To believe the rumors circulating in the Western chancelleries, during the spring of 2011, its inevitable fall was only a matter of weeks.
But ten years after the first demonstrations of the uprising against his regime, Bashar al-Assad is still in power in a country in ruins, on its knees economically and traumatized by an interminable conflict.
This war claimed the lives of several hundred thousand people, caused the exodus of millions of Syrians, and plunged more than 80% of the population into poverty, according to the UN.
Saved by the interventions of his Russian and Iranian allies, with whom he now has to deal in his own country, the Syrian president has regained military control of a large part of Syria, even if the violent clashes and the jihadist presence are still a reality in certain areas of the territory.
Although accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity, nothing seems to prevent Bashar al-Assad, 55 and in power since 2000, from winning the presidential election scheduled for this summer.
A president
indebted to the Russians and the Iranians
"He is still in power and we do not see what alternative we could oppose to him, especially on the side of the West, and as for his Russian and Iranian allies, they have no reason to replace him, so yes, he won his bet to save his regime ", explains to France 24 Fabrice Balanche, lecturer at the University of Lyon 2, geographer and specialist in Syria.
"Unlike Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, Hosni Mubarak or Colonel Gaddafi, who were all swept away by the Arab revolts, Bashar al-Assad has maintained himself in power by making his population pay a high price. If we can consider that he is under the tutelage of his Russian and Iranian protectors, the fact remains that he is indeed the Syrian president, it is not Vladimir Poutine, it is Bashar al-Assad ", insists Antoine Mariotti, journalist at France 24 and author of "The Shame of the West - The Behind the Scenes of the Syrian Fiasco", published on March 11 by Tallandier editions.
Interviewed by France 24, Ziad Majed, professor at the American University of Paris and one of the authors of "In the head of Bashar al-Assad", published by Actes Sud, believes however that the Syrian president is no longer master of its own destiny, nor of that of the Syrian conflict and its resolution, and that it is above all Russia and Iran who have imposed themselves in Syria.
"Even if the departure of the Syrian president is no longer demanded by any foreign actor in the conflict, and this question no longer has been a priority since the Russian intervention which sanctuarized the regime, Moscow and Tehran made it clear to Bashar al- Assad that they are his only hope to stay in power, he says. And this reality could weaken him if ever, and this is far from being the case today, serious negotiations were undertaken to find a solution including a political transition ".
A
sovereignty
Limited
Moreover, the Syrian president seems to be satisfied with a limited sovereignty over his own country.
"He knows how much he is indebted to the Russians and the Iranians, emphasizes Antoine Mariotti. Because without their political, diplomatic and above all military support, it is not certain that he would still be in power today".
According to Fabrice Balanche, Bashar al-Assad has no choice but to accept the current situation because he needs his allies to protect him on the international scene but also to complete the reconquest of Syria.
"In the East, we know how to be extremely patient, and Bashar al-Assad is turning its back in order to remain indispensable in their eyes, he said. Ultimately, what Moscow and Tehran want is the stability of the country, and as long as he is able to ensure this, this configuration will remain unchanged, for he is the pillar on which everything rests.
While the Syrian territory is under the influence of several foreign actors of the conflict such as Russia, Iran, and Turkey, who directly or through their allies control areas of Syrian territory, the reality of the power of Bashar al- Assad appears weakened.
"To understand who controls what in Syria", we must look at the control of the country's borders, because they are a marker of sovereignty and a projection of sovereign power, explains Fabrice Balanche.
“Today, the Syrian army directly controls only 15% of the country's borders, mainly the one that separates Syria from Jordan and a small piece of the border in the north of Lebanon,” he says. extremely revealing of the reality of the power of Bashar al-Assad, because if he was strong and if he had the choice, he would not let Lebanese Hezbollah, the pro-Iranian Shiite militias and Russia control the rest of the borders, instead of the Syrian army ”.
"Even in the airspace, Damascus does not control anything, since Israeli planes can bomb targets in Syria at any time, and the Syrian sky is normally supposed to be protected by Russia."
