Chinanews, Beijing, December 1 (Peng Jingru) "Under the background of city-specific policies, the differentiation of the real estate market in each city will become the norm."
On December 1, the "China Housing Big Data Analysis Report (2020)-Urban Housing Price Warning and Real Estate Brand Value Measurement" released by the Housing Big Data Project Team of the Institute of Financial Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences at the 2020 China Real Estate Investment and Financing Summit Forum "It is pointed out that the emergence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has accelerated the advent of the era of great differentiation in the real estate market.
Data map: real estate.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
The report believes that market differentiation helps avoid systemic risks in the real estate market.
In the era of great differentiation, it is difficult to effectively judge regional real estate market trends with simple macro analysis tools. The risk of local housing prices rising and falling will become the focus of preventing real estate market risks.
Affected by the housing market’s own rational regression factors and the impact of the epidemic, housing prices in some cities have fallen to a certain extent this year.
According to the year-on-year monitoring of the Weifang Index, from October 2019 to October 2020, the annual decline in house prices in 9 cities was more than 5%, with the highest annual decline of 9%.
If compared with historical peaks, the downward trend in housing prices in some cities is even more obvious.
According to the monitoring of the Weifang Index, from the historical high of house prices in various cities to October 2020, 20 cities have adjusted their house prices from the highest point by more than 10%, of which 9 cities have adjusted their house prices from the highest point by more than 15%.
Among them, Langfang, Hebei was the city with the highest rate of reduction, reaching 46.9%, while Qingdao and Tianjin dropped by more than 20% from the peak.
Screenshot from "China Housing Big Data Analysis Report 2020"
Looking at the time when house prices in various cities have changed from rising to falling, there are two types of phased inflection points in these cities: one is around the first half of 2017, represented by Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities, mainly in the first half of 2017. The real estate regulation in second-tier cities has been adjusted for about three and a half years. The other category is around the second half of 2018, mainly in third- and fourth-tier cities, mainly triggered by the ebb tide of monetization shed reform, which has been adjusted so far. It took about two and a half years.
From the point of view of the decline, housing prices in these cities had peaked in stages before the epidemic began.
The fall in housing prices is not entirely due to the impact of the epidemic.
The report believes that although stable operation is an important goal of real estate policy, a certain range of fluctuations is also the normal state of market operation.
The reasons for the decline in housing prices are more complex, and may be due to macro-environmental factors as well as the city's own oversupply.
“While housing prices in some cities have fallen, there are still some cities that have seen rapid increases in housing prices.” The report pointed out that some of these cities have experienced a wave of increases since 2016, and are currently experiencing a second wave of increases.
Some cities are still part of the aftermath of the first wave of upswings since 2016 or make up for them.
The report believes that the reasons for the increase in housing prices are also more complicated. There may be macro environmental factors, there may also be reasons for insufficient supply in the city itself, and there may be major positive economic fundamentals in the city.
In addition, there is a relatively rapid increase that is difficult to be directly identified. For example, the housing prices of related similar cities have fallen rapidly, but the housing prices of the city have risen slightly.
"The era when housing prices only rise but not fall has passed. Monitoring and early warning of local housing prices falling will become an important aspect of market monitoring and early warning," the report said.