In fact, the majority of our population, alas, is far from the best of the worlds, so it is still completely and unclear what tectonic changes in modern world economic architecture can occur in the very near future in the case of a seemingly inevitable election to the post of 46- second president of the United States, who is in a very peculiar relationship with reality, Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr.
And the situation, in general, develops directly in full accordance with the classics of American literature: “That year in the United States, among other misfortunes, there was a Democratic President” (O. Henry, “Another Victim of Cupid”).
One simple example.
According to Reuters, citing its source in the cartel, OPEC leaders have already expressed fears that problems in the oil industry may begin due to the alleged victory of Democrats in the US presidential election.
Officially, the Arabs associate this primarily with the possible return of the United States to a nuclear deal with Iran and, accordingly, with the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil production.
Plus, with the weakening of the sanctions policy of the new US administration against Venezuela (it is no coincidence that Maduro, unrecognized by America, has already congratulated Joe Biden on his election - and it is quite possible to understand the person in this matter).
And, of course, Reuters associates the problems in world production with the potentially aggressive policy of the Democrats towards the Russian Federation: five minutes later, the Democrat President has already named Russia the main global threat to the United States.
If Russia leaves OPEC +, Reuters argues, the deal to hold on to oil production will simply collapse, because earlier it was allegedly the outgoing Donald Trump who contributed to the participation of the Russian Federation in it.
Of course, this is, to put it mildly, not entirely true.
Neither President Trump, in particular, nor the United States as a whole, in principle had and does not have anything to do with OPEC +: it was a deal between the Saudis representing the interests of OPEC and the "non-aligned countries" represented primarily by the Russian Federation.
And if the Russian Federation had not been in the deal, then - work America, do not work - there would be no deal, because OPEC would have no one to conclude it with.
And then, forgive me, but there was such a dirty joke in tsarist Russia: "Here - as in Poland, and in Poland whoever has more - he is both the gentry and the pan."
So: America here initially had a lot less, there is already nothing to talk about.
And in general it was planned that this is our cow with the Arabs - we will milk it.
So, in fact, they lived - OPEC + separately, the United States separately - exactly before the "covid crisis".
And no one particularly bothered us or them in this.
Well, Trump and the United States joined the global oil deal a little later, in the spring of this year, when the need arose to save the oil industry in the United States itself.
The cost of production in which is much higher than that of their Saudi and / or Russian counterparts, not to mention other accompanying encumbrances.
And this "big deal" (aka OPEC ++), at the origins of which Donald Trump really stood, as well as the corresponding American industry, with the arrival of the Democrats in the White House, can really be caused by a real one and, as it is customary to denote it in the USA, completely "unacceptable damage".
And not at all because Biden and his comrades are such villains and so do not like the American energy.
And just because the industry, even without this arrival of democrats, was in ... as if it were softer ... a semi-comatose state (one might say, in intensive care), and then, by the way, who worked pretty well as a shuttle and showed simply miracles of diplomacy (rushing a beam of electrons between the Russian president and the Arab sheikhs) is the American President Trump.
Incidentally, he made the whole world talk about the new “big oil troika” as a decisive factor in the upcoming world oil production.
And in order to repeat such a miracle, America will at least need a new President Trump, who then did the virtually impossible.
Simply because both the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the state of the Russian Federation were quite comfortable on this oil Olympus even together - without any Americans.
And Trump had to work hard to literally impose an unpredictable self on them in this "big deal".
And yes, it wasn't done by the president - it was done by businessman Trump.
And it was done with one goal: to save the oil production of the United States, to save - even with a scarecrow, even with a carcass - the “great shale revolution” as well.
To all appearances, the democrats do not even have such tasks, alas.
And in Biden's entourage, by the way, no one will deliberately ruin American oil production: if it is not stupid to interfere with it under current conditions, it will calmly die a natural death by itself and without outside help.
Simply because no one will even think to save it: the Democratic Party has somewhat different priorities.
What, by the way, Biden quite honestly spoke quite officially before the elections: the American oil industry is by no means a priority of interests of these bright people who, among other things, advocate renewable energy and other fashionable green values.
To our unpretentious taste, by the way, not much different from the "rainbow" and BLM - adjusted for oil and gas.
Here something else is more interesting.
To all appearances, the collapse of the oil industry in the United States by the democratic elite coming to power has been rather coldly calculated.
This, in particular, is evidenced by Biden's statement on the return to the format of "climate agreements".
And his promise to stop the distribution of new licenses for the development of oil and gas fields (which in the medium term will reduce production on the US shelf - not even shale, but traditional! - by about a third).
To all appearances, it won't take much time for this: we have already noted above the state of the industry - just push the falling one.
Another thing is what will happen in this case in related industries.
For example, gas production without oil on shale is absolutely meaningless - this is the basics.
And without shale mining, what are the “LNG production capacities on the East Coast” then ?!
And then what will happen with the "conquest of the world LNG market" ?!
And how will this new approach be dealt with not only by the United States (God bless them, the United States) - what will the world market itself, which has already set its sights on a long and decisive struggle, to do with these new inputs?
And just do not need to sigh with relief, like: “But we will be allowed Nord Stream 2”.
No, they will not be allowed if we do not take this permission ourselves.
The fight against the Nord Stream 2 project will be continued by the Americans with any winners in the political race and even with zero supplies of American LNG to Europe.
Because this is not connected with the need to sell your LNG, but with the need to ensure that the German manufacturing industry, which is competitive with the American one, does not receive cheap energy raw materials.
The funny thing is that it is the manufacturing industry in the United States that is traditionally considered the financial base of the Democrats, so here Biden and Trump will have a sudden and friendly consensus.
Which, however, has happened before about the anti-Russian sanctions in the field of energy between Republican Trump and the US Democratic Congress.
And astonished Europe, instead of Russian pipeline gas, they will simply, excuse me, be forced to sell not American shale LNG, but some kind of green energy.
The same, in general, horseradish and radish, only a view in profile.
And for this it is not at all necessary some American oil industry and the production of LNG so carefully preserve.
In a word, at the initial stage, nothing seems to change much for us or for the Europeans.
Europeans are likely to be even slightly favored.
But that is why they are global tectonic changes, that you begin to notice them only when it is already impossible to change anything in this dynamics.
In a word, the leaders of the OPEC countries are not accidentally worried.
And in the Kremlin, by the way, I think they are scratching their heads too.
Although, in principle, we will be satisfied with any course of events - and even more so if oil and gas producers from the United States start to leave the global commodity markets as an exporter.
And the leaders of countries - consumers of energy raw materials, especially in continental Europe, it is high time to wake up: in this world, obviously, truly global changes will take place, and their nature must be calculated.
And so far this miscalculation looks quite alarming for Europe: it is not a fact that in the brave new world, which will be built by global elites, there is generally a place for such a concept as “sovereign European economy”.
If only as a food base, and even then not for very long.
In a word, I am afraid that we will all have extremely difficult, but very interesting times.
The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.