Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, despite his impeccable upbringing, peacefulness and good nature (thanks to these qualities respected by the author of these lines), became the hero of a worldwide scandal.
In leaked audio fragments of a "not for publication" interview, Zarif walked through all the most painful and sensitive points of Iranian political cuisine, one of the most closed cuisines in the world.
The whole world heard that Zarif thinks about the "Iranian saint" General Qasem Suleimani, about Moscow, which, according to him, has always worked against the nuclear deal between Iran and the United States (that is, defended its interests), and about many other things that boldly claim to the status of a political sensation.
Through the mouth of the most honest speaker of the Iranian government, Ali Rabiya, Tehran announced on April 27, 2021 that the audio recording was stolen and was “part of a conspiracy against the Iranian establishment and the internal unity of national interests”, “was broadcast by a hostile TV channel controlled by petrodollars,” and “the president has already ordered the Ministry intelligence to identify the people behind the conspiracy. "
Without a conspiracy, the current Iranian establishment creaks like an old door — that's understandable.
And as you grease it with an enemy of the people, a spy and the Ministry of Intelligence, so it flutters.
Fragments of Zarif's audio interview in Farsi were exclusively published by the London satellite channel Iran International, which was previously co-owned by a Saudi Arabian citizen, and scattered into quotes throughout the world media - from the BBC, The New York Times to Fox News.
The seven-hour "internal" interview given by Javad Zarif to the reformer economist Saeed Laylaz was supposedly supposed to go to the Rouhani presidential historical archive and was not intended to be published before the end of his presidential term.
An interview given last month has surfaced now and looks like a "leak" allegedly directed against the figure of Zarif himself, because no one has ever heard such frank things from the "ideal foreign minister."
But the author of this column thinks exactly the opposite: the situation regarding the nuclear deal in Vienna and the internal situation in Tehran is so critical that the "leak" is a cry of despair, the latest increase in the rates of Iranian pragmatists who are tired of enduring humiliation from the Ksir hawks who, using the support of Khamenei, break the deal using any, even prohibited, methods.
So what did Zarif say in these published audio clips?
In recent years, Iran's foreign policy has been led not by the Foreign Ministry or even by the president, but by the head of the Quds forces Qasem Suleimani, who considered himself the main figure in the country.
In 2015, when the Obama deal was nearing completion, Soleimani flew to Moscow to persuade Russia to join the military campaign in Syria and possibly something else that should have sabotaged the Obama deal that the pragmatists were pursuing. And what ultimately sabotaged her.
In order to deliver sensitive cargo to Syria, Zarif argues, Soleimani used regular Iranian airlines' passenger flights, putting passengers and Iranian airlines themselves at risk, which predictably fell under severe sanctions. (Rouhani and his team wanted to modernize the country and would gladly minimize all imperial foreign policy projects: Iraq, the incredibly expensive Syrian project to preserve Bashar al-Assad. , and Iran's access to the Mediterranean Sea through Syria was a matter of primary importance, so "everything for the front - everything for victory", even Iranian airlines.)
John Kerry, as Secretary of State in the Obama administration, informed Zarif of more than 200 Israeli operations against Iran in Syria. This episode of the interview caused the effect of a bomb exploding in Washington, already among American hawks and opponents of reconciliation with Iran. “John Kerry conveyed information about Israel's covert operations in Syria directly to the Iranian Foreign Minister. This must be realized. Wow! " - posted by Noah Pollack of the Democratic Alliance Group, which is focused on US foreign policy. (Which once again confirms only that Zarif with his unique connections was the most valuable find for both Khamenei and the IRGC, but instead of wearing him for it on their hands, they constantly hit him in the back. Today we see this on those the nuclear talks in Vienna, in the impudent ultimatums broadcast from Tehran (to lift all sanctions at once,no "stage-by-stage and partial"), in increasing the enrichment of uranium to 60% of the level and closing the access of IAEA inspectors to nuclear facilities, where just after that the strange episode in Natanz happened, and much more.)
Zarif stressed the increased geopolitical role of Moscow, which together with Beijing orchestrated Iranian conservatives: “If Iran had not become a priority for Mr. Trump, Russia and China would have become priorities.
If, due to hostility with the West, we always need China and Russia, they do not need to compete with anyone and they can always get the maximum benefit through us. "
John Kerry and Mohammad Javad Zarif.
May 30, 2015, Geneva
© AFP PHOTO / POOL / SUSAN WALSH
Well, now about what this scandal means.
And why the publication of these audio files plays into the hands of Zarifa rather than against him, as many believe?
