Face to face丨 Will the epidemic make a massive comeback? How to celebrate the Spring Festival? Expert judgment
Since 2021, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has broken out in many places in my country, and the 40-day 2021 Spring Festival travel season is about to begin.
What is the current situation of the epidemic in my country?
What is the focus of epidemic prevention and control?
"Face to Face" interviewed Feng Zijian, deputy director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, on hot topics related to epidemic prevention and control.
Will local outbreaks in multiple places make a comeback on a large scale? How to take precautions?
After experiencing the test of the new crown epidemic in 2020, the new crown epidemic has recently broken out in many parts of our country, and many people have begun to worry about whether the epidemic will come back on a large scale?
Feng Zijian:
At present, the two main places where the epidemic is relatively serious. One is Hebei, with Shijiazhuang and Xingtai as the center. The number of patients is still increasing.
The other northeast, especially Heilongjiang in the northeast, is centered on Suihua.
In addition, there are small-scale outbreaks that spread from these two regions to other places, and local outbreaks caused by imported epidemics.
Reporter: Is
the spread of our domestic epidemic now caused by imported viruses?
Feng Zijian:
Yes, all domestic and domestic epidemics that occurred after April last year were imported from abroad.
In the past, human input was the main goal of our prevention and control. Later we discovered that many epidemics were not brought in by humans.
The new epidemic is likely to be the import of frozen seafood products that have been contaminated by foreign processing and fishing workers. After that, the virus survives in the cold chain system for a long time, and it is infected when people come in contact after the import, which further causes the epidemic.
Later, it was discovered that transportation means, transportation means, for example, a box containing luggage on a plane in Shanghai carried the virus.
These new input methods have brought us new challenges. What we have to do is to strengthen detection and strengthen prevention.
Imported goods are now being tested more and more intensely, and the sampling rate of testing is also increasing; people who come into contact with these items must strengthen monitoring and management to prevent them from being infected and causing further spread.
How long should the quarantine of imported persons with mutated new crown virus occur?
Since 2021, the global epidemic of new crown pneumonia has accelerated, with rapid growth in both the southern and northern hemispheres, with a total of more than 90 million confirmed cases.
What is worrying is that with the rapid spread of the epidemic around the world, the new coronavirus is constantly mutating.
At present, the mutant new crown virus discovered in the UK has appeared in 50 countries and regions, and the mutant new crown virus discovered in South Africa has appeared in 20 countries and regions. The extremely severe international epidemic situation has brought huge challenges to my country's epidemic prevention work.
Feng Zijian:
At present, our country's overall prevention and control strategy is very successful. Although the continuous import of viruses has caused a local epidemic, it has not formed a continuous spread, which is different from the overall pandemic pattern in the world.
Now that mutated viruses have been found in countries such as the United Kingdom, South Africa and even Brazil, these mutated viruses may have increased transmission capacity, which poses a greater challenge for us to prevent re-transmission after import.
Now our diagnostic reagents have no problem identifying these new mutant viruses. Three places in our country have detected that people entering the country have been infected with the new mutant virus, but it has not caused transmission. It was detected and controlled at the port. What we need to do is Continuously monitor this virus and work with the world to see the spread of this virus. This is an important measure to prevent imports.
On the other hand, once an epidemic is imported, we must take more resolute and effective measures to prevent the continuous spread of new mutant viruses within the country.
Reporter:
Many members of the public have said that the quarantine period for imported persons from abroad can be extended. It turned out to be 14 days. We will add 7 days and 7 days. Is it feasible?
Feng Zijian:
This really needs to be discussed.
We can take 14 days to control the vast majority. If we increase the isolation time, it will increase a lot. The cost of the entire society is not one person or one region, it is national.
There are immigrants every day, and the management time must be extended.
After the outbreak, we still have close contacts with neighbors. The secondary close contacts must be managed. The number of people is increasing and the time is prolonged. The pressure and cost of prevention and control will increase exponentially. This requires balance.
How to prevent the spread of the epidemic in rural areas?
On January 2, Shijiazhuang reported the first confirmed cases of new crowns. As of 10:00 on January 16, Hebei Province had reported a total of 688 local confirmed cases. The confirmed cases were mainly from rural areas in Shijiazhuang and Xingtai, and later occurred in Suihua, Heilongjiang. The epidemic in China also shows the characteristics of spreading in rural areas. How to prevent the spread of the epidemic in rural areas has become a new topic in our national defense work.
Feng Zijian: For
example, the transmission time in Zengcun Town, Gaocheng District, Shijiazhuang City is relatively long. Strong transmission has been formed before strict control and control were implemented. A large proportion of the detected patients have been exposed before control and control.
The virus has formed a certain scale of community transmission in this area, and it is relatively difficult to control.
On the other hand, various prevention and control facilities in rural areas, such as personnel isolation facilities, will face different difficulties and challenges for social support after the community is managed and controlled. In addition, the detection is relatively late and the spread is relatively wide. The entire epidemic control has increased the difficulty.
The rural medical service system is not like the city. The nucleic acid testing strategy that we implement in the city should be checked, and the nucleic acid detection strategy that is willing to check is more difficult to implement in the countryside. There are still a considerable proportion of rural patients who have milder symptoms in the early stage after the onset of the disease. If you do not go to a hospital with fever clinics and screening diagnosis capabilities, he will go to a health institution in the grassroots community. During this time, he will lose the signal that the disease has begun to spread. This is what we need to improve in the next stage. A very important aspect.
