Weeks of enormous political intensity are looming around the Madrid electoral campaign.
The succession of events has led to an early call for elections, an abrupt departure from Moncloa by Pablo Iglesias and an open decomposition of Citizens.
Politics accelerates imitating the rhythms of television serials and
the political board jumps through the air before the astonished eyes of citizens
, fatigued by the pandemic and anguished by the dimension
d
e the economic crisis.
In this context, it is not surprising that the survey carried out for this newspaper by Sigma Dos offers a scenario of uncertainty.
It is true that
the candidacy led by Isabel Díaz Ayuso would win the elections with clarity
, almost doubling the current representation of the PP, but it would be far from the absolute majority.
Its growth comes at the expense of Ignacio Aguado's Cs, whom the Madrilenians would punish harshly but would not become extra-parliamentary, as some other polls have advanced.
Vox would come to maintain its same number of seats, and in this way the post-electoral panorama would force the three parties to understand each other again, although with the correlation of forces notably modified in favor of Ayuso.
His leadership during the pandemic has been built around the clear goal of safeguarding maximum freedom.
possible within the restrictions imposed by health needs, and the Madrilenians surveyed more than reward this effort aimed at an arduous reconciliation between economy and health.
On the left bank, the most significant thing about the survey is that
Pablo Iglesias will have to work hard if he intends to make the coup effective in votes
that supposes his abandonment of the second vice-presidency of the Government to attend the autonomic ones.
The candidacy of Más Madrid holds, and the refusal of Mónica García to merge with Iglesias chronifies a fratricidal division that can damage the expectations of both.
As for Angel
Gabilondo, whom the elections surprise when he already seemed to be leaving
Presumably, he will try to maximize his moderate profile, a strategy that in highly polarized scenarios may end up inviting melancholy: according to Sigma Dos, he stays with the same seats he had.
Despite the stagnation and fragmentation of the left and the still uncertain Iglesias effect, Ayuso cannot be trusted.
He had no choice but to risk and call elections to avoid the triumph of a vote of no confidence.
Fortune often helps the bold, but
You need to launch an ambitious campaign that covers the entire political spectrum from the center to the right, and even broadens it.
towards temperate social democratic positions where there is an understandable rejection of the irruption of churches on the scene.
There is much more at stake than power in Madrid: it is about defending the very viability of a liberal alternative to Sanchismo for the next few years throughout Spain.
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