How to Determine the Local Economic Growth Target in 2021
Tan Haojun
As localities successively announce their economic growth targets for 2021, how appropriate the economic growth targets should be, once again aroused the attention of all sectors of society.
According to media reports, as of January 29, at least 25 provinces across the country have announced their economic growth targets for 2021, and the economic growth targets of all 25 provinces are not less than 6%.
This should be a very good goal.
After all, the global epidemic is still raging, and various uncertain factors still exist. Of course, this goal is also based on a low base in 2020.
As relevant experts have said, if the base figure for 2020 is used, as long as the quarter-on-quarter "zero growth" is achieved in four quarters, the year-on-year increase can reach more than 6%.
It can be seen that all localities set the economic growth target for 2021 at around 6%, which has been carefully calculated and analyzed.
However, such results are likely to be "sweet year-on-year and bitter year-on-year", because year-on-year is only more accurate when the economy is relatively stable. In more cases, you need to look at the growth of the previous month.
To use the chain ratio to measure economic growth, we must fully consider the volatility of economic growth, and we must eliminate the impact of volatility on economic growth.
The “pit” dug by the epidemic in the first quarter of last year for economic growth needs to be filled in in subsequent developments.
The year-on-year only saw the growth on a low base basis compared with the same period last year, so it will be higher.
Under such circumstances, the "speed" sometimes confuses the eyes.
Compared with the global economy, especially the advanced economies, we can use the year-on-year comparison to show that the Chinese economy is resilient and recovering better.
When you judge economic growth, you must also look at the chain ratio, and you can make better judgments by looking at the growth situation of the chain ratio.
Under the circumstances that the overall macroeconomic environment is still relatively complex, economic performance is not the best, and the driving force of local economic development has not been completely transferred to the real economy, it is still necessary to determine economic growth targets. The key lies in how to determine and how Complete and how to evaluate.
Because it cannot reach a certain economic growth rate, the employment of residents will be affected.
Under such circumstances, it is beneficial for the local government to set an economic growth target because it needs to develop in accordance with such a target to meet the needs of residents in terms of employment and income growth.
In addition to determining the economic growth target and handling the relationship between year-on-year and ring-on-quarter, it is the quality and efficiency of economic growth.
The central government's requirements for implementing the new development concept and building a new development pattern are to achieve high-quality development and enable China's economy to truly enter a new development track.
On January 28, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized during the 27th collective study session of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee that the new development concept is a systematic theoretical system and answered a series of theories and practices on the purpose, motivation, method, and path of development. The question clarified major political issues such as our party's political position, value orientation, development model, and development path regarding development.
The whole party must fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept to ensure that my country's development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period has a good start and a good start.
Complete, accurate, and comprehensive implementation of the new development concept is the basic requirement for the implementation of the new development concept and a principle that must be followed.
Because the content of the new development concept is very rich and the connotation is also very deep, if you do not study and understand in depth, it is easy to lose sight of the other.
To formulate economic growth goals, the implementation of the new development concept must also be at the core, to be able to reflect the characteristics of China's high-quality economic development, to be conducive to building a new development pattern, and to be able to make new breakthroughs in the development of the real economy.
Especially in economically developed regions, we must set an example in implementing the new development concept, set an example in promoting high-quality development, and set an example in improving the driving force of economic growth.