The Scientific Council considers "probable" an "uncontrolled resumption" of the coronavirus epidemic in January because of the "increase in contamination" linked to the end of year celebrations.
It offers three scenarios to respond to this recovery at three different time scales.
An "uncontrolled resumption of the epidemic" of Covid-19 in January is "probable", because of the "increase of contamination" caused by the end of year celebrations, warns in its latest opinion the Scientific Council which guides the government .
In this opinion given to the government on December 23 but made public only on Tuesday evening, the body offers "three options" in response "to this possible risk, but not certain".
A risk of a sharp increase in hospitalizations and resuscitations
"It is possible that an increase in contamination occurs at the end of the year, in particular on the occasion of holidays, favorable to family and friendly gatherings", writes the Scientific Council in this new opinion published on Tuesday.
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"The Scientific Council considers it likely that such an increase in contamination will cause an uncontrolled resumption of the epidemic within a few weeks, a sharp increase in hospitalizations, placements in intensive care and deaths", continues the instance.
Three options offered
First option, immediate action, "from December 28": "strict confinement", but only in the regions or cities most affected, "while leaving the possibility of return to vacationers who are there".
She was dismissed.
Second option, a response "deferred" to the beginning of January, and "adapted to the additional contamination that occurred at the end of the year".
This option "aims to react after the fact, but quickly, by slowing the circulation of the virus in early January", according to the Scientific Council.
This involves "limiting social or economic activities that may promote contamination by relying on scientific data from various surveys on places of contamination to better target restrictive measures".
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Third and last option, "a later response", based in particular on the number of new hospitalizations, and including "increased restriction measures, which can go as far as prolonged confinement".
However, the Scientific Council has a big drawback: this third option "presents the risk of intervening too late and then leading to more severe, longer and / or restrictive measures than those entering into force earlier".