It is necessary, of course, to pay tribute: the features of the future that awaits us after the inevitable end of the crisis (and any crises sooner or later end), emerging now, right in the midst of our contemporary reality, the outlines of some future “new stability” look every month, at least in information field, more and more bizarre.
For example, the Russian Federation and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, it would seem, quite recently, it was difficult even to suspect of excessive mutual sympathy: no, the states, of course, interacted with each other, and even collaborated.
And Russian President Putin at one of the summits, I remember, even beaten five in a friendly way to the Arab crown prince.
That is, there were also some personal mutual sympathies: Putin generally respects people with a firm stand that is understandable to those around him, whatever it may be.
But at the same time, everyone was well aware of whose specific "strategic partner" the Saudi dynasty was and remains.
And this was the very "reality given to us in sensations" that no one even tried to cancel.
Nevertheless, the avalanche-like changes in the outside world seem to be gradually changing the strategic preferences of the Saudis as well.
And the coming to power of a strategic ally of the kingdom, Democrat Biden, who is clearly not going to sort out the world oil crisis in any way, did not at all, so to speak, "reveal in new colors" this also becoming a strategic trend.
And just simply stressed.
Here, in general, everything is simple.
American mining, which until recently confidently rose to the top positions in the world, is not just going through hard times today.
It just completely exhausted its growth resource even before the crisis associated with the pandemic.
In particular, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas recently cited the results of a poll in which the majority of local oil executives (two-thirds, to be exact) are critically convinced that American production has already reached its peak.
Which, as we know, is followed by an inevitable decline.
And in order for the oil industry in the United States to at least simply survive, not as a tool exclusively for domestic use, but as a strategic global player, at the current stage of the development of the American economy, it must be simply saved.
Which, by the way, was well understood by the previous American President Donald Trump.
At the same time, solving issues not only with international partners about maintaining prices at a level at least above the average cost of American production (in which, moreover, let's be completely honest, partners - they are global competitors - are not very interested).
But also solving a bunch of internal problems, in fact, theoretically unsolvable by the usual methods, including with reinvestment and financial recovery of the industry.
With what there are now completely seams.
And what the democrats who came to power, even those who traditionally disliked oil workers, will definitely not be doing - this is simply not included in the list of priorities of the US Democratic Party.
No, on purpose, of course, no one will nail the American oil industry.
Moreover, it will not even collapse overnight: for today, production in 2021 is planned at the level of the current, albeit crisis, 2020.
And although it looks, at first glance, rather ridiculous, this is already an achievement.
She, most likely, will simply be left without support, rightly somewhere believing that the salvation of the drowning is the work of the drowning themselves.
Some, probably, from the American oilmen will even survive after that - this is undeniable.
But it is better to forget about such a phenomenon as the “great shale revolution” (at least for the coming years, if not decades) - this is just a fait accompli.
This outgoing Trump, with his idea of re-industrializing America, could somehow, at the cost of colossal super-efforts (remember his parallel calls to the Saudi prince and Putin?) global markets.
The democrats who have replaced him simply do not need it.
Including purely political.
In their universe, everything, in general, will come off, you know, and so.
Biden Vaughn, instead of the promised American LNG, offers the Europeans to attend to green energy.
For Europe would be better off giving up Russian pipeline gas, but America simply won't have anything to replace this Russian gas with.
Well, there won't be this American LNG in the immediate historical perspective.
Let the windmills build.
Delov something.
However, these wonderful twists and turns of American post-crisis domestic policy are still somewhat outside the scope of our discussion of the Russian-Arab dialogue today.
And they are only necessary to state the fact that Russia and the Kingdom of the SA, one way or another, will now also have to build some special relationship.
And this process, of course, is not momentary, but it seems that all the prerequisites for its implementation already exist.
So, in particular, last Saturday it became known that the OPEC + countries (let's not be honest, the main players there are the Russian Federation and the CA) can extend the agreement, which now regulates almost 40% of world oil production, and after the spring of 2022, when it expires.
At least, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdelaziz bin Salman said this at a briefing after a bilateral meeting with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak in Riyadh.
And so it will most likely be.
At least until the moment when it is beneficial to both high contracting parties.
But at this point in time, to all appearances, this is already beneficial for the parties in the long term.
Because the systemic strengthening of relations between such different (despite the possible personal sympathies of Putin with the princes) players with such different spheres of interest can be seen simply with the naked eye.
So, in particular, the Russian minister Novak proudly stated for a reason that the trade turnover between the two countries in 2020 simply actually increased by 60% (and this, as you understand, oil is not accountable to Novak - here both powers act as sellers , but not buyers, so 60% growth is definitely not to do with it).
And the Saudi Minister, Prince Abdel-Aziz bin Salman, also said for a reason that by the March meeting of the IGC, the parties will present 74 promising joint projects.
Moreover, according to the prince, they cover a wide variety of areas of cooperation and will be implemented not theoretically, but in the very next few years: apparently, the parties understand both the inevitability of strategic cooperation and its (in the future) very difficult nature, therefore, it is banal to try, what is called, stake out a clearing.
Our countries have too different goal-setting.
And compromise is too inevitable.
And this is one of the reasons why both the Russian Federation and the kingdom no longer just need these "special relations", but are vital (and in the political classes of both powers, apparently, they are beginning to understand quite pragmatically).
At least, it looks quite logical, no matter from which side you look: both Russia and Saudi Arabia, in general, thanks to Trump's determination and persistence, but they were ready to work with the interests of American partners in mind.
As part of, so to speak, the "big oil troika", which was almost officially called OPEC ++.
Well, now, when the third participant demonstratively removes himself from the “big three” and, presumably, “self-saws” from the global market, the remaining players only have to play either monopoly (and eat each other, which in the current circumstances is simply pointless, because there will be enough markets for everyone), or unite in some formal (or informal) agreement - but at least call it a cartel.
What, in fact, was OPEC before, and now - for quite objective circumstances and somewhere even against the will of its participants - it is OPEC +.
And this new center of power, possibly, will be, among other things, one of the foundations of the very contours of new global stability, which we are trying to discern already in the not so distant future, as it turns out.
Which will surely come (all crises end sooner or later), if the world, of course, will be able to overcome the current instability without an unnecessary big war.
The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.