Parisian service station closed, on the 32nd day of a lockdown aimed at stemming the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic -

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  • Sales of electric vehicles are exploding even as the automotive market plunges, according to our partner The Conversation.

  • According to forecasts, most of the new registrations in Europe will be electric in just a few years.

  • The analysis of this phenomenon was carried out by Philippe Copinschi, professor of international relations at Sciences Po Paris.

It is a silent revolution that is underway.

In an automobile market in full doldrums in the wake of the health crisis - sales of new cars plunged by 24% in Europe in 2020 compared to 2019 - sales of electric vehicles (EVs, including 100% electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids) exploded in 2020. In particular in Europe, now the world's largest EV market, ahead of China.

This is the analysis that we carried out with other researchers in a report published by the Observatory for the security of energy flows and materials.

While they only represented 3% of car sales in Europe in 2019, they exceeded 10% of market share in 2020, with a marked acceleration at the end of the year.

Last December, their share thus reached 20 to 25% in the main European markets (Germany, France, United Kingdom, and significantly more in the pioneer markets of northern Europe such as Sweden (50%), -Bas (75%) and especially Norway, where they now contribute more than 85% of sales - against less than 20% just 5 years ago, and where sales of gasoline and diesel cars have become insignificant, respectively 5 and 2.5% of the market in December 2020.

This spectacular development, which comes even though the price of oil has remained structurally low throughout 2020, can be explained by a combination of several factors.

Dashboard of a hybrid vehicle © Conscious Design / Unsplash

Lower cost, higher autonomy

On average, the battery alone is more than half the price of an electric car, but continuous technological advancements have already resulted in a substantial reduction in their cost of manufacture.

With this falling cost and increasing range, EVs are gradually filling their lack of competitiveness compared to cars with combustion engines, especially as most European countries grant generous financial assistance to the purchase and that many municipalities reserve appreciable advantages for EV drivers: charging stations made available, privileged access to bus lanes or car parks, etc.

The other key factor explaining the surge in sales of electric vehicles is the evolution of European legislation on CO2 emissions from cars.

The continuous lowering - and announced long in advance - of the authorized emission thresholds for new cars has for several years been pushing manufacturers to offer an ever wider range of electric vehicles: in 2020, nearly 65 new models were put on the European market and they should be around 100 this year.

Unlike one-off government financial aid which has a temporary impact, the European Union's strategy has enabled the development of a complete ecosystem of electric vehicles by offering manufacturers the long-term predictability essential to make the heavy investments necessary.

This conjunction of factors - financial, regulatory, industrial - allows the electric vehicle to now establish itself as a new standard for individual mobility.

Oil dethroned

At the current rate, most new registrations in Europe will be electric in just a few years.

This is a radical change in the mobility paradigm.

A century after having established itself as the essential energy in transport, oil will thus lose a large part of its status as a strategic resource for which each government must imperatively ensure the correct supply for the security and economy of the country.

Freight transport, road and sea, still depends almost exclusively on oil - 99% for maritime transport (IEA), and in 2020 in Europe, truck sales were 96% diesel, even if the alternatives (gas natural, biofuels, hydrogen, electricity, etc.) are becoming more competitive.

Shipping is still 99% dependent on oil © PostCardTrip / Pixabay

As for air transport, it should remain totally dependent on oil for many years to come.

However, the capacity of societies to move and of armies to conduct military operations is gradually ceasing to rely exclusively on the availability of oil.

In addition, the electrification of road mobility, which accounts for nearly half of the global consumption of black gold, could quickly place the oil industry in production overcapacity.

Many prospectivists have long considered that it was the inevitable exhaustion of oil resources that would make energy transition necessary in the field of transport.

It is actually global warming and to a lesser extent, air pollution, which appear to be the main motivations behind this electrification of mobility.

As the former Saudi oil minister, Sheikh Ahmed Yamani liked to recall, "the stone age did not end for lack of stone", but because man made scientific progress allowing him to develop more efficient technologies.

A resource reserved for the poorest

In the unequal world we live in, that does not mean that oil will quickly cease to be consumed on a large scale - especially in developing countries where access to advanced technologies is often limited.

This is particularly the case in sub-Saharan Africa, which has long since become the receptacle for old European and Asian cars that no longer meet the environmental or safety standards of their countries of origin.

Our “Electric car” dossier

But black gold is certainly changing its status: a strategic energy for which the great powers were ready to fight, it is about to become the energy of the poor, that which will be used by the populations of the States. not having the means to acquire the most advanced technologies.

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This analysis was written by Philippe Copinschi, professor of international relations at Sciences Po Paris.


The original article was published on The Conversation website.

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