A French woman confined to her apartment in April 2020. -

Sebastien SALOM-GOMIS / SIPA

  • The Futuribles International prospective think tank explores, in the Vigie 2020 Report, 16 scenarios that describe an international landscape, over the next 30 years, transformed by profound changes.

  • Among these scenarios, the multiplication of pandemic crises is envisaged.

  • Are we going to stay confined for the rest of our lives?

What if “stop-and-go” became our daily life by 2040?

Since the start of the health crisis, which plunged all the countries of the world into an unprecedented social crisis, society has alternated between periods of confinement, deconfinement, curfew, gnawing the morale of the populations month after month. (and especially young people).

Society despairs of rediscovering the daily life of the world before Covid-19, made up of intergenerational hugs, spitting discussions, crowded bars, pogos in the pit of concert halls.

In short, a carefree life.

By examining the Vigie 2020 report of Futuribles *, which explores 16 scenarios of rupture by 2040-2050, a question arises: can we envisage a return to the world before?

Not only does the coronavirus crisis seem to set in over time, but we have every chance of experiencing other (many) pandemics in the next twenty years.

Most prospective studies evoke the pandemic risk, it is even the custard tart of many works of science fiction.

And the Vigie 2020 report, which began its study before the arrival of the coronavirus, is no exception.

New diseases

In the coming years, new pandemics threaten us.

Several trends make it possible to envisage a multiplication of the pandemic risk by 2040. As we saw last December, “the increase in circulation and contacts between humans on a global scale favors the multiplication and circulation of virus, ”emphasizes Marie Ségur, researcher at Futuribles.

Global warming is another major trend.

According to several studies, an increase in the average temperature, even a minimal one, favors the arrival of new diseases.

"At each additional degree, there is a risk of proliferation of exogenous species in new environments," continues the author of the pandemic scenario.

They will be carriers of diseases transmissible to humans ”.

And, since these species are new to these environments, immune systems will not be adapted.

Without even mentioning the problem of the aging of the population, partly immunocompromised and fragile.

The perfect combo to see new pandemics emerge and all that goes with it.

"The world will experience other viruses, of a different nature, more contagious, more deadly," predicts Cécile Desaunay, director of studies at Futuribles.

Covid-19 mainly affects vulnerable people, which was not the case with the Spanish flu, for example, which also affected young people ”.

Worse yet, we could face several at the same time.

During the coronavirus crisis, other diseases emerged (or reemerged).

In July 2020, Chinese researchers identified a new transmission of the virus between animals and humans in pig slaughterhouses in the country.

This influenza virus, G4, is also believed to have pandemic potential.

We are not about to throw away our stocks of masks ... and leave our house?

Standardization of control systems

“In a context of repeated health crises, it is possible to see the health measures implemented by governments implemented in the first half of 2020, taking hold in the long term,” reads the report.

Are we going to spend the next twenty years (and more) trapped between four walls, confined and teleworking?

"I am not sure that confinement can be instituted so regularly because there may be too much saturation, analyzes Marie Ségur.

We are not made to live in this situation ”.

As we know, the health crisis weighs on mental health, especially that of young people.

A survey carried out by the Ipsos institute for the Fondation Fondamental, a network of researchers on psychiatric illnesses, published at the end of January, shows “alarming” levels of anxiety and depressive disorders among 18-25 year olds.

“These are the social and human consequences that we will drag out the longest, anticipates Cécile Désaunay.

Much longer than the health crisis as such ”.

And in the event of future pandemics, governments should be particularly vigilant on this point.

The disease is more likely to become commonplace rather than confinement.

“There are still parts of the world where being able to succumb to a virus for which there is no cure is part of everyday life,” recalls Marie Ségur.

The western world has forgotten what it was.

What could happen is a standardization of control systems, such as the immunity passport, which is already causing much ink to flow.

It is supposed to ensure that its carrier is protected against the disease because it has already been affected and cured.

Find the Future (s) section here

If the device already exists for traveling in certain countries (the vaccine against yellow fever), it could be extended to all levels of social life: to go to museums, to the cinema, to restaurants.

Another definition of freedom.

* Available to its members since December, the

Vigie 2020 Report. Disruptive Scenarios for 2040-2050

will be available to the public in March.

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