The banks of the Seine, March 1, 2021. -

HOUPLINE-RENARD / SIPA

  • The incidence rate in the region now reaches 420 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

  • Resuscitation services are on the verge of saturation with nearly 96% of beds occupied by patients with Covid-19.

  • Vaccination is still a long way from offering group immunity.

It has become a real sea serpent: will the Ile-de-France in turn be confined, on weekends like the departments of Alpes-Maritimes or Pas-de-Calais, or even during the week like during the second wave?

"All the options are on the table," members of the government struggle to repeat.

However, while until now this hypothesis seemed systematically ruled out, the noose now seems to be tightening.

Focus on three figures which should weigh heavily in the balance during the defense council which is being held this Wednesday.

Incidence greater than 400 at the regional level

Unlike several European countries, France has never established - at least officially - a "containment threshold", that is to say an indicator above which measures would be automatically triggered.

Each decision, we explain to the government, is made on a case-by-case basis.

However, during his interview on Twitch on Sunday evening, Prime Minister Jean Castex for the first time mentioned an incidence rate above 400 as a tipping point.

"We started [the confinement on weekends] in these departments when the incidence rate was 400 per 100,000 inhabitants," he said, before specifying that the Ile-de-France region was "still below ”.

However, this milestone, already crossed by several Ile-de-France departments last week, has now been reached at the regional level.

In one month, the incidence rate has almost doubled in Ile-de-France: on February 16, there were 236 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, it is now around 420 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

Seine-Saint-Denis, Val-d'Oise and Val-de-Marne are the three departments of France most affected by the epidemic, ahead of the Alpes-Maritimes and Pas-de-Calais, confined for several weekends.

A situation which is all the more worrying as the curves of all the Ile-de-France departments are rising sharply, driven in particular by the virulence of the British variant.

96% of intensive care beds occupied by Covid + patients

This is the direct consequence of the increase in the incidence rate: the resuscitation services in Ile-de-France are now reaching saturation point.

On Monday, the number of patients hospitalized in critical care, that is to say in resuscitation and intensive care, exceeded the peak of the second wave of the epidemic.

Today, there are 1,164 patients infected with Covid-19 in these services, or 96% of their capacity.

And in all likelihood, the peak is still far from being reached as the incidence continues to soar.

To deal with the situation, the director of the Regional Health Agency, Aurélien Rousseau, gave, 10 days ago, "the firm order" to public and private establishments to deprogram 40% of their activities in order to have as soon as possible to 1,577 beds for coronavirus patients.

The transfer of around a hundred patients from the Ile-de-France region to regions where hospital pressure is less has also been recorded.

A decision that the health authorities are struggling, for the moment, to apply: only ten patients were transferred in three days, said on Wednesday the director general of the Public Assistance-Hospitals of Paris, Martin Hirsch, in an interview on RTL.

“When you look at the number of patients who are stable enough to be transported, you have just over 10%.

And, of these 10%, there is a family refusal rate which is a little higher than in the spring, ”he detailed.

Our dossier on containment

6.56% of the Ile-de-France population vaccinated

Bet on vaccination to avoid re-containment, This is the option defended by the mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, since the hypothesis is on the table.

A point of view not only undermined by epidemiologists who recall that it takes a fortnight before a vaccine begins to be effective, but also by the latest figures.

If in absolute terms, Ile-de-France is the department in which the largest number of people have received at least one dose of vaccine, reported to its population, the region is lagging behind.

Only 6.56% of the Ile-de-France population is vaccinated, against more than 10% in Corsica, nearly 9% in Bourgogne Franche-Comté or New Aquitaine.

In question: the demography of the region, younger and therefore not a priority in access to the vaccine.

The fact remains that we are far from the 60 to 70% necessary for collective immunity to be achieved.

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  • Covid 19

  • Coronavirus

  • Society

  • Confinement

  • Paris