In Germany, power generation plants.

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ODD ANDERSEN / AFP

2020 is shaping up to be one of the three hottest years, the UN warned on Wednesday, and there is at least a one in five chance by 2024 that the temperature increase will temporarily exceed the fateful threshold of 1 , 5 ° C of the Paris Agreement.

As temperatures break year by year records, the decade 2011-2020 will be the hottest on record and the six years since 2015 are the hottest on record, according to the provisional annual report of the Meteorological Organization (WMO) on the state of the global climate.

And, “2020 has unfortunately been another extraordinary year for our climate,” said WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas.

From January to October, the global average temperature was about 1.2 ° C warmer than the base period 1850-1900, so 2020 is on course to become one of the three warmest years on record. recorded on the planet.

The WMO assessment is based on five datasets, all of which currently rank 2020 as the second warmest year to date, after 2016 and before 2019.

Classification not yet final

The difference between the three warmest years is small, however, and the exact ranking may change once data becomes available for the entire year.

“Years of record heat have generally coincided with a strong El Niño episode, as was the case in 2016. La Niña tends to cool global temperatures, but the anomaly that appeared this year was not enough to curb the warming. », Observed Petteri Taalas.

According to the WMO, there is at least one chance in five that the global average temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5 ° C by 2024. However, one of the objectives of the Paris Agreement, signed in December 2015 by 195 countries, is to contain the rise in temperatures to 1.5 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era.

Extreme heat, fires, floods, increasing acidity of the oceans, record hurricane season in the Atlantic ... all signs that climate change has continued its inexorable progression this year, "amplifying the threats that the Covid-19 pandemic poses to economic stability as well as human health and safety, ”warns the WMO.

The pack ice worries

In terms of bad news, let's remember one in particular: the Arctic sea ice reached its annual minimum in September, ranked second among the least extensive in 42 years of satellite observations.

The extent of Antarctic sea ice in 2020, on the other hand, was similar to, or slightly greater than, the average for the past 42 years, while Greenland continued to lose mass, albeit at a slower rate. than in 2019.

As for the oceans, which store over 90% of the excess energy that accumulates in the climate system due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, it has become clear in recent decades that heat is absorbed from more and more quickly, points out the report.

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