China News Service, Hong Kong, May 5 (Reporter Zeng Ping) The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government recently announced the first quarter's GDP estimates that the Hong Kong economy rose by 7.8% in real terms over the same period last year, ending six consecutive quarters of contraction.

In an interview with a reporter from China News Agency on the 5th, an expert said that Hong Kong’s economic performance in the first quarter exceeded market expectations, mainly driven by the development of mainland trade; the economic trend for the year is still variable, and the key factor is whether the new crown pneumonia epidemic can continue to be controlled. .

　　"The market is generally expected to be between 3.5% and 4%, and an increase of 7.8% is better than market expectations." Wang Chunxin, head of economics and policy research at Bank of China Hong Kong, told reporters that Hong Kong's economic performance in the first quarter was mainly affected by three factors, including the base. Lower, benefited from the development of trade in the Mainland and the improvement in domestic demand.

　　Mai Cuicai, associate professor of the Department of Finance and Policy Studies at Hong Kong Baptist University, also holds the same view.

"A large number of Hong Kong manufacturers ship goods to Europe and the United States after production in the Mainland; there are also Mainland manufacturers that transfer goods to Europe and the United States via Hong Kong, so Hong Kong's foreign trade is relatively prosperous." Mai Cuicai said, and Hong Kong relaxed social distancing measures in mid-February , Food and beverages and retail sales have improved, and the public's consumption desire has strengthened, which has helped the economy rebound in the first quarter.

　　The latest unemployment rate in Hong Kong has fallen from the peak of 7.2% to 6.8%.

Wang Chunxin said that he believes that the unemployment rate in Hong Kong has reached an inflection point.

Usually as consumption and investment recover, the unemployment rate will decline slowly, 3 to 6 months slower than the economic recovery.

If the economy recovers all the way, the unemployment rate in Hong Kong is expected to drop to 5.5% by the end of the year.

　　Mai Cuicai said that after the SAR government allowed the restaurant's dine-in time to be extended from 18:00 to 22:00 in mid-February, many restaurants resumed two rounds of employees to work and hired new staff. At the same time, the recovery of foreign trade also led factories to hire new employees.

As a result, the unemployment rate in Hong Kong has fallen.

Based on usual experience, it takes a long time for citizens to change careers or find jobs again, so the unemployment rate will not drop to the pre-epidemic level of 2.8% in the short term.

　　Looking ahead to the economic trend of Hong Kong throughout the year, Wang Chunxin predicts that the annual economy will grow by 5% year-on-year, ending the two consecutive years of decline. Among them, the prevention and control of the epidemic will become a key variable factor.

The service trade still recorded a decline in the first quarter, mainly because the tourism industry was in an "ice-bound" state. The decisive factor for the improvement of the rest of this year is whether Hong Kong can resume normal personnel exchanges with the Mainland.

　　"Electronic consumer vouchers are a way to help the two most affected industries, catering and retail." Mai Cuicai said that the 5,000 Hong Kong dollar per person consumer vouchers may not have a great boost to GDP, but they can directly help the above two industries. , To keep employees' employment and reduce store closures.

For the whole year, he expects Hong Kong's economy to record an increase of 6% to 8%.

　　This year is the first year of the country’s 14th Five-Year Plan. In Wang Chunxin’s view, Hong Kong’s economic development will usher in many opportunities in the process of integrating into the overall development of the country.

He believes that Hong Kong can play four important roles, including becoming an innovation and technology center that supports high-quality development, promoting domestic demand, promoting high-level opening up, and becoming a benchmark for green development.

(Finish)