The incidence rate is on a high plateau in Ile-de-France -

Alain JOCARD / AFP

  • In Ile-de-France, the incidence of the coronavirus is on a high plateau, around 130 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

  • Specialists fear that the effects of the holidays and the English variant plunge France into an "English-style" scenario.

  • Resuscitation services in Ile-de-France are 50% occupied by patients with Covid-19.

Curtain at 6 p.m. sharp.

This is what the inhabitants of fifteen departments in the east and south-east of France have been experiencing since January 2.

Objective: to slow down the circulation of Covid-19 as much as possible.

In the Alpes-Maritimes, the department currently the most affected by the coronavirus epidemic in France, the incidence reaches 330 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, against 130 on average in France and the curves continue to fly.

Figures that make the health authorities look pale because 67% of resuscitation beds are already occupied in the department and the effects of the holidays could be felt in the days to come.

Elsewhere, the curfew is maintained at 8 p.m. but certain departments - Allier or Côte d'Or, for example - could quickly “switch”, the general incidence rate and / or concerning those over 65 being now greater than 200 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the threshold established by the government.

In Ile-de-France, also, the indicators are scrutinized day by day.

For now, the incidence fluctuates between 119 in Hauts-de-Seine and 140 in Paris.

Among people over 65 as well - the population most at risk - this rate is around 140 in the region.

As for the resuscitation beds, they are half occupied by patients affected by Covid-19.

A high plateau

For the time being, the curves of the Ile-de-France region are relatively stable, on a "high plateau", but specialists do not rule out the hypothesis of a sudden and difficult to control increase in the epidemic, like what it happened in London.

The mixing of populations linked to school holidays, family meals, the drop in temperatures are all elements that play in favor of the circulation of the virus.

“Theoretically, we could have started to see the effects of Christmas Eve a day or two ago, but we must remain very careful and give ourselves a few more days before being able to analyze the effect of the holidays on the epidemic, especially as for the moment the consequences of New Year's Eve are not yet perceptible ”, notes Prof. François Bricaire, infectious disease specialist and member of the Academy of Medicine.

The incubation time of the disease is in fact estimated at around ten days.

The arrival of the English variant, which is much more contagious, could also change the situation.

This Tuesday, the director of public assistance for Paris hospitals (AP-HP), Martin Hirsch said that a first case had been identified in Paris.

"I look with great concern at what is happening on British soil, we cannot predict precisely what will happen in France, but we must prepare for a similar situation", insists Professor François Bricaire.

As to whether the anti-Covid vaccination campaign, set to intensify in the coming days, could slow its spread, he does not believe it at all.

“The effects will probably be too late if the incidence starts to increase rapidly.

"You only have to turn your head towards our neighbors across the Channel, who are more efficient than us in terms of vaccination, to share their concerns.

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