At the Toulouse University Hospital, during the training of caregivers in the procedures for the care of Covid-19 patients.

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B. Colin / 20 Minutes

  • Hospital services in Occitanie recorded a 30% drop in Covid-19 hospitalizations over the past week.

  • However, the intensive care units are still overloaded, with a two-week lag in relation to the hospitalization curve.

  • According to a statistical study from the Toulouse University Hospital, confinement in the urban area of ​​the Pink City made it possible to break the curve of the circulation of the virus and the rate of positivity of the tests.

    But until when ?

Taken together, all the indicators indicate that the decline of the coronavirus epidemic is on track in Toulouse and more generally in the Occitanie region.

"We have recorded a drop in admissions to conventional hospitalization in the region of 30% in one week, the incidence rate is approaching the threshold of 150 positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants and the reproduction rate has fallen below 1", Pierre Ricordeau, director of the Regional Health Agency, said on Friday.

Before punctuating that the level of the epidemic remains high in the region.

At the Toulouse University Hospital, 166 Covid patients are in fact still hospitalized, far from the epidemic peak reached during this second wave with 220 patients at the CHU.

But, with a delay, there is still a large number of people in intensive care, since 62 are still in critical care, including 42 in intensive care.

Situation update # COVID19 CHU de #Toulouse


1509 patients

discharged

since the start of the epidemic


164 deaths since the start of the epidemic


including 59 deaths since November 1


We are doing our best.

But help us! #TousContreLeCovid # TousMobilisesTousResponsables # hospital pic.twitter.com/TwiuAhu6rU

- Toulouse University Hospital (@CHUdeToulouse) November 20, 2020

For health professionals, confinement has therefore clearly played its role over the past three weeks, releasing the pressure in recent days.

Chloé Diméglio, biostatistician in the Toulouse University Hospital virology laboratory, had already demonstrated the crucial role played by wearing a mask or even bar closures in the circulation of the virus in the Toulouse area.

She has run her mathematical models again in recent weeks and has been able to calculate the constraint that applies to the spread of the virus.

The confinement broke the viral dynamics of SARS-Cov2 in the urban area.

- Chloe Dimeglio / Toulouse University Hospital

With the curfew and the measures taken previously such as wearing a mask, we were on a constraint applied to the circulation of the virus of 37%.

“These various measures had made it possible to smooth out the dynamics, confinement breaks this curve and lowers the stress by 9%.

The positivity rate of the tests is 10 to 12% and, according to forecasts, we will be at 7.6% on December 1, ”explains Chloé Diméglio.

2% positivity rate only in February

Still far from the 2% indicated by the government as the threshold to have the virus under control.

To achieve this in the urban area of ​​Toulouse, it would be necessary to remain confined until the beginning of February according to the mathematical model of the biostatistician, the population of the Pink City and its region having a collective immunity rate that does not yet exceed the 5%.

“The longer we wait to deconfin, the more this test positivity rate will drop and the easier it will be to manage, even if we do not have to be at a 2% level to have the virus under control.

Today we have a drop in the rate, but intensive care and hospitalization services are still very much in demand and are just starting to stabilize.

The question is to know when to deconfine and how so as not to find oneself again in a difficult situation quickly, ”says the researcher.

Our dossier on containment

And this is the whole difficulty for the health authorities not to deconfin and reconfine 15 days later.

Certain departments, such as the Gard or the Hautes-Pyrénées are found with test positivity rates above 17%, with more recent spreads of the virus than in other sectors of the region which had taken measures to restriction earlier.

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  • Covid 19

  • Coronavirus

  • Deconfinement

  • Hospitalization

  • Hospital

  • Confinement

  • Toulouse