Firstly, for all eight years that Zarif was the head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, he played the role of an eternally smiling executive top official who so meekly carried out all the orders of the "party", driving to all corners of the world that in the last couple of years it began to be perceived that in foreign establishment, which the Iranians themselves have as a figure absolutely associated with the IRGC and Ayatollah Khamenei, devoid of their own will.
This is not the case, though.
What is a very indicative episode on February 26, 2019, when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad flew to Tehran to meet with Khamenei, and the Foreign Ministry and Zarif found out about this only when Assad was at a reception with Rahbar.
This offended Zarif so much that he immediately resigned, leaking to the press.
The IRGC also leaked to the press that, they say, those who were supposed to know it, and who were not supposed to know about this visit, did not know.
And only later, after Khamenei's intervention, they apologized to Zarif: 160 MPs of parliament signed a petition addressed to President Rouhani not to resign.
In a word, he humiliated the absolutely restrained, optimistic Zarif Suleimani in such a way that a real eastern drama ensued, which only a spiritual leader could stop.
Because the wise Khamenei appreciates Zarifa, his exceptional talent and unique connections built by him that open the doors of any governments and countries, while Suleimani had golden keys to the doors of Moscow, Damascus, Baghdad, Caracas, Kabul, Islamabad and some others.
But the paradox - for all the actions of the Guard Corps and of the same Suleimani outside Iran, he, Zarif, who suffered from them himself, was responsible.
They imprison foreigners, taking them hostage, and at press conferences abroad they ask Zarif for this.
As if he was planting them.
Or as if the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran could say in some Brussels: “Guys, we ourselves are shaking with horror that we ourselves can be imprisoned and accused of anything!
We make a deal, and they grab American and British journalists and put them in jail to thwart the deal.
We are organizing a historic visit by the Japanese prime minister - someone is blowing up a Japanese tanker at this time.
And we are powerless to do anything. "
Could he tell, for example, that the man who brought the deal and billions of dollars to his country, whom his happy compatriots were swinging in their arms when returning, was taken hostage at that very time, ordering the arrest of a person close to him on his favorite charge in Iran?
Of course not.
Even if it were true.
Therefore, Zarif was silent.
But after the publication of these audio fragments, it became clear: he was tired of being silent.
This "stolen audio file" allows him to distance himself from the IRGC and Soleimani on the eve of the presidential elections.
Secondly, it is not excluded that this beautiful drain, scattered instantly on the BBC and The New York Times, is Khamenei's message: “Look how much I have done for the country, I am building what they are systematically destroying.
I can bring a new deal and open the country access to money, technology, but I can leave, and let them try to do the same thing. "
The stakes are raised to the maximum, and it is done in a subtle and flowery way, like a sample of Persian poetry.
The Guardian Council, to which Khamenei has since this year transferred the authority to take part in the presidential elections, will of course not allow Zarifa to participate in the elections.
Only Khamenei himself can give him the green light for participation (and possible victory).
Thirdly, if Zarif is not allowed to participate in the elections, then after the published criticism of Suleimani, which no one in Iran has ever allowed himself publicly because of the deep fear of the head of Al-Quds (whose death only strengthened his holiness), even if they wanted to, they would not be able to attract "serve the interests of the Motherland" to the new government of the Conservatives.
Now Zarif finally looks like a brave man, not afraid to say what many think, but will never say out loud. This is a good start for his political future. He is no longer a decent democratic facade for the guys from the IRGC, he, Zarif, is now going his own way. (I recall that even the youngest and most promising minister of the Rouhani government, the hero of a large essay in Foreign Policy, represented by the future presidential hope of the liberals, posts on Instagram his cozy family photos in front of a portrait of Suleimani, which is hypocritical even by Iranian standards.)
If Zarif's Foreign Ministry pulls out of the deal with nothing before the end of Rouhani's term, the Biden administration could block the nuclear deal and cut off the financial oxygen to the subsequent Iranian ultra-conservative regime, whose available foreign exchange reserves fell from $ 123 billion in 2018 to $ 4 billion in 2020. ...
I read the election program of one promising young candidate - a technocrat from the IRGC: he absolutely seriously proves that even under sanctions Iran will sell oil to the Chinese at a discount and with this money will be able to live almost like the UAE.
When I read this, I seriously wanted this candidate to win and turn the country under the most severe sanctions into a Singaporean or Dubai miracle in four years.
I do not exclude that Mr. Zarif wants the same.
Then in four years, if Ayatollah Khamenei is alive (Allah may give him health, as they say in Iran), he himself will ask Zarif to return and save the country once again.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.