Vaccination of the new coronavirus will begin next month for the elderly, but a group at the University of Tsukuba estimated that AI = artificial intelligence would be used to infect the elderly in Tokyo at the same pace as the second wave last summer. When re-expanding, the results show that even if vaccination is urgent, the effect of suppressing the next epidemic is limited.
This is a trial calculation by a group of Professor Setsuya Kurahashi of the University of Tsukuba and others using a simulation using AI.
The group estimates how vaccination will affect the spread of the infection, assuming that the infection will re-spread at the same level as when the second wave came in the summer after the first state of emergency was lifted last year. Did.
As a result, in Tokyo, without vaccination, the fourth wave of infection peaked in mid-May, and the number of newly infected people per day reached 1,850.
On the other hand, even if the elderly are given priority vaccination and about 35,000 people, which is 0.3% of the population, are inoculated every day in Tokyo, the number of newly infected people is 1650 per day at the peak of May. It was calculated that the decrease would be only 10.8%.
If the pace of inoculation is accelerated and about 115,000 people, which is 1% of the population, are inoculated every day, the number of newly infected people at the peak is 1540 per day, which is 16.8% less, but the epidemic itself cannot be suppressed and the effect is effective. The result was limited.
Professor Kurahashi, who made the trial calculation, said, "It turned out that the effect of the vaccine cannot be expected in the 4th wave. It is important to continue such things. "