Tendency to slow down infection reduction 10 prefectures with extended declaration

It's been six weeks since the state of emergency was issued, and about two weeks after the decision to extend it.

When NHK calculated the "effective reproduction number", which is one of the indicators of the infection status and shows how many people the infection spreads from one infected person, by a simple method, the state of emergency was extended in 10 prefectures. All of them are heading toward convergence, but in most regions, the value of effective reproduction numbers is slightly higher than the previous week, and the rate of infection reduction tends to slow down.

Under the supervision of Motoi Suzuki, Director of the Epidemiology Center for Infectious Diseases, the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, NHK calculated the effective reproduction number of 10 prefectures for which the state of emergency was extended by a simple method based on the data up to the 18th. did.

The effective reproduction number indicates how many people are infected from one infected person, and it is said that the infection spreads when it exceeds "1", and converges when it falls below "1".

In order to get it more accurately, it is necessary to consider more conditions such as estimating the onset date and calculating it, but since it takes time, the number of infected people per day confirmed as a guideline is also included. It is calculated by a simple method.

* In the future, the data on the number of effective reproductions released by public institutions may differ as a result.

Tokyo

The number of effective reproductions in Tokyo

was 1.28 as of the 7th of

last month and 1.22 as of the 14th of last month, which exceeded "1", but

it was 0.94 as of the 21st of last month. It was below "1".

After that,

▼ 0.73 as of 28th of last month

,

▼

0.75 as of 4th of

this month,

▼

0.78 as of 11th of this month,

▼ 0.82 as of 18th, although the tendency of convergence does not change, the speed of infection decrease will be this month. It has tended to be a little dull since it entered.

Kanagawa Prefecture

In Kanagawa prefecture, it was

1.11 as of the 7th of

last month, 1.45 as of the 14th of last month, even after the state of emergency was declared, but it was

0.97 as of the 21st of last month,

0.68 as of 28th of last month, and

▼ this month. It is 0.71 as of the 4th, 0.71 as of the

11th of this month,

and 0.74 as of the 18th, which is below "1".

Saitama

In Saitama Prefecture

▼ 1.10 as of 7th of

last month

,

▼ 1.25 as of 14th of

last month,

▼

1.05 as of 21st of

last month,

▼

0.73 as of 28th of last month

,

▼

0.89 as of 4th of

this month

,

▼ 0.80 as of 11th of this month,

▼ As of the 18th, it is 0.83, which is below "1".

Chiba

In Chiba prefecture

▼ 1.22 as of 7th of

last month

,

▼ 1.42 as of 14th of

last month,

▼

1.04 as of 21st of

last month,

▼

0.82 as of 28th of last month,

▼ 0.78 as of 4th of

this month

,

▼ 0.74 as of 11th of this month ,

▼ As of the 18th, it is 0.85, which is below "1".

Greater Tokyo area 1 metropolitan area 3 prefectures

The entire Tokyo and three prefectures

1.21 at the time ▼ last month 7 days,

▼ last month 14 days 1.30 at the time,

▼ last month 0.98 in 21 days time,

▼ last month 28 days 0.73 at the time,

▼ this month 0.77 in four days time,

▼ this month 11 days At the time of 0.76,

▼ 0.81 at the 18th, which is below "1", but the rate of decrease of infection tends to slow down a little.

Aichi prefecture

Aichi Prefecture was

▼ 1.05 as of 7th of

last month

,

▼ 1.13 as of 14th of

last month,

▼

0.91 as of 21st of

last month,

▼

0.85 as of 28th of last month,

▼ 0.66 as of 4th of

this month

,

▼ 11th of this month At the time of 0.81,

▼ As of the 18th, it was 0.78, which is below "1".

Gifu Prefecture

Gifu Prefecture is

▼ 1.17 as of 7th of

last month

,

▼ 1.01 as of 14th of

last month,

▼

0.91 as of 21st of

last month,

▼

0.79 as of 28th of last month,

▼ 0.73 as of 4th of

this month

,

▼ 0.90 as of 11th of this month ,

▼ As of the 18th, it is 0.75, which is below "1".

Osaka

Osaka Prefecture was

▼ 1.26 as of 7th of

last month

,

▼ 1.31 as of 14th of

last month,

▼

0.96 as of 21st of

last month,

▼

0.82 as of 28th of last month,

▼ 0.72 as of 4th of

this month

,

▼ 11th of this month As of the time, it was 0.70, and as of the

18th, it was 0.76, which is below "1".

Kyoto

Kyoto Prefecture is

▼ 1.02 as of 7th of

last month

,

▼ 1.22 as of 14th of

last month,

▼

0.99 as of 21st of

last month,

▼

0.90 as of 28th of last month,

▼ 0.66 as of 4th of

this month

,

▼ 0.55 as of 11th of this month ,

▼ As of the 18th, it is 0.74, which is below "1".

Hyogo prefecture

Hyogo prefecture is

▼ 0.97 as of 7th of

last month

,

▼ 1.33 as of 14th of

last month,

▼

0.98 as of 21st of

last month,

▼

0.84 as of 28th of last month,

▼ 0.70 as of 4th of

this month

,

▼ as of 11th of this month 0.68,

▼ As of the 18th, it was 0.76, which is below "1".

Kansai 2 prefectures 1 prefecture

In 2 prefectures and 1 prefecture in Kansai

,

▼

1.12 as of 7th of

last month,

▼

1.30 as of 14th of

last month,

▼

0.97 as of 21st of

last month,

▼

0.84 as of 28th of last month,

▼ 0.70 as of 4th of

this month

,

▼ 11 of this month It is 0.67 as of the

date and 0.76 as of the 18th.

Fukuoka Prefecture

Fukuoka Prefecture is

▼ 1.18 as of 7th of

last month

,

▼ 1.28 as of 14th of

last month,

▼

1.02 as of 21st of

last month,

▼

0.75 as of 28th of last month,

▼ 0.70 as of 4th of

this month

,

▼ 0.82 as of 11th of this month ,

▼ As of the 18th, it was 0.83, which is below "1", but the rate of decrease is declining.

Whole country

In addition,

▼ 1.18 as of 7th of

last month

,

▼ 1.27 as of 14th of last month, which was higher than "1"

,

▼

0.96 as of 21st of

last month,

▼

0.77 as of 28th of last month,

▼ 4th of this month As of 0.74,

▼ 0.75 as of 11th of this month

,

▼

0.80 as of 18th, which is below "1".

Expert "Avoid thank-you party and farewell party"

Professor Kazuhiro Tateda of Toho University, the chairman of the Japanese Society of Infectious Diseases, said, "There is a tendency for the rate of infection to decrease, and there may be limits to controlling infection with current measures. There is a risk that it will slow down, in which case it will be difficult to cancel the state of emergency. It is a time of graduation ceremony and personnel changes, but please refrain from eating and drinking places such as thank-you party and farewell party. I want you to act with the awareness that it is an important time when the infection situation is affected. "