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The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) of the Faculty of the School of Medicine of the

University of Washington

, directed by Christopher Murray, today presented a global analysis in which the death toll doubled:

3,209,109 of deceased according to the World Health Organization would be approximately 6.9 million.

The data that the university examines, as many sources have recognized, to an underreporting of cases and deaths, more in some countries than in others.

The updated analysis shows that the United States would have had more deaths from COVID-19 to date than any other country: 905,000 compared to the 574,000 it acknowledges

. By region, Latin America and the Caribbean and Central Europe, Eastern Europe and Central Asia were the most affected in terms of total deaths.

The figures provided by the IHME only include deaths caused directly by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not deaths caused by the interruption of the pandemic in health systems.

To Spain they adjudge 123,786 deaths. India and Mexico would triple the death toll

, and in Japan the 10,000 'official' dead rise to 100,000, and Egypt's 13,000 would actually be 170,000.

Earlier this week, the

Reuters

news

agency

reported that

Russia had had an excess of 400,000 deaths from April last year to March this year.

The official statistics of that country registered 250,000 deaths

due to the pandemic

in that period

.

In parallel, in Spain the official data registered 3,551,262 confirmed cases of covid-19 and 78,566 deaths yesterday, although the cases may be two or three times more according to seroprevalence studies and the deaths more than 100,000 according to estimates of the system MOMO and the National Institute of Statistics.

Record weaknesses

"As dire as the pandemic may seem, this analysis shows that the actual death toll is significantly worse," said Murray, director of IHME.

"

Understanding the actual number of deaths from COVID-19 not only helps us appreciate the scale of this global crisis

, it also provides valuable information for policymakers developing response and recovery plans."

Many deaths from covid-19 are not recorded because countries only report deaths that occur in hospitals or in patients with a confirmed infection.

In many places,

weak health reporting systems and poor access to health care compound this challenge

.

The IHME analysis found that the highest number of unreported deaths occurred in countries that have had the largest epidemics to date

. However, some countries with relatively smaller epidemics experienced a large increase in the death rate when unreported deaths are taken into account. This analysis shows that they may be at greater risk of a broader epidemic than previously thought.

"Many countries have put in exceptional effort to measure the number of victims of the pandemic, but our analysis shows how difficult it is to accurately track a new and rapidly spreading infectious disease," added Murray.

"

We hope today's report will encourage governments to identify and address gaps in their covid-19 mortality reports

, so they can more precisely target pandemic resources."

Excess mortality

Going forward, the IHME's covid-19 model, which predicts the potential course of the pandemic over the next few months, will be based on these estimates of total deaths.

These estimates are based on the IHME

Big

Data methodology

to measure the burden of disease on a global scale.

Since 1990, his well-known

Global Burden of Disease study

has measured the total human cost of disease.

The IHME estimated total deaths from COVID-19 by comparing anticipated deaths from all causes

based on pre-pandemic trends with the actual number of deaths from all causes during the pandemic.

This 'excess mortality' figure was then adjusted to eliminate deaths indirectly attributable to the pandemic (for example, due to people with conditions other than COVID avoiding healthcare facilities), as well as deaths averted by the pandemic. (for example, the decrease in deaths from traffic accidents due to reduced mobility).

The resulting adjusted estimates include only deaths due directly to covid-19

.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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