China News Agency, Beijing, March 24 (Reporter Pang Wuji) Not only did the regulatory storm that began at the beginning of the year have not stopped, the Chinese property market may also face fluctuations brought about by economic cycle switching.

With multiple factors superimposed, the property market in the near future, especially property speculators, will usher in the four major “bads”.

　　First, many places "encirclement and suppress" business loans illegally flowed into the property market.

This time, the first-tier cities acted almost simultaneously.

The four cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen comprehensively investigated banking institutions in their jurisdictions to prevent operating loans and other credit funds from flowing into the real estate market in violation of regulations.

　　The investigation results were also announced in various places.

For example, the Beijing Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau recently announced that its self-examination found that since the second half of 2020, the amount of personal operating loans suspected of illegally flowing into the Beijing real estate market was approximately 340 million yuan (RMB, the same below).

Self-examination by banking institutions in the Guangzhou area found 147 million yuan and 305 problematic loans suspected of illegally flowing into the real estate market.

Shenzhen recently notified the results of the special verification of operating loans that 21 loans with a value of 51.8 million yuan of suspected violations have been recovered in advance.

　　Business loans, consumer loans and other illegal funds have played a role in fueling the flames in a round of housing prices in some cities since last year.

In order to support the real economy, many banks launched low-interest operating loan products or offered discounts for operating loans during the epidemic. After the discount, the annualized operating loan interest rate was as low as about 3.8%, while the interest rates of commercial mortgage loans in various regions were generally higher than 5 %.

The arbitrage space brought about by interest rate differentials has allowed some real estate speculators to take advantage of the loopholes, and some people who did not originally have the ability to buy houses "forcibly boarded the car" and pushed up the property market.

　　Second, the housing fever in school districts has been hit by policies.

School district housing has always been a special presence in the real estate market and has always been one of the focuses of the real estate market speculation.

Since the second half of last year, the rapid rise of second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen, Shanghai and other places mostly started with the warming of housing in school districts.

　　Recently, Shanghai issued a new education policy. Starting from 2022, 50%-65% of the enrollment quota of Shanghai's prestigious high schools will be fairly allocated to districts or schools.

Last year, Xicheng District in Beijing also introduced policies such as "multi-school division".

　　Li Yujia, the chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, pointed out that recently introduced policies such as: "multi-school division", "equal allocation of quotas", "university district system", and "civil recruitment" and other policies. The competition between them is getting fiercer and fiercer.

Once the competition is big and the grades start to work, the role of the school district's housing diminishes.

He believes that the "cooling" mode has been turned on for the degree rooms that have always had a high fever.

　　Third, the regulation and control will go deep into the field of second-hand housing.

After Shenzhen released the reference prices for second-hand housing transactions in the city's 3,595 residential communities, Chengdu also proposed "establishing a mechanism for the release of reference prices for second-hand housing transactions" in the recently released new housing market policy.

　　Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, said that in the past, the regulation was mainly based on the regulation of new houses, which affected market expectations by restricting land and new house prices, but there was a lack of effective control tools for the scattered second-hand housing market.

The recent regulation has shifted to the second-hand housing market.

　　Xu Xiaole pointed out that starting from Shenzhen, through the official guide price of second-hand housing, to guide consumers and banks to rationally evaluate the value of houses, it can control the increase in housing prices within a certain reasonable range.

Since the Spring Festival, the transaction volume of Shenzhen's second-hand housing market has dropped to a low level, and the upward trend of housing prices has been curbed.

　　Fourth, many countries have started a cycle of interest rate hikes, and liquidity inflection points may appear.

　　Recently, Brazil, Turkey, and Russia have raised interest rates successively, becoming the first economies to enter the interest rate hike cycle since the epidemic.

Many economists predict that, for most countries in the world, a new cycle of interest rate hikes may begin.

　　Ren Zeping, a well-known economist, said earlier: “We may be standing at a cyclical turning point in liquidity.” He believes that around the first quarter of 2021, as the top range of economic recovery is approaching, inflation expectations are rising, and monetary policy The return to normalization and the structural tightening of credit policies will usher in a cyclical inflection point of broad liquidity.

　　Over the past few decades, global currency oversupply and low interest rates have led to sharp rises in the prices of stocks, real estate and other assets.

Once the liquidity turning point appears, it may have a direct impact on the property market.

　　Ren Zeping pointed out that in 2020, driven by low interest rates and monetary easing, the recovery of the real estate market has contributed significantly to the economic recovery cycle since March.

However, with the return of monetary policy to normalization and marginal tightening since May to June, real estate sales and investment are facing downward pressure in the future.

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