1 Biography 102 How to interpret the "super spread" phenomenon?
On January 13, Jilin Province notified an asymptomatic infected person with new coronary pneumonia. He had conducted training and lectures in different locations, which in turn caused mass infections.
As of 14:00 on the 17th, this "super spreader" has caused 102 local infections.
Prior to this, there have also been super-spreaders with 33 stories in Dalian, Liaoning. Super-spreaders frequently appeared, which aroused the attention of all parties.
Feng Zijian: The
phenomenon of super-spreading did not happen recently. This virus has this phenomenon from the beginning, especially in the process of global spread.
Many researchers have seen this phenomenon. A professor at the University of Hong Kong has a study. He called this phenomenon clustering or clustering.
Some people may play a very important role in the transmission process, and play an important role. One person can transmit multiple second-generation cases. This phenomenon is particularly obvious in the new crown.
Reporter:
It has nothing to do with the epidemic?
Feng Zijian: The
phenomenon of super transmission is difficult to identify which person predicts which person may constitute the phenomenon of super transmission. Our prevention and control mainly depends on where the phenomenon of super transmission occurs and what contact methods are used to easily occur. We adopt stronger and stronger methods in these places. Effective prevention and control measures.
For example, super communication often occurs at parties, banquets, or other social occasions. We must take more measures and give more suggestions to the public, reduce gatherings, reduce the scale of gatherings, and try to take some sanitary measures during the contact process.
What is the protective effect of my country's first new crown vaccine?
On December 30, 2020, my country's first new crown vaccine was approved for conditional marketing.
On December 31, 2020, the State Council’s Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism held a press conference announcing that China will implement free vaccinations against the new crown for all.
Nowadays, the free vaccination of the new crown vaccine is advancing quickly and orderly throughout the country, which has brought confidence in truly preventing the spread of the new crown epidemic in our country.
Feng Zijian:
Our current vaccines have relatively good protective effects. We have already had considerable effects in protecting disease and severe illness. We are now actively deploying, and the number of people being vaccinated is increasing. We can safely say that the number of patients can be significantly reduced. , Reducing severe illness will greatly reduce the impact of the virus on public health and reduce the loss of life.
Of course, non-vaccine measures are called "non-drug measures" internationally, including our current personnel isolation, strengthened testing, community control, etc. These measures are also effective in preventing and controlling the epidemic. If this vaccine can achieve high coverage in the future, Many measures do not need to be so strong.
What does it mean to have the new crown vaccine?
Experts generally believe that under the current complex situation of the global epidemic of the new crown epidemic, it will take time to promote the new crown vaccination work and finally establish a safe and effective immune barrier.
In addition, from the perspective of scientific development, because the new crown vaccine is not on the market soon, the specific indicators of the vaccine's effect need to be further verified.
Reporter:
How long is the protection period of the vaccine? Some people say that it is only half a year, and some people say that it is three to five years?
Feng Zijian:
There is no conclusion.
The vaccine has just been developed, and it has only been a few months since the start of human experimentation of the vaccine, and the observation period is so long.
We only know how long its antibodies can last for such a long time, and how long its immunity can be maintained. In fact, we still don’t know whether its protective performance can last for such a long time. Vaccine-induced antibodies can be maintained for a relatively long period of time, at least half a year. As for how long it can last, we need to observe further.
Reporter: After being
vaccinated, you can sit back and relax, and you can rest assured of normal production and life. Can you say that?
Feng Zijian:
Vaccines can provide very good protection to the vaccinated people. The protective effect of vaccines on the market in our country can reach close to 80%. This means that once you are exposed to the virus or infected with the virus, your risk of illness will be reduced by 80%. %, but not 100% protection, there is still the risk of disease after infection, and personal hygiene prevention measures must be taken.
When our society as a whole has achieved a very high vaccination rate, even if the disease is spreading, it will not cause a large-scale disease. Now the tension of high prevention and control can be lifted.
Facing the current epidemic situation, how should everyone celebrate the Spring Festival?
On January 28th, the 40-day Spring Festival of 2021 will begin. How to minimize the risk of spreading the new crown epidemic during the Spring Festival and Spring Festival has become the top priority for all levels of government and every citizen.
Reporter:
There may be no way to avoid the movement of people during the Spring Festival. Is there any good way?
Feng Zijian:
I think that various places have given some suggestions to minimize travel and try to stay in the local area for the Spring Festival. This may greatly reduce the risk of the spread of this disease.
Reporter:
Many people say that the Spring Festival travel season is a big test for epidemic prevention and control during this period. Can we pass the exam?
Feng Zijian:
Urban and rural areas in each region must maintain such a state of high alertness. Whenever we encounter a new epidemic, we will always find some new weaknesses, and we will overcome it to make up for it and prevent it from happening again next time.
Society is not a sophisticated instrument. Society is made up of so many people. All kinds of social life may become a weak point for this virus to invade. Therefore, we continue to experience various epidemics and continue to discover These problems are constantly improved and strengthened.
Producer丨Zhang Shifeng and Liu Bin
Reporter丨Wang Ning
Planning丨Meng Ke
Director丨Wang Huidong
Editor丨Zhang Hongfei
Video丨Liu Hongbo Yang Fan