A protester in favor of the “Zero Covid” strategy in Germany.

So far, no country in continental Europe has implemented such a strategy.

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Markus Schreiber / AP / SIPA

  • The free circulation of the virus in Europe is currently leading to waves of "stop-and-go" of very restrictive restrictive measures.

  • Faced with this observation, more and more scientific voices are pleading for a “Zero Covid” strategy, namely the removal of the virus from the territory.

  • Ideal on paper and very effective in many island countries, is this strategy applicable in Europe?

Three hundred deaths per day on average, an endless curfew, variants that progress and a risk of third confinement ... Obviously, it is not so easy to "live with" the coronavirus, a strategy developed by the government - and more generally across Europe - after the first wave.

The idea is that if the virus is not completely eliminated, it should be kept at rates low enough so that it does not saturate hospitals or do too much damage.

Only now, containing the coronavirus is proving more difficult than expected.

Europe is reconfiguring massively and this winter experienced an even more deadly wave than that of spring.

So much so that more and more scientists are wondering: should we change our minds and aim for a “Zero Covid” strategy, like the one adopted in Vietnam, New Zealand or other southern countries? 

20 Minutes

takes stock.

What is the “Zero Covid” strategy?

As its name suggests, it is a question of aiming for the total disappearance of the virus on the territory and never to let it circulate, even at very low rates.

Its advantages, once applied, are numerous: very low number of deaths (0.55 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in New Zealand compared to 117.63 in France), no saturation of hospitals, an almost normal life (universities open most time, restaurants, bars, etc.).

This strategy has been adopted mainly in Asia and Oceania, which explains why the majority of deaths and cases, outside China at the start of the pandemic, concern America and Europe.

This strategy has its slightly less dogmatic variant in other nations, such as Australia, Norway, Japan or South Korea.

Antoine Flahault, epidemiologist and director of the Institute of Global Health at the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Geneva, details: “Instead of aiming for a strict dogmatic 'Zero Covid', we are looking for absolutely minimal circulation of the virus, which 'we tolerate a very very low threshold.

And at the slightest jolt, strong preventive measures are launched.

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As a result, these countries have a somewhat less immaculate record than those of the strict "Zero Covid", but the results are much better than the nations having adopted the "living with the virus".

Australia thus has a rate of 3.91 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, Japan 5.57, or South Korea 2.98.

Nothing to do with the balance sheets of most of the European countries.

And for Antoine Flahault, it is this strategy that seems more realistic for Europe than a strict “Zero Covid”.

How does it work?

At the slightest jolt of the virus, very strong, very strict and therefore very preventive measures are taken on a territorial scale.

A recent example is the new confinement in Melbourne (Australia), decreed on Friday January 12.

It follows… 13 cases of English variants detected in a hotel.

A very preventive measure therefore, serving to annihilate a potential risk of "super cluster".

But this prevention, in addition to short-circuiting the possible spread of the virus, has another advantage: by acting very early, we act very quickly.

Thus, this new confinement is only decreed for five days.

“The idea is not to give the virus time to spread.

Any signal is a warning signal that requires action.

On the other hand, these are short, the chains of contamination not having had time to fall into place, they break very quickly ”, indicates Antoine Flahault.

Example in particular in Perth, where confinement had been decreed for three days.

Is this strategy applicable to Europe?

On paper, the strategy therefore seems ideal.

Two problems remain for Europe.

First of all, you will not have missed it, most of the countries mentioned are islanders.

Europe, as a major tourist destination and as a continent, without internal borders, experiences much greater circulation on its territory.

In fact, for Antoine Flahault, this strategy can only be applied if "all of Europe decides to get together", which would transform the Old Continent into a kind of peninsula.

"The whole of Europe would adopt a" Zero Covid "strategy, allowing free movement within it, and entry into European territory would be extremely controlled.

»Containment and territorialized measures could also be put in place, rendering certain territories temporarily prohibited from access.

If, for example, cases in Moselle soar, the department could be completely confined until the figures come down.

For the moment, we are far from it, since the countries adopt different strategies, in particular France and Belgium which do not contain while Germany is aiming for a virtual elimination of the virus by lowering its rate target more and more. incidence.

Another difficulty, is the virus not already circulating too much to hope to make it fall so much?

For this “Zero Covid” strategy, Antoine Flahault pleads for no more than one case per 100,000 inhabitants.

Or in France 670 new cases per day maximum.

However, to go from the current 18,000 daily cases to 670 cases, it will be necessary "to take very strong measures and tighten the screw more than is already done", notes the epidemiologist.

But nothing to be totally discouraged, since in reality the scenario has already presented itself: in June 2020, after extremely strict measures, the incidence was very low everywhere in Europe, “the opportunity could have been taken at that time -there, but we thought then that the second wave would not take place.

“Today again, with the multiple confinements, the incidence is falling on the continent.

To see if the latter will see this time the opportunity to try to eradicate the virus from its territory.

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