Can we really speak of a shift in the coronavirus in France?

A transfer of patients between regions in France -

• "Quiver", "slowdown", "slower progression", for a few days, the qualifiers have multiplied to evoke a possible improvement in the health situation in France concerning the coronavirus.

• Olivier Véran and Jérôme Salomon nonetheless call for the greatest caution and take care to evoke this positive development in the conditional.

• Between optimistic figures and lack of perspective, "20 Minutes" takes stock.

A "shudder" and "a form of slowing down" of the circulation of the Covid-19, according to Olivier Véran this Sunday in the program 

(France Inter / franceinfo

), "a slower progression" and even "a beginning of shift ”in Ile-de-France, according to Jérôme Salomon during his press point on Monday.

On the coronavirus, the good news is whispered with the greatest caution.

If the figures of the last few days are rather optimistic, it still seems a bit early to ignite.

takes stock of the situation.

What do we rely on to speak of shifting?

Several figures can support the words of the Minister of Health.

The national incidence rate thus rose from a peak of 497 cases per 100,000 inhabitants on October 27, to 457 cases on November 5.

The test positivity rate is also slowing down, dropping from an average of 21% last week to 19.8% on Monday, November 9, when it has known a continuous and frank increase for weeks.

"As much the incidence depends directly on the number of cases and therefore of tests, and can then be subjective, as much the rate of positivity which stagnates and decreases, shows a real tremor", assures the epidemiologist Pascal Crépey, for whom one can de excludes "the thesis of a saturation or a limit of the number of tests".

The R (reproduction rate) also started to drop from 1.4 to 1.3, again after weeks of continuous increase.

Is this drop in numbers due to confinement?

No, depending on the time lag between the measures and their effects in the figures (about two to three weeks), the first effects of the confinement, which began on Thursday, October 29, should be able to be seen at the end of the week, "or even at the beginning of next week. ", Estimates Pascal Crépey.

The current decline is more linked to the combination of the All Saints' Day holidays, drastically reducing contamination between minors, and the first effects of the curfew.

"Often in France, we make the mistake of dwelling on a single explanation, while each increase or decrease depends on several factors", supports Eric Billy, researcher in immuno-oncology at Stasbourg and member of the collective "on the side of Science ".

Nevertheless, the disparities in the evolution of the virus on the territory seem to attest to a curfew effect.

In Ile-de-France, the incidence has thus increased from 536 to 410 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, in Saint-Etienne from 1,259 to 99, in Lille from 1,000 to 700, in Paca from 536 to 500… “On the contrary, in my region of Strasbourg, not subject to the initial curfew, we are not witnessing this decrease, ”continues Eric Billy.

This does not exclude an effect of All Saints' Day, which could therefore be canceled with the return of the students to the classroom.

Answer in two weeks, when the return of the students since the start of the school year will be seen in the figures, delay requires.

Why should we remain cautious?

The memory of Marseille in September is still alive.

So already subject to local restrictive measures, the city noted a slight decline in cases during the week of September 20, when the government announced the closure of bars, restaurants and sports halls in the city and Aix- in Provence.

Criticism is made by local mayors of these new measures when, precisely, the figures are on the decline.

Finally, this lull will only last a few days, and the curves will take off again soon after.

"When we only look at the figures for the last few days, we can have a slightly biased view: poor data reporting, one-off exception, Public Health France bug," warns Pascal Crépey.

This was particularly the case in Marseille, "where it was a test stopper by Public Health France", supports Eric Billy.

Once the tests were reassembled and the data updated, the sag was gone.

This is why more and more curves are made with weekly averages, in order to counter potential disruptive effects.

Currently, "when we look at the indicators as a whole, they all seem to be converging in the right direction, which is positive," encourages Pascal Crépey.

For Eric Billy, however, it will not be necessary to settle for a few advantageous days, but "wait for a real trend over one or two weeks", to start giving yourself a sigh of relief.

Olivier Véran did not say anything else during his interview on Sunday, indicating that "by the end of the week, we will have consolidated data", which will allow a better assessment of the situation.

Despite everything, is the worst still ahead of us?

Yes.

Even in the optimistic hypothesis where the shift is verified and continues, the peak of hospitalizations, resuscitations and deaths, by lag effect of ten days between each stage, is inevitably to come and cannot be avoided.

Indeed, if we assume that we have just passed the highest plateau of contaminations a few days ago and that now the trend will be downward, this high plateau of contaminations will become a high plateau of hospitalizations, then of resuscitations. and therefore death.

The next few weeks will be difficult anyway.

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• Olivier Véran

• epidemic

• Coronavirus

• Covid 19

• Health