Recently, the “Shen Shang Bei” property market in first-tier cities has continued to heat up.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in December 2020, the price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen increased by 14.1% year-on-year.
Since the second half of last year, the Shanghai property market has also continued to spread news of "new craze", "house grabbing", and "owners sitting on the ground and raising prices".
Except for Shenzhen and Shanghai, individual urban areas in Beijing, especially Haidian District, Xicheng District and Dongcheng District where high-quality educational resources are concentrated, have seen a rise in popularity.
What is the reason for this round of rise?
Will the regulation be upgraded in the future?
Why the property market is heating up
For a period of time, there are many reasons for the overheating trend of the property market in first-tier cities.
The "craze" and "tens of thousands of people" in individual cities are due to the limited price of newly-built commercial housing, the price of new housing is lower than that of second-hand housing in the same area, the price of second-hand housing is upside down, and the arbitrage space is large.
Buying is earning. In the past few days, there have been long queues at the gates of some banks in Shenzhen. According to industry insiders, these people are queuing to write credit reports in preparation for buying new houses.
In fact, as long as the price of a second-hand house is upside down, it is difficult to extinguish the desire of buyers to profit from it.
The rise and fall of house prices are closely related to loose credit.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that borrowing business loans to enter the property market has become one of the reasons for this round of rising housing prices in first-tier cities.
In the context of the epidemic, in 2020, in order to rescue small and micro enterprises, banks have launched low-interest operating loan products.
The so-called operating loan means that the borrower uses the real estate as collateral to apply for a loan from the bank for the company's daily operations.
Part of the business loans that should have rescued small and medium-sized enterprises have flowed into the property market.
For the property market in Beijing, Shanghai and other cities, this round of rapid growth includes school district housing in the core area, or it started from the rise in school district housing in the city center and gradually spread to the surrounding areas.
Affected by the overseas epidemic, some parents who plan to send their children to study abroad have changed their plans to allow their children to stay in China, which has created a lot of demand for school district housing.
At the same time, taking Beijing as an example, children born after the liberalization of the second-child policy a few years ago will be promoted to elementary school in the past two years.
It is precisely because of the rapid increase in the number of young children in recent years that parents buying school district housing for their children have also increased.
Although Beijing and some jurisdictions have introduced measures such as multi-school division, primary and junior high school bundling, and establishment of education groups and branch schools to share and expand high-quality resources to other regions, education resources are still difficult to achieve balance in the short term, which leads to School district housing corresponding to high-quality educational resources has always been a scarce resource, bringing opportunities for rising housing prices.
Resolute and powerful regulation
In the past few days, Shenzhen and Shanghai's property market control policies have been issued in turn.
In response to the persistent "high fever" phenomenon in Shenzhen's property market, on January 22, Shenzhen imposed penalties on the "new" on behalf of the holdings.
The Shenzhen Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development determined that it imposed a "three suspension" penalty on 12 subscribers of China Resources City Phase IV, and transferred clues about violations of laws and regulations to the public security organs.
On January 23, Shenzhen introduced measures to strengthen the review of housing qualifications, and imposed a penalty of “no purchase in Shenzhen for 3 years” on relevant persons who have violated regulations such as false divorce, holding on behalf of, and false transfers during the purchase of commercial housing.
Shanghai's property market regulation "Shanghai Ten Articles" was also released on January 21. Its key contents include: cracking down on fake divorce real estate speculation, the number of housing units within 3 years of divorce shall be determined by the total number of units before the divorce; the VAT exemption period has been changed from 2 years In 5 years, this move will help lengthen the listing and trading cycle of second-hand housing; increase the supply of land for commercial housing; and strictly prevent credit loans, consumer loans, and business loans from flowing into the real estate market in violation of regulations.
On January 25, the Shanghai foreclosure auction house was also included in the purchase restriction.
The more "hard-core" control policy is undoubtedly the "Notice on Further Strengthening the Management of Personal Housing Credit" issued by the Shanghai Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau on January 29.
The eight major measures include strict implementation of real estate loan concentration management, strict review of down payment sources of funds and solvency review, borrower qualification review and credit management, and risk investigation.
Among them, it is proposed to prevent illegal misappropriation of credit funds such as consumer loans and operating loans in the real estate sector.
During the period when Shanghai and Shenzhen successively introduced control measures, a piece of news attracted widespread attention.
Ni Hong, Deputy Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, led a team to Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places to investigate and supervise the real estate market.
This undoubtedly once again released an important policy signal for strict regulation.
Following Shenzhen and Shanghai, Hangzhou also upgraded its property market regulation measures on January 27, and further strengthened regulation in terms of purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, tax regulation, and identification standards for homeless families.
It is worth mentioning that Hangzhou has introduced measures specifically for the "new craze": listings with a winning rate of less than 10% are restricted for sale for 5 years.
This means that the "buy is earned" online celebrity disk, the arbitrage risk is increased.
There are signs of overheating in housing prices in certain areas of Beijing. Although there has been no escalation of regulatory policies for the time being, changes are also taking place.
The transaction records and transaction prices on the APP of some intermediaries have been quietly removed.
Some intermediary service personnel said that they received a request that it is strictly forbidden to pass on signals of house price increases to buyers.
However, some intermediary service personnel are also rational about the excessively rapid rise in housing prices.
An intermediary service staff told reporters: "We don't want house prices to rise too sharply. Once the regulation is over, the market will freeze quickly."
On January 28, the Beijing Real Estate Intermediary Industry Association announced that in order to resolutely curb speculative real estate speculation, the urban housing and construction departments have recently interviewed and continuously inspected real estate agencies.
The recent remarks made by Wang Fei, director of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, are enough to make the market more vigilant.
He said that Beijing will strictly investigate the illegal entry of funds into the real estate market and intermediary real estate speculation and speculation.
Overheating must be regulated
Some people say that real estate regulation is like a "hamster" game. As soon as the trend of excessively rapid housing price rises, the hammer of regulation will immediately fall.
The necessity of real estate regulation is worthy of repeated emphasis.
The stability of the real estate market is conducive to the stability and development of the entire macro economy.
Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, previously stated that real estate is the biggest "gray rhino" in terms of financial risks in my country at this stage.
Deng Yusong, deputy director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that whether it is to prevent systemic real estate financial risks, or prevent regional real estate financial risks, or real estate companies do their own risk management work, they need to establish a risk monitoring and early warning system. .
According to the causes of risks, establish a corresponding monitoring index system to make accurate judgments and early detection.
The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Wang Menghui said that we must firmly adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and improve policy coordination, control linkage, monitoring and early warning, public opinion guidance, market supervision and other mechanisms to maintain a stable real estate market run.
For a period of time, the effect of real estate regulation in individual cities was not obvious or effective in the short term. However, after a period of time, housing price rises made a comeback.
The operation of the real estate market is complex and is easily affected by many factors such as the financial environment, credit policies, educational resources, talent introduction, and the real estate cycle.
This shows that the local government that is responsible for real estate regulation needs to improve the perception of market temperature and the accuracy of regulation.
The overheating property market will be regulated.
Someone vividly compares that in the future, the regulation of the property market must begin to "extinguish the fire" at a slight start.
Reporter Kang Shu