“Signs of spread of infection as an index to catch early” Proposal by the government subcommittee

Experts from a government subcommittee have made recommendations that summarize new indicators for catching signs of the spread of the new coronavirus and taking strong measures quickly.

Since the "stage" index for viewing the infection status shown last year did not work well, we reviewed the index for determining the stage and went to the entertainment district at night and the number of infected people in the younger generation, which is the starting point of infection. It is said that it will lead to early measures by grasping the number of people who are infected.

In the recommendations, the national government, local governments, and experts are quickly aware of the existing indicators for taking measures such as "stage lll", which indicates a rapid increase in infection, and "stage lV", which indicates an explosive spread. It is said that it was reviewed in order to catch the signs of the spread of the infection as soon as possible and to take measures, even if it was not shared and sometimes did not work.

Among these, since the infection spreads to the elderly starting from the younger generation, it can be used as an index to grasp the "rise from a stable situation" in the early stage of the spread of infection. ▽ It is necessary to pay attention to the number of people in the entertainment district at night.

In addition, as an index for grasping "the timing when the infection spreads further and there is a high possibility of reaching stage lV and strong measures should be taken before that", ▽ The maximum number of beds secured by prefectures is satisfied in 2 to 4 weeks. It is necessary to set the number of newly infected people who are expected to reach the floor and keep an eye on the trends.

Then, we reviewed some of the items that were used to judge the stage so far, and as an index to grasp the tightness of medical care, the percentage of those who are infected with the new corona and need medical treatment or hospitalization. Was newly added as the "hospitalization rate".

Basically, if it is judged as "stage lll" in the recommendation, take strong measures at an early stage including priority measures such as prevention of spread as a "circuit breaker" to apply a sudden brake when the infection is likely to spread. Is important.

It has been pointed out that the national and prefectural governments disagreed on who will make the stage decision in response to the third wave of infection, and it has been pointed out that the decision such as the state of emergency was delayed. We called on the country to take leadership when there is a risk of expansion.

Shigeru Omi, chairman of the subcommittee, said, "Experts have a strong feeling that measures could not be taken at the required timing due to various factors in the previous spread of infection. Based on the indicators shown this time, the national and prefectural governments If the stage is objectively equivalent to stage lll, I would like you to take absolutely strong measures. If the subcommittee decides that measures are necessary, it will be firmly communicated as an expert's responsibility. ".

Minister of Economic Revitalization Nishimura "Correspondence in cooperation with prefectures"

At a meeting of the government's subcommittee, Mr. Nishimura, the minister in charge of economic revitalization, said, "I understand that we can respond more quickly, recognizing the urgency, with refined and reinforced indicators. , I want to be able to respond in cooperation with prefectures. "

Satoshi Kamayachi, Executive Director, Japan Medical Association "Promptly take measures to be taken"

Satoshi Kamayachi, Executive Director of the Japan Medical Association, told reporters, "I had a bitter experience that I couldn't decide when I was consulting with the national and local governments, and the state of emergency was declared late. By stating my awareness, I think that the measures that should be taken will be swiftly taken. "

Governor Hirai of Tottori Prefecture "It's an important change"

Governor Hirai of Tottori Prefecture told reporters, "I would like to agree that the subcommittee has given advice on stage decisions. Some prefectural governors, even if they know the stage decisions, are residents. There are situations where it is difficult to do due to political positions such as requests from various organizations and groups. It is an important change because the subcommittee may not be able to move unless clearly stated. "

In the background is the delay in judgment in the "third wave"

In the background of the government's subcommittee on measures against the new coronavirus, the "third wave" of the rapidly expanding infection was behind the proposal that summarized new indicators to catch the signs of the spread of infection and take strong measures quickly. However, even if there are signs of expansion after November last year, the decision to take strong measures was delayed, and as a result, it has led to a large expansion.

In August last year, the government subcommittee needed strong measures such as "stage lll", which requires measures to avoid the situation where infections are rapidly increasing and a state of emergency is issued, and the explosion of infections, which declares a state of emergency. Shows indicators for promptly taking countermeasures for each stage of infection status, such as "Stage lV", and shows the specific stage of each prefecture, the number of newly infected people, the tightness of beds, etc. I decided to make a decision based on that.

Shigeru Omi, chairman of the subcommittee, said at a press conference at that time, "I would like the national and prefectural governments to make a comprehensive judgment as soon as possible and take measures so that they can be stopped at the stage lll at worst." When the infection gradually spread nationwide from November to December last year, we requested the national and prefectural governments to take measures with reference to the concept of the stage.

However, at that time, there were disagreements between the national and prefectural governments regarding which stage each prefecture was in and who decided the stage.

For this reason, the decision on the stage to proceed with the measures was delayed, and while strong measures such as the declaration of an emergency were not issued, the end of the year when there were many opportunities for dinner such as year-end parties led to the rapid spread of infection during the year-end and New Year holidays. Is analyzing.

After that, Chairman Omi of the subcommittee repeatedly emphasized the importance of a "circuit breaker" that enables sudden braking at the stage when the infection is likely to spread, based on the response at the time when the spread started in the third wave. I did.

Last month, at a press conference held before the state of emergency was lifted, "We have shown the idea of ​​taking necessary measures in the situation of'stage lll', but at the beginning of the third wave, as expected. The circuit breaker takes objective and automatic countermeasures when it exceeds a certain value, and it is activated when there is a sign of infection spread without being influenced by arbitrary judgment, and it prevents the spread. I want you to be able to use measures such as priority measures promptly. "