Pollution peak in the city of Shenyang on November 8, 2015 in China -

AFP

Pollution caused by fossil fuels was responsible for more than 8 million premature deaths in 2018, or 20% of the adults who died worldwide, researchers estimated.

China and India alone account for half of this toll, while another million deaths are shared between Bangladesh, Indonesia, Japan and the United States, according to this study published Tuesday in the

Environmental Research

scientific journal

.

Life expectancy reduced by more than four years in China

And the toxic cocktail of fine particles generated by the combustion of oil, gas and especially coal is responsible for at least a quarter of deaths in half a dozen countries, all in Asia.

“We often talk about the danger of burning fossil fuels in the context of CO2 emissions and climate change.

The potential health impacts are overlooked, ”said one of the co-authors, Joel Schwartz, of the Chan School of Public Health at Harvard University.

According to previous research, air pollution shortens life expectancy by more than two years, on average.

And Asia is the most affected, with a reduced life expectancy of more than 4 years in China in particular, against eight months in Europe.

A new study that doubles previous estimates

The new study doubles previous estimates of the death toll from pollution generated by fossil fuels.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), air pollution (which includes pollution from cooking or heating in homes) kills 7 million people per year, of which 4.2 million are linked to outdoor pollution.

The latest data from the “Global Burden of disease” observatory, which lists the causes of death across the world, are similar.

Both of these estimates are based on satellite data and surface surveys to determine the concentrations of fine particulate matter PM2.5.

But they do not make it possible to determine whether these particles come from the combustion of fossil fuels or the smoke of forest fires, noted co-author Loretta Mickley, a specialist in interactions between climate and chemistry at Harvard.

"With satellite data, you only see certain pieces of the puzzle," she said.

A 3D model of atmospheric chemistry to refine the estimates

To refine the table, the team of researchers used a 3D model of atmospheric chemistry that divides the Earth into blocks of 60km by 50km, coupled with data on CO2 emissions from different sectors (industry, aviation ...) and to NASA air circulation simulations.

Once the concentration of PM2.5 was known, they looked at the impact on health.

Recent studies showing an underestimation of this threat, they have developed a new risk model.

Compared to other causes of premature death, air pollution, which causes heart or lung disease, kills 19 times more people each year than malaria, 9 times more than AIDS, or 3 times more than alcohol .

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