Jean Castex did not announce any strong measures during his press conference this Thursday -

Mathieu Pattier / SIPA

  • Once again, Jean Castex's press conference gave birth to a mouse this Thursday, the Prime Minister not having announced any real new strong measure.

  • This is not the first time that the government seems to delay decision making as much as possible.

  • Why this political choice?

During a press conference organized this Thursday, Prime Minister Jean Castex listed 20 departments placed under enhanced surveillance ... without announcing specific measures related to this status.

Nevertheless, it is up to the prefects of these territories "to consider braking measures similar to those implemented in Nice and Dunkirk" (partial confinement during the weekend in particular).

A point will be organized at the end of next week on these consultations, and restrictive measures against the coronavirus will be put in place from the weekend of March 6 "if the situation were to deteriorate further," said the Prime Minister.

A week of additional time that struggles to find a scientific justification.

This is not the first time that the government has only evoked possible measures instead of putting them in place, only to establish them a few days later.

We will think pell-mell about the first confinement, postponed for a few days during the first round of municipal elections, the curfew put in place on October 17 in Paris and 19 other metropolises, then extended to 54 departments on October 23, before a second national confinement decreed on October 29, with the 6 p.m. curfew first introduced in the East before being declared nationally two weeks later, and the situation in Dunkirk and Alpes-Maritimes, having several weeks before initiating measures.

Division at the top

Why such inertia in decisions?

Stéphane Rozès, political scientist and president of CAP (Advice, analyzes and perspectives), analyzes: “The government must manage at the same time the health, economic, social and psychological constraint of this pandemic, and there is a division at the top of the State between the president who does not want to take too restrictive measures and the Prime Minister or the Ministry of Health who are to act quickly and preventively.

A dichotomy leading to endless debates and therefore a delay in decision-making, when they are finally taken.

Far from being suffered, this delay is perhaps also agreed, in particular by Emmanuel Macron, of whom multiple unofficial sources report to the media that he would be fiercely opposed to a re-containment.

This was particularly strongly anticipated for February, after an increase in cases, before Jean Castex announced on Friday January 29 that simple restrictions at the borders and for large non-food businesses.

Risky bet

"Since this bet not to reconfine in February, Emmanuel Macron thinks he is too committed to back down, and therefore wishes to continue despite increasingly worrying signals," regrets epidemiologist Michaël Rochoy.

Including an average of 300 deaths per day in hospital throughout the month of February and variants, mainly the British variant, having become the majority during the month.

For Stéphane Rozès, “if Emmanuel Macron made the bet not to reconfine at the beginning of February, it is not to do it a few days later, it would be a disavowal.

If there is re-containment, it will therefore only arrive at the last moment with a situation totally out of control.

According to him, this will also allow better support from the population, he who fears disobedience.

But why such a risky bet, which could quickly fall on him now that he has let it leak out that it was he and he alone who had made this decision?

And quite precisely, in order to heal his image as a man of decision in the run-up to the presidential elections of 2022. The political scientist continues: "Emmanuel Macron wants to detach himself from scientists so that his political opponents cannot reproach him for not being a real leader.

He thinks that the barrage against Marine Le Pen will not be enough for 2022 and wants to embody above all a man of decision, ready to fight against the general opinion.

"

Wait for the storm to pass

The idea would therefore be not to confine, except in a truly apocalyptic situation, and to wait for things to improve.

There are a few reasons for hope: the return of spring, which should increase temperatures and therefore reduce risky behavior (poorly ventilated and ventilated rooms, indoor gathering) and especially the vaccination campaign.

Certainly, this is having its first effects, since it is surely responsible for a spectacular drop in deaths in nursing homes.

The daily number of coronavirus-related deaths at these facilities has fallen by more than 50% in three weeks, as 80% of its members have received at least one injection.

However, nursing homes represent 44% of coronavirus deaths in France.

But the latter are an exception.

"Ultimately, vaccination should allow a return to normal life, by this summer in France, but for the moment, only 4% of the population is vaccinated," recalls Michaël Rochoy.

If doses must arrive massively in March and April, making it possible to accelerate the movement, "it means without confinement or strong measure to continue on this plateau and its hundreds of deaths, hospitalizations and all its long Covids every day.

Moreover, as happy as the news concerning nursing homes is, this population, too fragile, was not admitted to intensive care.

Their vaccination does not therefore solve the problem of hospitals.

Our file on the coronavirus

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What inevitably darken the plans of Emmanuel Macron.

But what does it matter for Stéphane Rozès, “even if there is reconfinement, he can always argue for having postponed it, now for more than a month, and for having done everything for it.

"Michaël Rochoy is less convinced:" Beyond the avoidable deaths, if the population is confined during the sunny spring for several weeks instead of a cold and dark month in February, I doubt that she appreciates such a failed bet ... »Not to make a decision, it remains a decision, and it will inevitably have consequences.

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