A patient taken care of by Samu in Toulouse.

Drawing.

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Tristan Reynaud - Sipa

  • For hospitalizations and deaths, the epidemic situation in Occitania is now worse than in the spring.

  • In one week, 1,100 more patients were admitted to the hospital and renimations are 95% complete.

  • If containment is strictly observed, the peak could according to the ARS take place around November 15.

    But this is the optimistic scenario.

In Occitania, the epidemic peak of spring is no longer historic.

The second wave of Covid-19 is stronger, much stronger, according to the regional health agency which unveiled a very grim picture on Tuesday: 1,100 people were admitted to hospital in one week and the number of patients taken in charge in November now exceeds by 80% that of the peak of activity of the month of April.

In intensive care, still in comparison with spring, the figure is + 25%: "Even if the resuscitations are shorter", out of a capacity increased to 650 places, "90% are occupied", underlines Pierre Ricordeau, the general manager of the ARS.

In eight days, 200 people died in the region, including 63 nursing home residents.

In these establishments for the elderly, 125 clusters are still in progress and the week ended with the discovery of 818 positive cases among the residents, 428 among the staff.

The regional incidence rate of the virus is around 400 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with many disparities.

Pierre Ricordeau indicates that it is still on the rise in five departments: Hautes-Pyrénées, Gers, Lot, Aude and Lozère.

This also means that it is declining elsewhere, especially in Hérault and Haute-Garonne, where however the last known rates (stopped on November 6) remained very high, respectively at 714 and 569 according to Public Health France.

November 15 or December for the recession?

So what is going to happen now?

Like the national scenarios, the Institut Pasteur also makes regional projections, based on the famous “R0”, the number of people infected by the same patient.

If the latter is 0.9, the peak of this second wave could occur in Occitania around November 15.

If it is even 1.2, then the curve continues to rise, beyond December 1st.

[# Covid19] Why is compliance with containment essential in #Occitanie?

Caution is still required: projections from the Institut Pasteur confirm that nothing has yet been won against the virus.


To limit contamination, do not relax our efforts… pic.twitter.com/N0awvpc4gm

- ARS Occitanie (@ARS_OC) November 10, 2020

To avoid the worst-case scenario, Pierre Ricordeau announces, quite solemnly that "the days to come are crucial".

In addition to barrier gestures, he urges residents to “limit their social interactions”.

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