Fretin, November 15, 2019. The marshes of Fretin.


M.Libert / 20 Minutes

It is a report that shivers down the spine.

Météo France is publishing new forecasts on the weather for 2070/2100 on Monday.

Report that Le Monde unveils exclusively and which warns, once again, of the danger of our trajectory on greenhouse gas emissions.

Météo-France draws up three scenarios: a first, particularly optimistic, which imagines a France that would achieve carbon neutrality around 2070. Second hypothesis, less ambitious: emissions continue their course before braking from 2050. Finally, last scenario: nothing exchange rate.

And unsurprisingly, we risk some cold sweats: the temperature would increase in the latter case by around 3.9 ° C compared to the reference period 1976-2005.

Clearly, it could be +6 ° in summer according to some simulations.

Hotter and longer heatwaves

And that's not all.

Whatever happens, the heat waves will multiply and intensify.

It remains to be seen to what extent.

According to this report, the number of heat wave days would be doubled in the most optimistic scenario, by three to four in the intermediate scenario and by five to ten in the most pessimistic scenario.

These hypotheses lead us to suppose that over the Mediterranean arc, the Rhône valley and the Garonne valley, for example, we may experience two-month heat waves at 50 ° ...

Consequences: tropical nights would settle in France.

In the worst case scenario, the thermometer would display over 20 degrees for up to 90 nights a year.

More rain in winter, less in summer

This change in weather would also have an impact on the rains.

"The projections simulate a slight increase at the metropolitan scale: between + 2% and + 6% depending on the horizons and scenarios," summarizes

Le Monde


This annual average, accompanied by strong uncertainties, masks a large difference between the seasons, with an increase in rainfall in winter (+ 9% to + 20%) and a decrease in summer, up to -22% at the end. century in a scenario of uncontrolled emissions.

"Which suggests droughts and difficulties for agriculture and natural environments ...

“This report clearly shows France's vulnerability to climate change.

It has slightly higher temperatures than previous projections, as well as a more marked drop in precipitation over the south of the country, ”summarizes climatologist Jean Jouzel interviewed by

Le Monde


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