It's been two weeks, 22 days after the state of emergency was declared.
Regarding the 11 prefectures that are the target areas of the state of emergency, NHK calculated the "effective reproduction number", which indicates how many people from one infected person to spread, using a simple method. It turned out to be lower than the week of.
Experts point out that "it is a good sign that it is on a downward trend, but it is a very delicate situation, and now is the time to do our best."
The number of effective reproductions is said to be that the infection spreads when it exceeds "1", while it tends to converge when it falls below "1", which is an index to see the infection status, but it is calculated based on the onset date, etc. It takes time to get an accurate number because many conditions need to be considered.
For this reason, NHK, under the supervision of an epidemiology expert and director of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Motoi Suzuki Epidemiology Center, reports daily on the data up to the 21st of the 11 prefectures that have declared a state of emergency. Based on the number of infected people, we calculated a reference value using a simple method.
The result.
Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba
The number of effective reproductions in Tokyo was 1.27 as of the 7th of this month when the state of emergency was issued, and 1.21 as of the 14th of this month, which was a week later, exceeding "1", but it was 0.96 as of the 21st. It is below "1".
In Kanagawa prefecture, it was 1.11 as of the 7th of this month and 1.45 as of the 14th of this month, but it was 0.97 as of the 21st, which was below "1".
In Saitama Prefecture, it was 1.10 as of the 7th of this month, 1.25 as of the 14th of this month, and 1.05 as of the 21st of this month, which continues to exceed "1".
In Chiba prefecture, it was 1.22 as of the 7th of this month, 1.42 as of the 14th of this month, and 1.04 as of the 21st of this month, which are still above "1".
In addition, the total of 1 metropolitan area and 3 prefectures was 1.20 as of the 7th of this month, 1.29 as of the 14th of this month, and 0.98 as of the 21st of this month, which is below "1".
Tochigi Prefecture
In Tochigi Prefecture, which was newly subject to the state of emergency from last week, it was 1.52 as of the 7th of this month and 1.20 as of the 14th of this month, but it was 0.72 as of the 21st, which is below "1".
Aichi / Gifu
Aichi Prefecture was 1.05 as of the 7th of this month, 1.13 as of the 14th of this month, and 0.91 as of the 21st, which was below "1".
Gifu Prefecture is 1.17 as of the 7th of this month, 1.01 as of the 14th of this month, and 0.91 as of the 21st of this month, which is also below "1".
Osaka prefecture, Kyoto prefecture, Hyogo prefecture
In Osaka prefecture, it was 1.26 as of the 7th of this month and 1.31 as of the 14th of this month, but it was 0.96 as of the 21st, which was lower than "1".
Kyoto Prefecture was 1.02 as of the 7th of this month, 1.22 as of the 14th of this month, and 0.99 as of the 21st, which was below "1".
Hyogo Prefecture was 0.97 as of the 7th of this month, 1.33 as of the 14th of this month, and 0.98 as of the 21st of this month, falling below "1" again.
In the two prefectures and one prefecture in Kansai, it was 1.12 as of the 7th of this month, 1.30 as of the 14th of this month, and 0.97 as of the 21st, which is below "1".
Fukuoka Prefecture
Fukuoka Prefecture continued to exceed "1" with 1.18 as of the 7th of this month, 1.28 as of the 14th of this month, and 1.02 as of the 21st of this month.
Nationwide
In Japan, it was 1.17 as of the 7th of this month, 1.27 as of the 14th of this month, and 0.96 as of the 21st of this month, which is below "1".
Professor Kazuhiro Tateda of Toho University, the chairman of the Japan Society for Infectious Diseases, said, "It cannot be said that the infection has converged, but it is good that the infection has finally fallen below" 1 "and is on a slight downward trend nationwide. On the other hand, if the number stays around "1" after next week, the number of infected people will continue to appear at the same pace as it is now, and medical care will become even tighter, forcing us to take stronger measures. It's possible. It's a very delicate situation right now, and it's important to be able to lower the number in the future. Now is the time to do our best to lift the state of emergency as soon as possible. "
Expert "Tokyo is not at a good stage for peace of mind"
Regarding the numerical value of the effective reproduction number in each region, Professor Kazuhiro Tateda of Toho University, the chairman of the Japan Society for Infectious Diseases, said, "Two weeks have passed since the state of emergency was declared in one city and three prefectures including Tokyo, compared to one time. It seems to be calm. I think that the movement and behavior of people are suppressed by the effect of the declaration, and the infection is also suppressed to some extent, but since more than 1000 infected people continue to appear a day, It is not a good stage to be relieved. From now on, we need to continue our efforts to surely reduce the number of infected people. "
Regarding the Chubu region and Kansai, "The figures for Aichi and Gifu prefectures are below" 1 ", but depending on the number of infected people per day, it may exceed" 1 "in the future. Also, caution is required. Also, 2 prefectures and 1 prefecture such as Osaka prefecture are steadily declining in a week, but it will take a little more time to see if the declaration is effective. This infection is The effect of the countermeasures is difficult to see immediately. Since it is still in a high state, it is necessary to continue doing what we can do now while carefully watching the infection situation to see if it will start to increase again. " ..
Regarding Fukuoka Prefecture, "It is thought that the effect of the state of emergency has not yet come out completely, as in Osaka Prefecture. Looking at the figures from next week onward, we can see if the measures are working. We need to evaluate it. "