections accounted for approximately 20% of children under the age of 10 and teens.

In the 20s to 50s, the rate of infection in the workplace is about 20%.

For those in their 80s and above, the rate of infection at institutions rose to 63.6%.

Furthermore, it was reported that in nursery schools, elementary schools, university sports clubs and dormitories, multiple relatively large clusters of dozens to dozens of people have occurred in various parts of Tokyo.

Of the 5876 new positives in the week leading up to May 3, 1081 (18.4%) are asymptomatic, and experts should be aware that even if they are asymptomatic, they are at risk of becoming a source of infection. There is a need to continue to strengthen the system, such as intensive PCR testing, including asymptomatic individuals who had a chance of infection. "

The 7-day average for those who did not know the route of infection, which is considered to be an "indicator of the spread of infection," was 429.0 at the 5th day and 405.7 in the previous week, which was flat.

The rate of increase in the number of people who do not know the infection route has continued to exceed 100% since mid-March, and as of the 5th, it has remained at a high level of 103.7%.

Experts warn that "if the rate of increase rises further, the infection will spread rapidly, and it is feared that the course will exceed the third wave."

Looking at the percentage of people who do not know the infection route by

age group, it exceeds 60% in the 20s to 50s

, and 50% in the 60s.

Medical care provision system "Increasing trend under 60s"

The "positive rate" of the test was 9.1% on the 5th, up 3 points from 6.1% last week.

Experts point out that "while the number of tests decreased due to the influence of consecutive holidays, the number of new positives increased, so the positive rate increased significantly."

The number of inpatients was 2167 on the 5th, an increase of 244 from 1923 on April 27 of the previous week.

Experts pointed out that "the number of new positives due to the mutant virus is increasing, and if the chances of contact between people do not decrease, there is concern that the medical care provision system will be tight."

Among inpatients, the percentage of patients in their 70s and above is on the decline, while the percentage of patients in their 60s and under is on the rise at about 66%, and the percentage of patients in their 50s and under is on the rise after April. I will.

In addition, the number of seriously ill patients as of April 5, which was calculated based on the Tokyo standard, was 69, an increase of 14 from April 27.

Looking at the seriously ill patients by age group,

▽ 1 in their 20s ▽

3 in their

30s

▽

5 in their 40s

▽

17 in their 50s

▽

22 in their 60s

▽

13 in their 70s

▽ 8 in their 80s

So, the number

of people in their

60s was the highest.

This week, 6 patients newly introduced the artificial heart-lung machine = ECMO, all of whom were in their 60s or younger.

Experts said, "There is also a report that the severity rate of viruses with mutations in N501Y is higher than that of conventional viruses, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the trend, reduce the number of new positives, and prevent the outbreak of severely ill patients due to the mutant virus. ".

In addition, 220 people were likely to need mechanical ventilation or ECMO treatment soon, up 19 from 201 last week.

Experts said, "The number of critically ill patients will increase a little later than the increase in new positives. It will take a long time to remove the ventilator, so the period of occupying the bed in the ICU = intensive care unit will be prolonged. With that in mind, it is necessary to keep an eye on changes in the number of critically ill patients. "

On top of that, he expressed concern that "by diverting the hospital room to patients with the new coronavirus, the severe situation has continued for a long time including ordinary medical care, and the impact on ordinary medical care is becoming more serious." I am.

In addition, comparing as of April 27 and 5th,

▽ the number of people receiving medical treatment at home increased by 650 to 2110

▽ the

number of people receiving

medical treatment at hotels secured by the capital decreased by 2 to 1465. Persons

▽ The number of people who are adjusting whether to be hospitalized in a medical institution

or to

receive medical treatment at a hotel or home has increased by 73 to 1169

, and it is analyzed that the number of people receiving medical treatment at home is particularly increasing.

The total number of "people in need of medical treatment" was 6911 as of April 5, an increase of 965 from April 27, and experts say that "the momentum of increase is accelerating."

In the week leading up to May 3, 22 people infected with the new coronavirus died.

There are 7 fewer people than the previous week.

Of the 22 people who died, 16 were in their 70s or older.