For Ziad Majed, "the regime no longer has a say in a fragmented country occupied by foreign forces because it no longer manages anything except its prison system and its internal policy in the areas over which it has control. This is all that remains of the sovereignty of the Syrian state since it is neither master of its defense, nor of its diplomacy which is modeled on those of its Russian and Iranian protectors ".
An asymmetrical relationship with its protectors
The Franco-Lebanese political scientist even compares the reality of the power of President Bashar al-Assad to that of Lebanese officials during the Syrian occupation of the country of the Cedar (from 1976 to 2005).
"Ironically, he is treated by the Russians the same way he treated and humiliated puppet presidents and Lebanese politicians during the occupation, since he is at the mercy of Vladimir Putin who can hit him. on his fingers or summon him to Moscow whenever he sees fit ".
The Russians, like the Iranians, prefer to have a weakened leader under their control in order to make him even more dependent on their support, he argues.
The situation can be compared with that of occupied Lebanon, agrees Fabrice Balanche, "in the sense that Syria has become an Iranian-Russian protectorate, and that Moscow is in a position to impose its will on the Syrian president, who is its obligator" .
He specifies however that "when he is summoned to Russia, Vladimir Poutine does not seek to humiliate Bashar al-Assad, while the Lebanese leaders were summoned more ostensibly to Damascus".
In this asymmetrical relationship, he continues, the Syrian president is not really in a position to say no to the Russians and is sometimes forced to make concessions.
"However, he still retains a certain power of nuisance to stand up to Moscow, by reminding them for example that it remains essential to bring up information gathered by its intelligence services, and which are crucial for the security of Russian troops in Syria".
Bashar al-Assad "knows that the Iranians and the Russians are obliged to do with him, since he himself has prevented the emergence of any potential competitor, and that is what he uses to balance his relations with his two protectors are well on their way to stay a while, "decrypts Antoine Mariotti.
"No one within the regime can stand up against him, and he will succeed himself in the presidential election, and the Russians know it very well."
The Syrian president retains the freedom to get closer to the Iranians when the Russians are a little too demanding, and vice versa, and when he senses a flaw, confirms Fabrice Balanche.
"He knows how to maneuver between these two protectors whom he considers a little trapped in Syria where they are obliged to stay after having invested a lot, and this, while respecting the red lines that they must have surely fixed him", specifies- he does.
Towards an international rehabilitation?
In such a context, it remains to be seen whether the arrival of Joe Biden at the White House can revive the question of a political transition in Syria, while his predecessor Donald Trump was totally disinterested in the question.
"When the Syrian regime was the most in difficulty, it was Barack Obama who was in power in the United States, and Joe Biden was its vice-president, recalls Antoine Mariotti. However, Bashar al-Assad understood that he had little to fear, even after large-scale chemical attacks. So he shouldn't be particularly afraid of the Democratic return to business, as Joe Biden didn't really want to jump right in. an arm wrestling with Moscow for an opposition which hardly exists any more ".
If he is sure to stay in power, what else can Bashar al-Assad hope for?
International rehabilitation?
On Tuesday, March 9, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed said US sanctions against Syria were hampering Damascus from returning to the Arab League.
Syria was suspended from the Pan-Arab organization at the end of 2011 due to the ferocity of the repression of demonstrations against the Damascus regime, and several Gulf powers, future supporters of Syrian rebel movements, had bet on a rapid downfall of Bashar al -Assad.
"In terms of rehabilitation, he is lucid and guesses that he does not have much hope vis-à-vis the West, because that would require the regime to make concessions that it cannot make in matters of human rights and political transition, Fabrice Balanche analyzes. But Bashar al-Assad can reconnect with the Arab countries which seem less closed to this idea than the Europeans and the Americans ".
And to conclude: "Damascus looks especially towards Russia and China which in its eyes embody an alternative model to the Western model, and with which Syria can deal economically without the issue of human rights being in the middle of the table".
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