Some things are sometimes hard to bear at Christmas.
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PIXABAY
Faced with the epidemic rebound in Europe, some countries have taken emergency measures, ranging from curfews to local or national containment.
In France, cases of contamination are on the rise and family reunions for the end of the year celebrations raise fears of the arrival of a third wave at the start of January.
Some elected officials are calling for local re-containments in the regions where the circulation of the virus is the strongest.
Italy, Germany, Netherlands, United Kingdom ... To face the resurgence of the coronavirus epidemic in Europe, several of our neighbors have announced restrictive measures, even going as far as national or local re-containment during the Christmas holidays. of year for some.
In France, for the time being, the government seems to exclude a re-containment after Christmas.
Only the curfew, in effect since December 15 (8 p.m. to 6 a.m.), has been introduced for the holiday season.
However, the figures are not really improving and the family reunion gives rise to fear of the arrival of a third wave at the end of the year (and of a third confinement at the same time).
The Grand-Est particularly affected
The November containment did not make it possible to approach the threshold of 5,000 daily contaminations, a figure desired by the government to drop ballast on the restrictive measures.
It is even the Minister of Health, himself, Olivier Véran, who says so.
With more than 12,000 additional cases in 24 hours, this Sunday, "we are above 10,000, that means that we are in a rather fragile, even precarious situation, we must especially not switch to the wrong side", a warned the Minister of Health, Monday on Europe 1.
And in some regions, such as Grand-Est, health indicators are even more worrying.
Last week, the incidence rate (i.e. the number of new cases recorded over the last 7 days per 100,000 inhabitants) was above the alert threshold (100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants) in 64 metropolitan departments, including the Ardennes (330), Doubs (270), Haute-Marne (264), Meuse (263), Vosges (261) and Yonne (253).
Conversely, some departments seem relatively spared.
This is the case of Finistère, Côtes d'Armor, Morbihan, Charente-Maritime, Pyrénées-Orientales and Corsica, where the incidence rate is below 20 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
Massive teleworking rather than re-containment
What if the solution was to simply reconfine locally?
This is in any case the idea of Arnaud Robinet, the mayor of Reims (LR), who "proposes to reconfine either on a territorial basis or at the national level (...) from the 25th or the 26th until the start of the school year. , that is to say until January 3 or 4 "in order" to allow a return to almost normal life at the start of the school year ".
For the elected official, local reconfigurations could be decided in the departments where the situation is the most worrying.
For Didier Guillemot, epidemiologist at the Institut Pasteur, this is a solution that could work: “From an epidemiological point of view, confining locally or regionally, that could be very useful and less burdensome for a large part of the French population. ".
But the specialist nevertheless believes that the measure would be difficult to implement: “The political organization of France complicates matters.
Who will manage these local reconfinements?
Regional presidents?
The prefects?
They are not necessarily the best placed, ”he explains.
“Confining locally, that's what they do in England.
This is understandable logic, because there are great disparities in the regions.
We could imagine this device in France, if the figures really ignited in a department, ”recognizes Martin Blachier, epidemiologist and public health doctor.
But for him, only massive teleworking could make it possible to lower the figures: “In September, there were only 10% of employees teleworking.
This is what revived the epidemic.
If we want to avoid a third wave, we must impose teleworking until mid-January.
Putting the word confinement doesn't help much except to undermine the morale of the French, ”he explains.
Return to strict confinement, as in March?
Professor Djillali Annane, head of intensive care at the Raymond Poincarré hospital in Garches (Hauts-de-Seine), pleads for a national measure, arguing that a "local re-containment will have little effect": "C ' is what Germany did and now it is going back on its strategy and confining it nationally.
As for England, the government has announced the reconfinement of London and the south-east of the country, but it will probably extend it to the whole territory in the coming days ”.
And for the specialist, we even need strict national confinement: “The only solution is national reconfinement, from December 26, on the same model as that of March 16.
We have the impression that the figures are lower than our neighbors, but it is a decoy.
Today's measures do not allow the epidemic to be controlled ”.
The other interest of national confinement?
Align with our European neighbors, believes the head of intensive care: “A number of neighboring countries have confined themselves nationally simultaneously.
It's not for nothing.
There is an opportunity to synchronize with these countries.
What we need is European containment, all the more so with the appearance of the new strain in the United Kingdom ”.
“We should not think in a comparative way, the situations are different depending on the country and the time.
We have to look at our indicators, those of hospitalizations and intensive care admissions, and make decisions based on that ", estimates Didier Guillemot who does not exclude" a speech by Emmanuel Macron on December 26 to announce a re-containment on the 27th ”.
The French should have a few more days of respite before a possible ax the day after the Christmas holidays.
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