November almost equals the number of deaths in March

UNDER REGISTRATION

• ALEJANDRA GONZÁLEZ MORENO

• ANGEL DÍAZ

  Madrid

Monday, November 30, 2020 - 23:27

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  Coronavirus in Spain

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  The danger of reopening at Christmas ... and having to close in January

The month that has just ended leaves a strange feeling and an important epidemiological lesson: the

has managed to bend the contagion curve in Spain, but the virus remains uncontrolled and

since the last report in October.

It has been the worst month of the second wave and, in fact, the number of confirmed deaths has been

that, according to the latest update, were registered in March.

The cumulative incidence in the whole

in Spain has fallen from 485.28 cases in 14 days per 100,000 inhabitants on October 30, the last day it was updated that month, to 275.51 reflected on Monday Health, on the last day of November.

But nevertheless,

(4,087 in October), and almost multiplied by four

at September

(2,697).

November has therefore ended as the worst month since spring and the third with the most deaths in the pandemic.

In April we suffered 15,672 diagnosed deaths, but the harsh confinement made the number plummet

.

Half a year later, November has tripled the deaths in the month in which the de-escalation began.

If the beginning of autumn showed us that transmission can get out of control quickly, November has taught us that the sacrifices needed to lower it take much longer to be noticed in hospitals and in the number of deaths.

With the Constitution Bridge and Christmas just around the corner, the risk is that the next few days interaction will increase and, with it, the transmission, according to Daniel López Codina, of the

Computational Biology and Complex Systems Group

(Biocomsc) of the Polytechnic University of Barcelona. If the current decline in cases reverts and we are approaching a new wave, "we may have a major problem," warns this expert on the evolution of the pandemic.

«We would be growing from an incidence higher than what we had in summer.

So,

It must be avoided.

So a question arises: given the images of crowds in the streets and the illegal parties that still take place every weekend, are we prepared to face the parties sensibly?

“The message is: let's be responsible.

.

Let's take it seriously », responds Josep Jansà, responsible for Preparation and Response of the

European Center for Disease Prevention and Control

(ECDC), based in Sweden.

“The virus is very transmitted and can have a major impact.

It can limit many things, as we have already seen: health, the economy, social relations, mental health ... ", he reasons." That is why we must take measures, not because a ministry, an autonomous community or a city council say.

Because

.

Because, otherwise, the impact will be worse ”, warns Jansà.

"If some communities begin to decrease the intensity of the control measures, we will be able to see an increase in the speed of spread and, with it, an increase in hospitalizations, ICU and mortality", indicates, for his part, López Codina.

“The fact that we now have a good situation should not make us think that we have the issue resolved.

", considers.

"The most restrictive measures imply a faster improvement and, therefore, fewer hospitalizations, less ICU and less mortality", argues López Codina.

“That's why I always say that I would like to be Ireland;

because, with an epidemiological situation better than ours, they took higher measures and improved even more », illustrates this expert.

«It is elementary.

and the consequences are going to be more extensive in time and, in total, more important ».

His approach coincides with that expressed last week by the

Spanish Society of Public Health and Health Administration

(Sespas): «Do not take harsh response and containment measures to save economic activity

.

The countries that have more infected, hospitalized and deceased are those that also have the worst economic performance, “says the Sespas statement.

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